An unsettled forecast

Walmart issued a cautious outlook for 2025, reflecting to some extent how one of America’s biggest retailers is taking onboard growing uncertainty about the direction of the US economy.

While the big-box retailer traditionally takes a conservative tack at the beginning of each year, this forecast of lower-than-expected profit was accompanied by an acknowledgement by Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey that “there are still uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions.”

While this month’s data showing US inflation ticking up may be part of that caution, the company said upheaval tied to threats of tariffs from the White House—let alone if Donald Trump follows through—isn’t, leaving the potential for an even more turbulent 2025 should more trade wars start.

Wall Street may see this, too. Walmart’s disappointing outlook sent stocks tumbling from all-time highs. Walmart itself sank 6.5%. And although large retailers tend to perform well during tough economic times, consumers continue to grapple with stubborn prices and high borrowing costs—with analysts saying Walmart’s news raises fresh concerns about the state of the American consumer. —Jordan Parker Erb and David E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

Republican Senator Mitch McConnell says he won’t seek reelection in 2026. McConnell, 83, was the longest-serving majority leader in American history when he relinquished his leadership post at the beginning of the year. During his tenure, McConnell leveraged a solid Republican front and adept use of procedural hurdles to block initiatives of Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. That included his unprecedented and unapologetic decision in 2016 to block consideration of Obama’s final Supreme Court nomination, Merrick Garland, for 11 months. The reasoning given was that it was an election year. The move ended in success for Republicans, as Donald Trump’s victory meant Neil Gorsuch, and not Garland, would take a seat on the court. Four years later, McConnell reversed himself, and pushed through Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett just weeks before Biden’s 2020 election victory. McConnell, who in recent weeks has been the lone Republican to vote against some of Trump’s unorthodox cabinet nominees, is arguably the main person responsible for the 6-3 supermajority that controls the Supreme Court. That court will soon pass judgment on the legality and constitutionality of Trump’s historic consolidation of power, and what it means for the 249-year-old republic.

Senate Republicans confirmed one of Trump’s final cabinet nominees, perhaps the one Democrats opposed the most. Kash Patel was picked to lead the FBI, and like Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before him, comes to the job as a Trump loyalist with little in the way of traditional qualifications. In Patel’s case, he has threatened to weaponize the agency to pursue Trump’s political enemies and members of the news media while praising perpetrators of the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol who Trump later pardoned. Emails obtained by Bloomberg give insight into how Patel might run the bureau. Before Patel’s confirmation, a federal judge denied an effort to force the Justice Department to release part of a report on criminal investigations into Trump that may have shed light on Patel’s actions.The judge was Trump-appointee Aileen Cannon, who shocked legal expert when she threw out Trump’s indictment for allegedly mishandling America’s defense secrets. In an exceptionally furious response to Patel’s confirmation, Democrats called out Republicans over what, in the words of Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut as reported by the Associated Press, is allegedly “a person who will so completely and utterly disgrace this office and do such grave damage to our nation’s justice system.” While two Republicans did not vote for Patel, he still passed by a 51-49 vote. Among the yeas was McConnell.

Mexican central bank policymakers pledged to continue monetary policy easing despite the uncertainty generated by Trump’s as-yet unfulfilled threats to implement tariffs on all of Mexico’s exports. Earlier this month, Banco de Mexico lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 9.5% in a split vote. Several members spoke of a “new stage” of monetary policy in which changes could be made quickly to bring inflation closer to the bank’s 3% target. Some members specified they could consider another half-point cut at the bank’s next decision on March 27, according to the minutes of the bank’s Feb. 6 decision released today.

In Argentina, home loans are coming back. Banks are expected to issue some $3 billion of them in 2025, up about 260% from the year before, according to local consultancy Empiria. The surge is thanks in part to President Javier Milei’s extreme economic policies, which have fueled optimism among Wall Street traders and some Argentinians while supercharging poverty across huge swathes of his country. Still, the right-wing populist needs all the good news he can find these days, given the crypto scandal that’s suddenly engulfed him.

For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine brings many opportunities and a possible threat: China would suddenly become the main focus of the US military. Putting aside the thousands of nuclear warheads Vladimir Putin has aimed at American cities and bases, and that he has repeatedly threatened to use some of them, the Kremlin leader and Trump have sought to renew their cordial relations as the latter seeks to end the war without Ukraine’s input—or Europe’s for that matter. China has publicly welcomed the talks, and is positioning itself to benefit from reconstruction efforts as well as the deepening rift in NATO, as America is increasingly seen as cooling to its historical allies.

What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow

For Your Commute

(The Feb. 18 edition of Evening Briefing Americas was corrected to reflect that the Trump administration is said to be planning the dismissal of 40% of the Federal Housing Administration.)

Enjoying Evening Briefing Americas? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for Asia and Europe. Check out these newsletters, too:

Explore all newsletters at Bloomberg.com.