Markets Enter High-Risk Phase as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Collide

Action Insight Weekly Report 6-7-25

Markets Enter High-Risk Phase as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Collide

Global Financial markets have endured months of turmoil, with overlapping concerns over the US debt downgrade, recession fears, and an intensifying global trade war. The sharp escalation in Middle East conflict last week has only deepened the anxiety, as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, raising the specter of prolonged regional instability.

With the 90-day reciprocal tariff truce also nearing its expiration, the weeks ahead look increasingly fraught. For investors, the challenge is no longer just about navigating volatility, but about reassessing whether the overstretch rebound in US equities since April has run its course.

In the currency markets, the week’s performance map clearly reflected a risk-off tone. Swiss Franc stood out as the top performer, benefiting from its traditional safe haven appeal.

Euro also gained significantly, supported not only by its status as the most liquid and stable Dollar alternative, but also by growing sentiment that ECB is near the end of its easing cycle. While a recalibration cut might still be delivered later in the year, markets increasingly believe that the bulk of rate reductions is behind us.

Canadian Dollar rounded out the top three, supported not by domestic strength but by a sharp rally in oil prices amid fears of supply disruption in the Middle East.

On the flip side, Aussie was the week's worst performer, weighed by its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. Dollar fared little better, finishing second worst despite a bounce late in the week as traders tentatively reconsidered its geopolitical hedge appeal. Kiwi also landed among the bottom performers.

Sterling ended in the middle of the pack but underperformed its European peers, dragged down by weak UK jobs and GDP data that reinforced expectations for BoE rate cut in August (not the upcoming meeting.. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen also finished mid-table, with markets becoming less convinced that BoJ will tighten policy again this year....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7245 resumed last week but lost some momentum after hitting 1.7880. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall development suggests that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a corrective move. Further rise is expected as long as 1.7459 support holds. Above 1.7880 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

The Weekly Bottom Line: Trade Tensions De-escalate Just as Geopolitical Tensions Heat-up

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Few Signs of Tariff Inflation

U.S. Fed to Holds Rates as Canada’s Retail Sales Show Resilience amid Tariffs

Week Ahead – Markets Brace for Central Bank Barrage Amid Heightened Uncertainty

Weekly Focus – Geopolitics Back in the Spotlight

Bank of England Preview – Steady as She Goes

Fed Preview: Still on the Sidelines

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