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| Monday, June 17, 2024 |
| Yo! My name is Jacob Gibbs, I am the new voice in your head whenever you choose to read an email from the FFT newsletter. You may not know me yet, so maybe it will help you nail down my voice to know that FFT listeners liken my cadence to that of a 13-year-old girl from the 'Bob's Burgers' universe named Tina Belcher. |
| I've watched every episode of Bob's Burgers, and I have to say, I get it. Like Tina, I tend to be a bit obsessive and I sometimes struggle to send accurate social cues, especially upon first impression. How am I doing so far? Was the 'yo!' too strong of an opening greeting? Probably. Now that you know to read it in Tina's voice, it should read more as a "yooo." I don't know if that helps at all. |
| Fortunately for you, you'll almost certainly never meet me in real life and be subject to my awkwardness. You also only have to hear my voice if you choose to let it narrate these newsletters for you or if you watch/listen to the FFT podcast series that I am a proud member of. Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier and I created it together. It's called 'Beyond the Boxscore,' and I think it's great! |
| As an FFT newsletter subscriber, you find yourself in the sweet spot where you should only benefit from the obsessive side of my Tina-like personality. Another characteristic I share with Tina is that I have the utmost confidence that I am a baller. I can help you win Fantasy football championships. I may not be the best at avoiding filling any empty space with the word "um" as I stumble through the point I'm trying to make during live podcasts, but I do believe that I'm one of the best at predicting what might happen in this crazy chaotic game that we all love. |
| If you'll allow me, I'd like to familiarize you with my game and then present my vision for this newsletter moving forward. |
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| What do I offer to readers of the FFT Newsletter? |
| As I considered whether or not this newsletter role would be a good fit, I meditated on three questions, one of which was, "What do I offer to the newsletter readers?" |
| I found three compelling answers to that question: |
| Unique perspective on team-level projectionsAdvanced micro-level player analysisA dynamic learning space |
| I'd like to explore each answer with you as we look forward to the future of this newsletter. |
| Unique perspective on team-level projections |
| My background was as a Daily Fantasy Sports grinder, which required meticulous attention to detail in team-level analysis. Since 2013, I have been forming and refining my process – considering a myriad of interconnected data points that help me to identify inefficiencies in public markets and what I believe to be the most likely outcome. |
| This process manifests in all sorts of different ways. The most recent example comes in the form of the 2023 Indianapolis Colts offense. I predicted IND to increase the pace of play and utilize heavy RPO usage, which would concentrate target share on Michael Pittman who was an afterthought for much of the Fantasy community. Pittman's target per route run rate spiked from 22% in 2022 to 27.7% in 2023, and he finished as the WR13 in Fantasy (providing massive value to drafters, as his cost was just WR33 on average). |
| I believe that considering Fantasy football ranges of outcomes from the "top-down" view – beginning by forming a corollary between historical data trends and Vegas-implied expectations for each team, adjusting for known offensive play-calling tendencies, and then dispersing team-level volume among offensive players – opens the door to finding exploitable edges relative to a consensus created by an oversaturated group-think focusing on player-specific analysis. |
| This summer, I'm excited to facilitate a detailed discussion space for newsletter readers to examine my projection process on a team-by-team basis. Starting on July 1, I'll deliver a daily (Monday-Friday) email containing a deep dive on one NFL offense's 2024 outlook. Over the course of the summer, we'll cover every team in the NFL. |
| Advanced micro-level player analysis |
| Player-specific analysis is important, I don't mean to discredit it. This has proven to be my largest value add to the NFL space. The NFL is chaotic and dynamic, I don't claim that a spreadsheet can capture all that goes into predicting NFL outcomes. A player's talent absolutely can allow them to transcend even what my projections might establish as a "top" to their range of perceivable outcomes. Do not confuse me with the spreadsheet sickos – I use projections, but I am not married to them – of course, watching and analyzing the players themselves is important. |
| Also, player analysis is fun! Familiarizing ourselves with the strengths and weaknesses of these players allows us to become invested in their outcomes in a more personal way than simply following projections to the most optimal bets. |
| I love player analysis. I have no background in scouting or player evaluation, but I do watch as much film as I can. I also study collegiate and pro advanced data to familiarize myself with each player's skill set. When that knowledge (and bias) is balanced by the application of team-level projections, I've proven capable of identifying outliers before they break out. |
| In 2016, I identified David Johnson as prime to erupt in a full-time role in Bruce Arians' offense before he posted 2,000+ scrimmage yards and 20+ touchdowns. I advocated for taking him with the first pick in Fantasy that year, an unpopular opinion at the time. |
