Euro Slumps on Weak PMI as ECB Oct Cut Speculation Heats Up
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-23-24 |
Euro Slumps on Weak PMI as ECB Oct Cut Speculation Heats Up |
Euro took a sharp dive today following disappointing PMI data that fueled fresh speculation about ECB potentially moving up its anticipated rate cut. Markets had been bracing for a December cut, timed with the release of new economic forecasts. However, the mounting risks of stagnation and even recession in the Eurozone have prompted discussions that ECB could pull the trigger as early as October. Despite this, there's still a chance ECB might hold off in November but make a more aggressive 50bps cut in December. The situation remains fluid, and markets are bracing for volatility as incoming data could quickly shift expectations. In the broader currency markets, Australian Dollar remains the strongest performer of the day, though it's showing sign of fatigue against Dollar. New Zealand Dollar follows closely behind while Yen has recovered from earlier losses as risk appetite in Europe turned cautious. Euro, under pressure from weak PMI figures, is now one of the day's worst performers, dragging down the British Pound in its wake. Dollar is the third weakest, as it struggles to find firm direction. Meanwhile, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar remain relatively stable, with no major moves in either direction.... |
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8367; (P) 0.8390; (R1) 0.8403; More... EUR/GBP's decline accelerates to as low as 0.8344 so far and intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.8624 to 0.8399 from 0.8463 at 0.8324. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.8237 next. On the upside, above 0.8385 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8463 resistance holds, in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Aug | -2203M | -155M | -963M | -1016M | | 23:00 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 46.7 | 48.5 | | 23:00 | AUD | Services PMI Sep P | 50.6 | 52.5 | | 07:15 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 44.0 | 44.3 | 43.9 | | 07:15 | EUR | France Services PMI Sep P | 48.3 | 53 | 55 | | 07:30 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 40.3 | 42.4 | 42.4 | | 07:30 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Sep P | 50.6 | 51.1 | 51.2 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 44.8 | 45.7 | 45.8 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Sep P | 50.5 | 52.3 | 52.9 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 51.5 | 52.3 | 52.5 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Sep P | 52.8 | 53.5 | 53.7 | | 12:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index M/M Aug | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Sep P | 48.6 | 47.9 | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Sep P | 55.3 | 55.7 |
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