Sterling Climbs as UK Core Inflation Accelerates, Dollar Softens Ahead of FOMC Decision
| Action Insight Daily Report 9-18-24 |
Sterling Climbs as UK Core Inflation Accelerates, Dollar Softens Ahead of FOMC Decision |
Sterling strengthened across the board today after UK CPI data revealed reacceleration in core inflation. The uptick in core CPI provides additional support for hawkish members of the BoE's MPC, bolstering the case for a rate hold at tomorrow's decision. A rate cut is still expected in November, when new economic projections will be available. But for the near term, the question is whether Sterling can maintain its momentum and extend its rally against the Euro before then. On the other hand, Dollar is weakening as markets await the much-anticipated FOMC rate decision later today. With just hours to go, market sentiment remains split, with a 60% probability of a 50bps rate cut and a 40% chance of a 25bps reduction. US stock markets are treading water in early trading as traders exercise caution ahead of this pivotal event. In addition to the rate decision, Fed will also release updated economic projections and the dot plot. While the size of the rate cut will grab headlines, the broader outlook—especially the projected path of easing for the remainder of this year and next, along with the terminal interest rate—will also be key drivers of market reactions.... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3178; (R1) 1.3211; More... Immediate focus is now on 1.3265 resistance as GBP/USD's rise from 1.3000 extends today. Decisive break of 1.3265 will resume larger rally 1.3364 projection level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.3145 support will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.3265 with another leg. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 22:45 | NZD | Current Account (NZD) Q2 | -4.83B | -3.90B | -4.36B | -3.83B | | 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Aug | -0.60T | -0.97T | -0.76T | -0.68T | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Jul | -0.10% | 0.40% | 2.10% | | 01:00 | AUD | Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug | -0.10% | -0.04% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Aug | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Aug | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Aug | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Aug | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Aug | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Aug | -0.50% | -0.30% | -0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Aug | -1.20% | -0.90% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Aug | -0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Aug | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.80% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Aug | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 06:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Aug | 1.30% | 1.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug F | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Housing Starts Aug | 1.36M | 1.32M | 1.24M | | 12:30 | USD | Building Permits Aug | 1.475M | 1.41M | 1.40M | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.2M | 0.8M | | 17:30 | CAD | BoC Summary of Deliberations | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.50% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
|
|
|
