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| Wednesday, February 28, 2024 |
| We're finally starting to draft. Or at least I am. |
| This week, I've got three "experts" leagues drafts going on: The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, a 15-team, 5x5 Rotisserie league; Tout Wars, another 15-team Roto league, but this time with some funky categories; and LABR, an AL-only Salary Cap/Auction draft. TGBFI is still ongoing, and my LABR draft isn't until this Friday, but my Tout Wars draft finished Tuesday … it went fine. |
| I'm sure you expect me to hype my team up. To say I knocked it out of the park and drafted a perfect team, but the truth is, I didn't. Partially, that's just because drafting a "perfect" almost never happens; everyone else is trying to draft the best roster possible, and they're going to try to mess you up at every point. |
| But part of it, as I wrote in my recap of the draft here, is that the format really complicated things. This was a 12-team league in the past, but it expanded to 15 this season, and that change exacerbated some of the issues that already made this league so tough. It's a 5x5 league, but with on-base percentage replacing batting average, innings pitched replacing wins, and saves-plus-holds replacing saves. |
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| I've got plenty of experience with 12-team Roto and H2H leagues, and I play out plenty of 15-team Roto leagues every year, too. I've played with different scoring formats, including this specific one, but this was the first time I did it in a 15-team league, and I'll tell you this much: It tripped me up a bit. I know what I need to target to be competitive in a typical Roto league – you can see what it took to win each one in both 12- and 15-team leagues here – but trying to balance getting enough S+Holds and enough Innings in a 15-team version of this league really threw me for a loop. |
| I'll be better prepared for next season, but there's nothing like experience to help you draft. We do so many mock drafts during the preseason in order to give you all a sense of what to expect, but they also serve as a testing ground for theories and ideas we want to try in leagues for the upcoming season. If you get the chance, you should definitely try a few practice leagues or drafts before your actual draft to make sure the same thing doesn't happen to you. |
| Of course, you also need to familiarize yourself with the player pool, and there are plenty of ways to do that. In today's newsletter, I'm going to look at the biggest risers and fallers in Average Draft Position over the past couple of weeks as draft season really starts to ramp up, but you should also be checking out the Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep page everyday to keep up with everything from the FBT team. |
| Before we get to the biggest ADP risers and fallers, here's a sampling of what you might have missed from us lately: |
| My Sleepers 2.0 | Frank Stampfl's Breakouts 2.0 | Scott White's Busts 2.0 FBT Pod: Position Previews Recap | Strategies by league type | Snake draft vs. Auction strategiesPosition Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP]Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RPPosition Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP |
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| Biggest ADP risers and fallers |
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| 10 biggest risers |
| Whose stock is on the rise in Fantasy Baseball drafts of late? I took a look at NFBC Average Draft Position data from February and compared it to January's data to find the 10 players whose price has risen the most (inside of the top 300 in ADP, at least, because there's a lot of guys jumping from 500 to 400 who still don't really matter). Here are the 10 biggest risers, along with a quick explanation on why they might be rising, and whether I'm buying them at their new cost. |
| Byron Buxton, OF, Twins -- Feb ADP: 221.88 (+37.9) |
| Why he's rising: After being limited to DH duties last season exclusively due to knee issues, Buxton is playing center field already in the spring and talking about stealing 30 bases. Buxton may not be a good bet to stay healthy, but unlike this time last year (when he was a top-100 pick, mind you), Buxton actually is healthy right now. |
| Buy the rise? Absolutely. What, are you new here? I'm always buying Buxton. |
| Robert Stephenson, RP, Angels -- Feb ADP: 252.8 (+33.76) |
| Why he's rising: Stephenson signed with the Angels in late January, and his price is still rising to reflect that. Stephenson isn't expecting to be the Angels' closer, but given how shaky Carlos Estevez often is in the ninth, nobody really thinks he's got much job security. |
| Buy the rise? Stephenson had a 38.3% strikeout rate and 3.10 ERA last season. If he was named the closer, he'd be a top-150 pick. Buy. |
| Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees -- Feb ADP: 275.52 (+24.23) |
| Why he's rising: He's in the best shape of his life, I guess? I don't really know, to be honest. Stanton is currently healthy, but unlike Buxton, that wasn't really a question entering spring. |
| Buy the rise? Stanton's current price is fine, but I just don't get why there's forward momentum here. He's a perfectly reasonable late-round dice roll. |
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| Yu Darvish, SP, Padres -- Feb ADP: 190.8 (+21.41) |
