Dollar Dominates Amid Bond Market Turbulence; Sterling and Commodity Currencies Lag
| Action Insight Weekly Report 8-5-23 |
| Dollar Dominates Amid Bond Market Turbulence; Sterling and Commodity Currencies Lag |
Last week ended with Dollar taking center stage as the best performer, driven by significant turbulence in the bond markets that sent long-end yields sharply higher and provided a mid-week uplift. Although the greenback experienced a notable pullback following non-farm payroll report, it still stands poised for potential further gains, should the selloff in stocks and treasuries continue. However, the prospects for an extended Dollar rally are laden with uncertainties. The path towards further gains is tethered to a big "if," with market conditions and sentiments being highly fluid. The real reversal in Dollar might materialize only at a later stage after another dip, depending on how market sentiments develop. Elsewhere in the currency ranks, Euro finished as the second strongest, followed by Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen—a pattern that is not uncommon in a risk-averse environment. On the other side of the spectrum, Sterling was marked as the weakest among the European majors, a status accentuated by the surprising dovish tilt in BoE's rate decision. Commodity currencies found themselves at the bottom of the performance chart, with Australian Dollar leading the descent. Aussie's fall was notably influenced by RBA's decision to keep interest rates on hold, and the communications that suggested it could be already in a phase of prolonged pause. |
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3091 extended higher last week and it's now pressing 1.3386 resistance. Sustained break of 1.3386 will argue that whole correction from 1.3976 has completed with three waves down to 1.3091. Further rally would then be seen to 1.3653 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3386, followed by break of 1.3260 minor support, should resume larger decline through 1.3091 low. | |
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