Dollar in Free Fall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pressing Key Fibonacci Levels
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-20-18

Dollar in Free Fall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pressing Key Fibonacci Levels

Dollar's selloff accelerates entering into US session today and drags down the Japanese Yen too. Strong employment data may halt the greenback's decline temporary. But it's definitely not enough to trigger a reversal. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in proximity to key fibonacci level at 1.1779 and 1.3316 respectively. These two levels will be closely watched and firm break would trigger even deeper pull back in Dollar in short to medium term.

Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today as held by upside surprise in retail sales. It's a solid report with growth seen in all four retail sectors. Comments from EU officials in Austria also suggest that while the Irish border issue remains unresolved, all sides are working towards a solution, rather than away from it. New Zealand Dollar continues to ride on the stronger than expected Q2 GDP data released earlier today. Euro is trading as the third strongest for the moment. Australian and Canada Dollar lag behind.

There is no clear reason for the free fall in Dollar. But given then all European majors are broadly firm, we'd believe that the trigger lies in Europe. And most likely, it's the strong rally in German 10 year bund yield, which breaks 0.5 level. German 10 year bund yield dived through key support level at around 0.5% earlier this year on Italian political turmoil. It then struggled to reclaim this level as Italy debt worries continue while Turkish Lira crisis emerged. A break of 0.5, and staying above means Eurozone is finally back out of this near term crisis mode.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1643; (P) 1.1680; (R1) 1.1709; More.....

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1300 finally resumes and surges to as high as 1.7766 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside, with focus back 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Rejection from 1.1779 and break of 1.1649 minor support will indicate that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. That will be in line with our original view and turn bias to the downside for 1.1525 support for confirmation. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q2 1.00% 0.80% 0.50%
22:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q2 2.80% 2.50% 2.70% 2.60%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Aug 2.13B 2.41B 2.26B 2.21B
07:30 CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%
07:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range -1.25% -1.25% -1.25%
07:30 CHF SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.30% -0.10% 0.70%
12:30 CAD ADP Payrolls Report Aug 13.6K 11.6K
12:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Sep 22.9 16.3 11.9
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 15) 201K 210K 204K
14:00 USD Leading Index Aug 0.50% 0.60%
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep A -2 -2
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Aug 5.39M 5.34M
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 69B
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