Risk Appetite Boosted by Unknown Progress in US-China Trade Negotiation, More Talks Ahead
Action Insight Weekly Report 2-16-19
Risk Appetite Boosted by Unknown Progress in US-China Trade Negotiation, More Talks Ahead

Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough to make investors happy. Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones on late rally in stocks. Sterling followed as the third weakest for the week, as Brexit impasse continued. But strong retail sales from UK did give the Pound a mild lift.

On the other hand, commodity currencies made a strong come back. New Zealand Dollar ended as strongest as RBNZ did nothing to endorse market views that next move is a cut. Australian Dollar followed as second with help from the impression that US and China will finally make a trade deal. But the Aussie is set to face a string of tests in RBA minutes, wage price and employment data this week. Canadian Dollar was pulled up to third place by rallying oil prices, with WTI crude oil ended above 56 handle.

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Central Bank Views | China Watch | Oil N' Gold | Special Topics

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3340 last week but failed to break through 1.3375 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidation could be seen. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1.3196 minor support holds. We're favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. Decisive break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high. However, break of 1.3196 will now dampen our view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3068 support instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: More Subdued Data from the Global Economy

The Weekly Bottom Line: Wall of Uncertainty

Stocks Surge on Optimism US-China Trade War Nearing An End

Week Ahead: Productive US-China Trade Talks Support Risk Appetite – for Now

Week Ahead – Flash February PMIs Eyed for Growth Clues; Fed and ECB Minutes to Be Watched Too

Cliff Notes: Sentiment's Many Facets

Weekly Focus – Still Waiting for the Rebound

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