| In 2017, I highlighted Kareem Hunt as capable of handling an every-down role following Spencer Ware's injury. Hunt was my highest-exposure player in 2017 Fantasy drafts and finished as Fantasy's RB4 as a rookie. |
| In 2018, I bet on Patrick Mahomes to win MVP in June. I ranked him higher than anyone among 200+ experts in the FantasyPros accuracy contest. |
| In 2019, I extrapolated Chris Godwin's early-career per-route data over a projected increase in route participation and labeled him the top breakout pick in Fantasy. He finished as the WR2 behind only a record-breaking Michael Thomas. |
| In 2020, while everyone chased the MT season, I ranked Davante Adams as my WR1 and labeled him as the best possible pick you could make at the Round 1-2 turn. People still weren't familiar with per-route data at this time, but I raved about the 2019 per-route breakout that Adams displayed (he only played 12 games -- evaluating players whose season-long data was affected by injury is the primary use-case for per-route data. I'll write about this more in future newsletter posts) to anyone who would listen. Adams finished 2020 as the Fantasy WR1. Over the past five seasons, only Cooper Kupp's 2021 season has yielded a higher per-game Fantasy point average (25.8) than what Adams gave Fantasy managers (25.6) in 2020. |
| In 2021, Jalen Hurts was my 'must-draft' late-round QB before he burst onto the scene as QB5 in points per game. Admittedly, the 2021 and 2022 hits aren't quite as sexy as the rest. I had some personal stuff going on, okay? Just wait til you get to the 2023 hit! |
| In 2022, my projections showed massive breakout potential for Christian Kirk in his first year with the Jags. Everyone trolled the Jags for paying him, his Fantasy ADP was just WR40, but my projections had him as a top-20 WR. I split the difference and ranked him as WR29. He finished as the WR12. |
| In 2023, I labeled Puka Nacua a must-draft and was putting Dynasty and Best Ball drafters on him in May. Nico Collins was my top breakout candidate at any position, and I became obsessed with Tank Dell after his preseason tape matched what I found in his collegiate data . At RB, I projected both Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP of RB17, my RB12) and David Montgomery (ADP of RB31, my RB20) for huge seasons, and Breece Hall, James Cook, and Rachaad White were three of my top targets at the RB position. So was Dameon Pierce. We'll get to him in a second. |
| If you've been playing Fantasy football, many of these "big hit" outcomes may seem obvious in retrospect. I would agree! I'm not interested in dressing up what I do as something profound or mysterious, what's important is the simple act of doing it. I do the work, I get in the weeds and dig. |
| I also am not interested in using these examples of yearly big "hits" to brush over the fact that I miss. I'm going to miss each year, sometimes in a big way. Last year, I glossed over the fact that Dameon Pierce was a poor schematic fit with a new Houston Texans regime and the style of rushing that Bobby Slowik might implement. I simply was unaware of Pierce's pronounced splits as a highly effective man/gap concept runner and a below-average rusher behind zone-blocking. Since then, Scott Barrett has familiarized me with the advanced rushing data available on FantasyPoints.com, which was unavailable to me prior to 2023. I would have liked to avoid a costly mistake in investing in Pierce in 2023, but I also view it as a learning opportunity and can now share that learning with those who have an interest in following my work. |
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| Through this continued effort to learn and collaborate with other lifelong NFL learners, I have cultivated a unique ability to help readers better understand the ranges of outcomes for NFL players, specifics of roles NFL teams ask players to fill, and ways in which offensive players might win or lose against NFL defense – essentially, I believe that I am exceptional at helping people learn and grow with me as NFL observers. That skill feels like an ideal fit for delivering the type of content that a person who would volunteer to receive regular emails in their inbox might be looking for. |
| Newsletter readers intentionally choose to be there. Newsletter readers choose to exist in this unique space as a willing learner – there's an inherent commitment and an implied desire for deeper understanding. I absolutely love it. Being a longtime Fantasy football newsletter subscriber myself, I feel right at home in delivering these emails to your inbox! It is an honor to be here. I am so excited as I consider the potential for this as a shared space for everyone involved (myself included!) to level up together as Fantasy football nerds. |
| A Dynamic Learning Space |
| Dynamism, in this instance, relates to my desire to let the FFT newsletter's creative process sometimes be dictated by the curiosity of everyone involved rather than just my own. I want this to be an interactive experience for anyone who wants to engage. |
| I'm in the process of creating an inbox for FFT newsletter readers to reply to. If anything covered in this space is unclear, I want you to have the ability to seek clarity. If any ideas that we explore in this space spark curiosity about anything else at all, I want you to feel free to follow that curiosity. I can't promise that I'll have the availability to answer every single question amid a summer plan involving daily detailed team-by-team breakdowns, but I do intend to regularly check that inbox and respond to any questions that I find. |
