After Months of Relative Calm, Rates are Starting to Look Panicked Again

In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since the big shift in November, we've only seen one similar example and it was more of a technicality (a sharp drop in rates followed by a correction in early Feb), until today. Rates were already on the run toward higher levels at a fairly abrupt pace last week. The culprit was economic data, starting with the strong jobs report on April 5th and the far more troubling inflation data last Wednesday. Today's Retail Sales report was the icing on this unpleasant data cake. To be clear, when it comes to Retail Sales, the data is actually very pleasant for the economy. Unfortunately, what's good for economic growth is often bad for rates and that's doubly true at the moment when the market is waiting for more concrete evidence that the Fed's tight monetary policy is restricting growth. In other, simpler words, this data does not line up with the notion of Fed rate cuts in the near term. It also had an immediate negative impact on the rest of the bond market, including the bonds that most directly dictate mortgage rates. The average lender is now back into the mid 7s for a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario.

April 15, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch After Months of Relative Calm, Rates are Starting to Look Panicked Again In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since the big shift in November, we've only seen one similar example and it was more of a technicality... (read more) MBS Commentary Data-Driven Repricing Continues Data-Driven Repricing Continues There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market professional: the intraday change in rates among lenders when market move enough and the broader bo... (read more) Rob Chrisman Valuation, Online App., Data Intelligence, UW Guideline Integration Tools; STRATMOR ICE Integration No one is getting any younger, not even Clint Eastwood. Time marches on, as does, apparently, the cost of mailing a letter. The post office wants to jack the price of a stamp to 73 cents from 68 cents which took effect in January. But everything is p... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.44% +0.14% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.44% +0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.85% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.86% +0.16 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% +0.09 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.38% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.88% +0.16 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.85% +0.10% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/11 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.01% +0.10 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 6.46% +0.11 0.60 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.07 0.56 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.34 -0.42 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.34 -0.42 UMBS 6.5 101.09 -0.29 GNMA 6.0 100.18 -0.16 GNMA 6.5 101.15 -0.16 Pricing as of: 4/15 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6096 +0.0814 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.912 +0.008 5 YR Treasury 4.623 +0.060 7 YR Treasury 4.625 +0.073 10 YR Treasury 4.610 +0.081 30 YR Treasury 4.726 +0.097 Pricing as of: 4/15 5:31PM EST Latest Video Expect three rate cuts this year: Neuberger Berman's Kroft JPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Still expect the Fed to carry out its first rate... Mohamed El-Erian: Hoping the Fed delivers two rate cuts starting July Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Two rate cuts are still plausible this year Around the Web CNBC U.S. wage growth is cooling, but some jobs are still seeing relatively big annual raises CNBC Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Calculated Risk Blog Housing April 15th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.6% Week-over-week, Up 29.6% Year-over-year Eye on Housing Builder Sentiment Unchanged in April CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors consider economic outlook Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in March Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 Marketwatch Feds Schmid calls for patience before making any change in interest rates Marketwatch Consumer sentiment falls in April on worries about sticky inflation Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Performing Well in February 2024 Reuters German inflation eases to lowest in almost three years

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