The dominant trends that shaped Q1 in global markets appear to have run their course, with most major assets entering consolidation phase last week. US stocks staged a mild recovery from steep selloff since mid-February, but upside momentum was notably weak. Meanwhile, Dollar, which had been under pressure throughout March, appeared to find a near-term bottom. Resilience of hard economic data in the US somewhat offset persistent concerns over trade disruptions. In Europe, Euro and German DAX also lost steam. Optimism over Germany’s historic EUR 500B infrastructure and defense spending plan helped fuel a strong rally earlier in the month, but now traders are starting to price in political and implementation challenges ahead. In Asia, sentiment toward China has been broadly positive in recent weeks, driven by policy support and hope for a consumer-led recovery. However, the rally in Hong Kong stocks, in particular, appears stretched. Even Gold, after a powerful run to record highs, is struggling to overcome a key medium-term resistance zone. What ties these developments together is a growing sense of caution ahead of the highly anticipated reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled on April 2. Market participants remain wary, especially after US President Donald Trump described the date as America’s “liberation day.” His mixed messaging on potential “flexibility” in applying the tariffs — while simultaneously rejecting carveouts — only adds to the confusion and uncertainty. In this environment, broad-based risk appetite is likely to stay subdued. While tariff concerns may cap further upside in stocks and restrain Dollar’s rebound, traders are unlikely to make aggressive moves until more clarity emerges in early April. For the week, Swiss Franc led the performance chart, followed by Canadian Dollar and the Greenback. Aussie was the weakest, followed by Euro and Yen, while Kiwi and Sterling ended in the middle of the pack..... | 