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| Lastly, I want to introduce you to a Beyond the Boxscore project that I am creating: 'In The Lab,' a Fantasy Football Today Newsletter dynamic learning space. One Friday each month during the offseason and every Friday during the season, I'm going to explore topics decided upon by the FFT Newsletter audience. If you follow this link, you'll be able to fill out a quick Google Form and inform me of what you are curious about learning more about! I'm excited to get in the lab and learn more with you! |
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| This is the end of my introduction. I was told to include at least one photo in every newsletter post, so here's Patrick Mahomes. I hope it won't ruin my first impression to let you know that I am in fact born and raised as a Kansas City Chiefs fan. I know that's a bad look right now. |
| Say what you will about Kansas City's organization, but it's hard to not like Mahomes. He seems like a genuinely kind person and is one of the most entertaining athletes I've ever witnessed. I am beyond excited that we have the opportunity to watch him on a football field in roughly two months. |
| I am also beyond excited for the opportunity to be sharing this space with you going forward. Thank you. This is going to be a lot of fun. You can expect a newsletter in your inbox at noon ET on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays for the remainder of June before we get into daily team-by-team breakdowns in July, and before you know it, football will be back on TV! |
| With my time as the newsletter's author beginning deep into the offseason, we won't be able to cover the number of topics that I would like to explore together. Still, we've got a small window in June before digging into the team-by-team projections to discuss some fun stuff. Displayed below are the topics that I plan on bringing to you over the next two weeks. |
| Proposed FFT Newsletter topics: |
June 18 -- Players I have not been drafting any of in 2024
June 19 -- The importance of targets and receptions at the RB position
June 21 -- Using rushing scheme data in Fantasy football (Plus our first 'In The Lab' installment!)
June 24 -- Fun with per-route data
June 26 -- On/Off Splits
June 28 -- The importance of coverage type data |
| Thank you for subscribing! Thank you for reading! Thank you for choosing to give me some of your invaluable time! I hope that I can portray at least a portion of the joy that it brings me to be here sharing this space in time with you. I started playing Fantasy football because I loved football, I loved creating and playing games even more, and even more than that I loved the community and friends that I found at the intersection of real-life football and made-up games. It brought me so much joy. I am still here geeked out and just as in love as the day we met, so many years later, because of the exploring and learning that comes as we navigate our way through this ever-evolving Fantasy football space. |
| Today, Fantasy football has become super competitive. It can be pretty intense out here. I'm happy to help you win your high-stakes league, win big money in daily fantasy contests, hit your bets -- whatever way in which you choose to enjoy Fantasy football, as long as you feel good about it and it is done responsibly, I am here to help. But above anything else, my goal with this newsletter is to have fun while learning and growing. Whether you're a seasoned vet or not, let's approach this with curiosity. Maybe this isn't so serious to you, maybe aren't playing for money, maybe your pride isn't staked into your Fantasy football results. Maybe you've never even heard of most of the phrases that have become a second language for me. I really have no idea what point you are at on your respective journey through the Fantasy football space, and the only way for me to meet you at that point is if you reach out! I never want you to feel lost. Please never feel afraid to ask questions. I'll have an FFT newsletter inbox ready for questions as soon as possible! We are in this together, FFT newsletter family. I appreciate you being here. |
| I am immensely privileged to be here doing this work. I want to use that privilege to extend help to anyone who wants it. |
| A few years ago, I made the decision to stop creating work for others and instead allow myself the spaciousness to explore every nook and cranny of what interests me and let that be my work. The spirit of my Fantasy football experience, which has become my work, has always been and must remain joy and curiosity. I've found that only when I operate out of that space do I create resonant work, and the more that I've accepted and leaned into a love for the details, the more people my work has reached. That mindset has brought me here! It is with deep gratitude that I invite you into this explorative space where we will grow and evolve together. Let's have some fun this football season and learn something new. I bet we win some Fantasy football championships along the way! |
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| | | | | Canadian Football League | | SailGP | More football from up north comes down to CBS Sports Network this weekend. Watch the Edmonton Elks vs. Toronto Argonauts on Saturday at 7 PM ET, with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats taking on the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Sunday at 7 PM ET.
Watch Live
| | SailGP glides along the shores of New York City this Saturday and Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. You can catch the race on Sunday at 12:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
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