Dollar Nose Dived after Inflation Data, But Two Hikes Still on the Card?
Action Insight Weekly Report 7-15-23
Dollar Nose Dived after Inflation Data, But Two Hikes Still on the Card?

Following the release of data indicating a steeper than anticipated slowdown in inflation, Dollar saw a marked decline last week, securing its position as the week's most significant loser in the currency markets. Concurrently, surge in stocks and tumble in benchmark treasury yields accompanied Dollar's descent.

At this juncture, it remains too premature to determine whether Fed will conclude its tightening cycle following this month's anticipated rate hike, or if another increase will be on the horizon within the year. Regardless of the outcome, it is expected that Dollar will continue to face pressure in the short term while investors wait for clarity on inflation and rate outlooks.

Elsewhere in the currency markets, Canadian Dollar trailed behind the US counterpart as the second-worst performer for the week. This dip is attributed to speculation that the last week's rate hike might mark the end of BoC's current tightening cycle.

Swiss Franc emerged as the champion of the week, outpacing Yen, which has been consolidating its recent gains. The vigorous rally of Franc in European crosses exerted downward pressure on both Euro and Sterling.

Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar put on an impressive performance, securing its place as the second strongest currency for the week. Australian Dollar, on the other hand, delivered a mixed performance, failing to rally alongside its trans-Tasman neighbor.

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF's decline from 1.0146 resumed last week and broke 0.8756 long term support decisively. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.8564 with subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.8818 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Break of 0.8564 will target 100% projection of 0.9439 to 0.8818 from 0.9146 at 0.8525 next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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