After Assad: The Future of Syria and the Middle East

After Assad: The Future of Syria and the Middle East

By Ahnaf Kalam ● Dec 12, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 5.5 mins...1466 words

The recent overthrow of Syria’s Assad regime by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has set the entire Middle East on edge. As power vacuums form and alliances shift, pressing questions emerge: Can minority groups survive under HTS control? Will Turkey dominate where Assad once held sway? How will global players like Russia, Iran, and the U.S. respond, and what does this mean for Israel’s security? In this edition, our experts provide incisive analysis to help you understand these complex and rapidly unfolding developments.

ICYMI – “Syria after the Assads: What Happened and What Follows?” with Jonathan Spyer

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization, has taken Damascus, completing its stunning ten-day offensive and overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad regime. This historic moment has many and profound implications. Which key factors made possible the HTS success? What’s next for Syria? How will this major shift affect Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia, and the United States?

Jonathan Spyer is MEF’s director of research. He has traveled extensively in Syria and reported from all sides of that country’s conflicts. He has a BSc from the London School of Economics, an M.A. from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and a Ph.D. from the University of London.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

The Perfect Storm that Allowed an Islamist Victory in Syria: Daniel Pipes on NTD News

A perfect storm enabled Islamist factions in Syria end the 50-plus years of Assad family rule in Syria. MEF president Daniel Pipes discusses the key factors that spelled Assad's doom and assesses Turkey's future role, the dangers of Islamist control of Syria, Iran's future, and more.

Why it matters: This shift signals a potential end to the axis of resistance against Israel, altering regional alliances and power structures.

The big picture:

Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran's weakened state have allowed Turkish-backed HTS to seize the opportunity.

This power vacuum has enabled rapid territorial gains by rebel forces, reshaping Syria's political landscape.

What's next:

Turkey's influence in Syria is set to grow, raising concerns about the establishment of an extremist government.

Today, Israel’s main challenges come from Iran, Turkey, global Islamists, and the international left—not the Arab states.

To watch the full segment, click here.

Syria - Who are the Winners and Losers?: Jim Hanson on Fox News

MEF chief editor Jim Hanson discusses the recent upheaval in Syria and how it has reshaped the regional power dynamics, highlighting distinct winners and losers.

Why it matters: Understanding these shifts is crucial as they influence geopolitical strategies and alliances, affecting regional stability and the future of minority groups.

Winners:

HTS Jihadists: Backed by Turkey, they have gained ground under a guise of moderation.

Turkey & Erdoğan: Positioned to extend influence through strategic support of HTS.

Israel: Successfully dismantling threats, reinforcing border security.

Losers:

Iran: Facing setbacks amidst diminished influence.

Russia: Retains some strategic ports but suffers regional losses.

Minorities: Christians and Kurds are increasingly vulnerable to jihadist advances.

To watch the full segment, click here.

What’s Next for Syria?: Jim Hanson on Fox News

The fall of the Assad regime has left Syria in a precarious state, with new power dynamics emerging in the region.

Why it matters: The power vacuum in Syria has led to increased instability and influence from external powers, affecting regional security and minority groups.

Regional power plays:

Turkey's ambitions: Backing Islamist factions, Turkey is poised to assert itself as a regional power.

Israel's stance: Proactively securing borders, Israel remains vigilant against potential threats.

Geopolitical implications:

Russia and Iran: Both nations face setbacks, losing strategic footholds in Syria.

Potential for conflict: As major powers vie for control, the outcome remains uncertain, with significant risks for all involved.

To watch the full segment, click here.

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Will Assad’s Fall Lead to the Islamic State’s Rebound?

The fall of Assad’s regime raises concerns about a potential resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in the region.

Why it matters: The power shift in Syria could destabilize efforts to maintain regional peace and instead empower extremist factions, threatening minorities and Western allies.

Potential threat:

Jawlani's rise: Despite promises of moderation, his leadership may mask intentions to re-establish a caliphate.