| Why he's rising: This is another one where the player's price seems to be rising because he got to spring and reminded us that he's currently healthy. I don't think we've really learned much to justify his price rising, but for what it's worth, Darvish did look strong in his spring debut Wednesday, striking out three in two innings. He's done nothing to lower his value. |
| Buy the rise? Darvish has risen to where I had him ranked coming into the spring, so I'm still buying. But a healthy, effective spring won't necessarily answer all of the questions about the 37-year-old after his season ended with elbow issues. |
| Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 179.66 (+20.24) |
| Why he's rising: He's got a chance at an Opening Day roster spot. I'm not sure he's better than a coin flip at this point to break camp, but while Holliday played just 54 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he hit .313 with a reasonable 20% strikeout rate as a 19-year-old, so I'm not sure he has much left to prove. And the Orioles did pretty much leave second base wide open for him. They're practically begging him to take the job. |
| Buy the rise? Holliday might be a top-100 pick if and when he's announced as a major-leaguer. This might be a discount. |
| Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox -- Feb ADP: 150.53 (+19.78) |
| Why he's rising: Duran looks like the leading candidate to be the Red Sox's leadoff hitter, and here's what his 150-game pace looked like in 36 games as a leadoff hitter last season: 104 runs, 21 homers, 71 RBI, and 50 steals. I don't think he'll actually be as good as Corbin Carroll, but there's plenty of upside here. |
| Buy the rise? I took Duran with the 123rd overall pick in my Tout Wars draft, so yeah, I'm cool with it. |
| Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs -- Feb ADP: 190.12 (+18.69) |
| Why he's rising: We learned that Imanaga was signing with the Cubs on Jan. 11, so it could be that his apparent rise is mostly about his price settling in. |
| Buy the rise? As I said last week, I love making the bet on Imanaga inside the top 200, even if there are some red flags in his profile. There's Freddy Peralta-esque upside here. |
| Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians -- Feb ADP: 155.42 (+18.38) |
| Why he's rising: He went to Jared – err, DriveLine. Bieber spent the offseason working out with the data-driven baseball performance lab, and saw a significant jump in velocity in their training sessions. |
| Buy the rise? I'm out at this price, honestly. I like Bieber more after learning about this, but I need to see it in action in games. And, even if he's throwing 93-94 this spring, it won't really answer the significant questions about his ability to hold up over a full season after going on the IL with a forearm strain last season (not to mention the shoulder strain he suffered in 2021). |
| Nestor Cortes, SP, Yankees -- Feb ADP: 247.51 (+18.38) |
| Why he's rising: Cortes has been all systems go in Spring Training and his velocity was up 0.6 mph on his fastball in his spring debut. He got hit around a bit, but the increased velocity is the more important thing, I think. |
| Buy the rise? I've had Cortes ranked about 20 spots higher than his February ADP all along, so yes, I'm definitely buying. |
| Jackson Chourio, OF Brewers -- Feb ADP: 122.81 (+18.33) |
| Why he's rising: Chourio signed his record-breaking pre-debut contract back in December, so I don't actually know why he's rising. We've been expecting him to be the Brewers' Opening Day center fielder since he put pen to paper. |
| Buy the rise? Chourio has played two spring games with three singles, so I'm not sure there's much justification for his rise. But I still have him ranked ahead of this ADP, so he's a fine pick here. |
| 10 biggest fallers |
| Just like with the biggest ADP risers, we're looking at the biggest fallers in ADP from January to February in NFBC leagues. In some of these instances, the reasons they're falling make a lot of sense: Spring training injuries will rightly cause your value to tumble. But some of these guys are falling for no apparent reason. I look into the 10 biggest drops since the start of January to see if you should be buying the dip or let them keep falling. |
| Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 280.96 (-186.83) |
| Why he's falling: Bradish was shut down from throwing at the start of Spring Training due to a UCL sprain and will almost certainly open the season on the IL at this point. Bradish has been throwing on flat ground in recent days, and the team has expressed positivity about his progress, but we're a long way from being out of the woods here. |
| Buy the dip? I dropped Bradish quite a bit in my rankings as a result of the injury, but I still had him higher than 280, so I'm fine taking the discount. Even if there's a realistic chance he gives you basically nothing this season. One thing to keep in mind about the price: NFBC leagues do not have IL spots, so it's harder to justify drafting a guy who is already hurt. |
| Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros -- Feb ADP: 327.64 (-142.67) |
| Why he's falling: Josh Hader signed with the Astros in late January. I assume this is just Pressly's price settling. |
| Buy the dip? Pressly can still be useful as a non-closer, but even in that Tout Wars Saves-plus-Holds draft, he was outside of the top 250. He can be pretty much ignored in most 12-team leagues where holds don't count. |
