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| By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from ProsperityPub and its partners (privacy policy) The performances displayed here are historical examples based on Newton's signals for the time period shown. They are not indicative of future results, and you may lose money. Based on our backtesting, Newton's signals posted a positive outcome 80% of the time. |
| Why U.S. Stocks Still Outperform—Even as Global Markets Rally |
| Hi Traders, International stocks have recently outperformed U.S. equities, but the question remains—will it last? While some global markets, particularly in China and Europe, have shown strong gains, U.S. stocks still hold the advantage when looking at corporate earnings trends. Despite concerns over tariffs under President Donald Trump, U.S. corporate earnings continue to outpace those of international markets. Forward earnings projections for U.S. stocks suggest that they remain the better long-term investment. The numbers indicate that while certain international markets may enjoy short-term gains, overweighting U.S. equities in a global portfolio remains a sound strategy. Investors are keeping a close eye on Trump’s tariff policies, particularly after recent actions on aluminum and steel. While markets initially reacted with caution, the real test will come if reciprocal tariffs are imposed in April. For now, trade uncertainty has weighed more on North America and emerging markets than on China and Europe, but that could shift if the U.S. retaliates with additional measures. Even as international markets have surged, U.S. stocks continue to notch record highs. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, while the iShares MSCI ACW ex U.S. ETF—which tracks global stocks outside the U.S.—has climbed 8% year to date, outpacing the S&P 500’s 4.2% gain. Germany and China Lead International Gains Germany’s stock market has been a standout performer in Europe. The iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) hit an all-time high, its first since 2007, after climbing 1.3% on Tuesday. The fund is now up 16% in 2025. In emerging markets, China has also seen a strong rally. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) has gained 15.2% year to date, driven in part by investor enthusiasm over the country’s progress in disruptive technology. U.S. Stocks: Still the Safer Long-Term Play Despite these global gains, the bull market for U.S. stocks remains intact. Concerns about high valuations persist, but history suggests they are not a reliable reason to exit the market. Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to end the year between 6,200 and 6,300, reinforcing confidence in U.S. equities. While international stocks have been on a strong run, U.S. equities continue to offer a more stable and earnings-driven investment case. Sectors such as financials, industrials, and healthcare remain key areas of focus for investors looking to capitalise on steady growth. For those willing to take on higher risks, China’s market is attracting attention, but it remains a volatile bet. While recent innovations have strengthened its appeal, only those with a high risk tolerance should consider exposure to Chinese equities. - The Team at Altos Trading In the next article, Investors are searching for clues on how the Federal Reserve views Trump’s tariff policies and inflation, and Wednesday’s release of the central bank’s January meeting minutes could offer some insight. |
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| The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 2/25/20 through 11/1/24, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 75.2%. The average weighted rate of return on options trades was 6.23% over a 12-day average hold time. By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners (privacy policy) |
What Does the Fed Really Think About Trump Tariffs and Inflation? We’re About to Find Out |
| The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation has hit a roadblock, and the next phase of its strategy is growing even more complex. Investors are now looking for clues on how Fed officials view President Trump’s tariffs and broader economic policies—and they may get some answers when the minutes from the central bank’s January meeting are released on Wednesday. Senior Fed leaders have made it clear: they are watching White House policies closely, but their decisions on inflation and interest rates are based on actual economic conditions—not on speculation about what Trump might do next. Uncertainty remains a major challenge, as Trump has frequently shifted positions on tariffs, taxes, and spending, leaving Fed policymakers with little clarity on what’s ahead. San Francisco Fed President Janet Daly summed up the central bank’s approach, stating that “it really depends on the details.” While the Fed acknowledges Trump’s policies could have a significant economic impact, policymakers cannot adjust their stance based on hypotheticals or political noise. Is the Rate-Cutting Cycle Over? For now, the Fed appears to be in wait-and-see mode. After cutting interest rates three times late last year, the central bank paused further reductions once inflation picked up. Market expectations suggest another rate cut may not happen until December—if at all. This raises a critical question: Is the Fed comfortable with ending the cutting cycle? Analysts at Bank of America have noted that investors want to know if policymakers still lean toward cutting rates or if they believe their job is done. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated that while the central bank considers Washington’s policies, it must remain focused on its core mandate—maintaining low inflation and low unemployment. The upcoming Fed minutes could provide insight into how much officials discussed tariffs and their potential impact, but they are unlikely to reveal anything beyond what has already been stated publicly. How the Fed Has Handled Political Uncertainty Before During Trump’s first term, the central bank deliberately avoided mentioning his name in official meeting minutes to sidestep political influence. However, that does not mean they ignored the economic risks associated with his policies. In 2018, Fed economists modeled scenarios on how tariffs might affect inflation and interest rates, but even then, top officials did not appear to devote much discussion to them in formal meetings. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reinforced this approach, pointing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as an example of how the Fed cannot wait for uncertainty to clear before acting. When the invasion fueled concerns of a global slowdown, some expected the Fed to hold rates steady—but instead, it pushed forward with aggressive hikes because inflation in the U.S. was surging to a 40-year high. As Waller put it: “We could not wait for uncertainty about the war to be resolved.” The same logic applies today—the Fed will react to real economic data, not political speculation. With inflation still elevated and Trump’s tariff strategy evolving, investors will be watching closely for any hints on the Fed’s next move—but they shouldn’t expect definitive answers just yet. |
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| Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
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