Kurdish dilemma: Kurdish forces currently hold ISIS detainees, but their control is threatened by Turkish ambitions.

Geopolitical shifts:

Turkey's role: Backed by Erdoğan, Turkish forces could facilitate the release of ISIS fighters, altering the balance of power.

Western concerns: If ISIS regains strength, regional allies like the U.S. and Israel could face renewed threats.

To read the full article, click here.

The Syrian Side of the Golan After Assad’s Downfall: Interview

Now that the Assad regime is gone and there is no central authority asserting its control across Syrian territory, minimizing anarchy is more relevant for Israel than ever.

Why it matters: The absence of a central authority in Syria poses risks of chaos and weapon proliferation, affecting regional stability and security.

Israel's actions:

Buffer-zone establishment: Aims to prevent military assets from falling into rogue hands and mitigate threats from criminal elements.

Military inspections: Israeli forces are inspecting homes to ensure no weapons remain, focusing on maintaining order and security.

Local dynamics:

Community-led security: Local committees have taken charge of maintaining order amid the regime's collapse.

International coordination: Contact with the UN ensures broader oversight and support for stabilization efforts.

To read the full interview, click here.

‘Free Syria and Assad’s Syria': Islamic State Editorial on Insurgent Offensive

The Islamic State (IS) editorial in Al-Naba’ highlights the insurgent offensive in northwest Syria, critiquing factions like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and exposing IS's distinct approach.

Why it matters: Understanding IS's perspective on regional conflicts sheds light on the broader religious, political, and ideological battles shaping Syria's future.

Editorial insights:

Proxy conflict: The offensive is seen as a proxy war between Turkey and Iran, with Turkey aiming to annex northern Syria as a buffer zone.

Ideological divide: Unlike factions like HTS seeking a civil state, IS rejects the international system, focusing on establishing a global caliphate.

Geopolitical implications:

Turkish influence: Turkey’s ambitions in Syria could reshape the regional balance, impacting Kurdish and insurgent dynamics.

IS's distinct path: IS positions itself against international norms, attracting hostility yet maintaining its ideological stance.

To read the full article, click here.

Will Syria Become the Dumping Ground for Hamas?

As Syria undergoes political upheaval, speculation arises about it becoming a new stronghold for Hamas, facilitated by Turkey's strategic maneuvers.

Why it matters: The potential relocation of Hamas to Syria could escalate tensions, posing new challenges for Israel and neighboring countries.

Turkey's influence:

Proxy dynamics: Erdoğan’s support for Hamas and HTS suggests a strategic realignment, with Syria possibly serving as a new operational base.

Diplomatic deniability: By shifting Hamas to Syria, Turkey avoids direct confrontation with Israel while maintaining leverage over regional dynamics.

Regional consequences:

Threat to Jordan: A strengthened Hamas presence in Syria may destabilize Jordan, increasing regional instability.

Continued terror sponsorship: Syria’s role as a terror sponsor transitions from Iranian to Turkish influence, complicating efforts to curb extremism.

To read the full article, click here.

Sinwar’s ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ Washed Iran’s Axis Away, but That Doesn’t Spell Plain Sailing for Israel

As Iran's influence wanes following Assad's downfall, Turkey emerges as a key player in the evolving Syrian landscape.

Why it matters: Turkey's ascendance reshapes geopolitical dynamics, presenting new challenges and opportunities for regional stability.

Strategic maneuvers:

Proxy influence: Turkey backs Syrian rebels, potentially using this leverage to counter Kurdish autonomy and relocate Syrian refugees.

Diplomatic positioning: Turkey’s nuanced relationships with proxy groups allow it to maneuver with plausible deniability, complicating Israel's response strategies.

Future implications:

Regional conflict: Expect increased proxy tensions between Turkey and Iran in Syria.

Potential collaboration: Despite animosities, strategic communication between Turkey and Israel could mitigate misunderstandings and foster stability.

To read the full article, click here.

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