| John Means, SP, Orioles -- Feb ADP: 354.16 (-75.89) |
| Why he's falling: Along with Bradish's injury, we learned that Means was likely to begin the season on the IL as well, though it's not clear he's actually hurt right now. It sounds like this might be more of a Shane Baz/Walker Buehler situation, where the team is having his start delayed so they can manage his innings after he threw just 45 last season. |
| Buy the dip? I'm actually pretty excited to see what a healthy Means can do, because we haven't seen him pitch in the much more generous dimensions at Camden Yards – they pushed the fences back in 2022, and he's made just six starts since. He's a fine final-round dart throw, especially if you have an IL spot to play with. |
| Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers -- Feb ADP: 195.13 (-72.37) |
| Why he's falling: The Dodgers actually mentioned that Buehler would likely start the season on the IL back in December, but somehow in an era of daily, 24-hour meltdowns over every 0.5-mph drop in velocity, it went almost entirely unnoticed until the end of January. But yeah, Buehler is likely to get a delayed start to the season after appearing in one game in his return from Tommy John surgery last season. |
| Buy the dip? Buehler is "still working through some things in his delivery," according to Dave Roberts, but we don't have any reason to think he's suffered a setback here. I'm not overly optimistic about his chances, but a pick around 200th overall seems like an easy call. |
| Matt Brash, SP, Mariners -- Feb ADP: 342.84 (-58.55) |
| Why he's falling: Brash was shut down from throwing recently, but the team hasn't given any details on what caused it. Brash said, "It just didn't feel great," but he also downplayed it by saying he's been through similar situations in the past. Brash was in the mix to set up for Andres Munoz before the injury, but now it looks like he might be delayed for Opening Day. |
| Buy the dip? Armed with one of the wickedest sliders in the game, Brash struck out 107 batters in a league-high 78 appearances last season. He could be a high-end closer if he gets the opportunity, but I think he's probably not worth drafting in nearly all 12-team leagues right now. |
| Jonathan India, 2B, Reds -- Feb ADP: 276.89 (-46.91) |
| Why he's falling: India was supposed to work out in the outfield this offseason in a bid to increase his playing time, but he apparently wasn't able to do much at all as he continues to deal with lingering plantar fasciitis issues. |
| Buy the dip? India's stuck in a crowded Reds lineup, and he's still dealing with an injury that plagued him last season. These are ominous portents for a guy, and while he has 20-20 potential if healthy and playing everyday, it just doesn't seem like India is going to get that opportunity at this point. He's a bench piece for me. |
| Zach Neto, SS, Angels -- Feb ADP: 335.58 (-46.9) |
| Why he's falling: There hasn't been a ton to cause Neto's dip here, but there was one news item last week about Neto asking to hit ninth that could explain it. It's a weird fit for a player who has shown a knack for getting on base by hook or crook – including 26 HBP in just 132 career games since being drafted – but if he's truly slated to hit ninth, that would definitely mute any potential sleeper appeal. |
| Buy the dip? Neto has some skills – he could probably hit 15-20 homers and steal 15 bases in a full season, and I think he's probably better than the .225 average from last season. However, the Angels had 142 fewer plate appearances from their No. 1 spot to their No. 9 spot last year, and hitting ninth in what should be a bad lineup isn't appealing at all. I get it. |
| Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays -- Feb ADP: 303.75 (-40.31) |
| Why he's falling: Nothing? Genuinely, I can't find anything that would have caused Jansen's price to fall. |
| Buy the dip? His price is cheap enough that it's fine to draft him here, because Jansen is a viable No. 2 catcher when healthy – he has 32 homers over the past two seasons in just 158 games, even if he'll split with Alejandro Kirk still. |
| Shane Baz, SP, Rays -- Feb ADP: 237.6 (-39.96) |
| Why he's falling: Like Buehler and Means, Baz is going to get a delayed start to the season. He told reporters recently he had to accept the "lesser of two evils," choosing to have his season delayed rather than trying to manage his innings mid-season. Baz didn't pitch last season coming off Tommy John surgery and has never thrown more than 92 in a season. |
| Buy the dip? Baz threw those 92 innings back in 2021, so I'd be shocked if he threw much more than that this season. Which means there's a decent chance we might not see him until July. He'd have to fall this far before I took him. |
| J.P. Crawford, SS, Mariners -- Feb ADP: 313.48 (-36.85) |
| Why he's falling: As with Jansen, I can't find any reasonable explanation for why Crawford's price is falling. He's healthy and talking about making sure he proves last season's breakout wasn't a fluke. |
| Buy the dip? Crawford went to Jared DriveLine last offseason and it resulted in a career-high 19 homers, an AL-best 94 walks, and 94 runs in 145 games. He's not a particularly exciting option in a Roto league, but he's probably a fine starter – and a bit more than that in H2H points. As a CI, you can do worse if you don't need speed. |
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