| Good morning Voornaam, The day has come: Anglo American has released details of the Anglo American Platinum demerger. In fact, the new name for the company is Valterra Platinum, so they are sending a pretty strong message that the cord is being cut. I just wish that the percentages in the announcement added up. I asked on X and nobody could explain it to me, so either Anglo's maths is dicey or I'm being silly. Either way, 67% - 19.9% does not equal 51%.
Moving on, Cashbuild has decided to take a controlling stake in a group of hardware stores. It's a small deal, but it does give me an opportunity to write about pre-money and post-money valuations. It's also an encouraging show of confidence by the management team in the current operating environment.
Finally, aReit has had to recognise large impairments that would bring the NAV crashing down to earth - or at least, close to where the share price was trading anyway. That is, before the share got suspended from trading. Remember when I warned you about this one at the time of listing?
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
For a deep dive into CA&S, you can register for the next Unlock the Stock taking place this Thursday. As always, attendance is free! Register at this link>>>
STADIO is a rare thing: a growth story on the JSE. I sat down for a chat with the CEO (Chris Vorster) and CFO (Ishak Kula) of the group, where we focused on the business model and how it can drive the financial metrics going forwards. With the group embarking on an ambitious plan to build private universities that offer a similar student experience to public institutions, there's a lot to sink your teeth into. Find it here>>>
With markets continuing to behave like a toddler that was forcefed energy drinks, the value of diversification just keeps shining through. The concept of strategic asset allocation is critical for you to understand. Luckily, the Ghost Stories podcast with Kingsley Williams of Satrix is a great way to engage with that way of thinking. Find it here>>>
Good luck out there today! |
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| GHOST STORIES: Diversification - the way to survive market chaos |
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| | | With the markets in disarray in the aftermath of tariffs, it looks like the theme this year is more around risk management in a bear market rather than which growth stocks to buy.
This is where strategic asset allocation becomes key, as discussed with Kingsley Williams of Satrix in this podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: STADIO - a growth story on the JSE |
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| | | STADIO Holdings has a growth story to tell. That’s a rare thing on the South African market. The tertiary education space is booming and STADIO is addressing that demand through a combination of contact learning and distance learning offerings.
On this podcast, CEO Chris Vorster and CFO Ishak Kula joined me to talk through the strategy, the growth prospects, the capital allocation strategy and the risks that keep them up at night. If you want to really dig into the STADIO business model, you’re in the right place! Find it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Anglo American has announced the details of the Anglo American Platinum demerger. Cashbuild is buying a group of hardware stores. aReit took a nasty impairment. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Fortress Real Estate Investments |
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| In the 50th edition of Unlock the Stock, Fortress Real Estate Investments made its debut on the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Adolescence: why do some things go viral? |
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| | | There’s a temptation to treat virality like a shot in the dark. But virality isn’t an accident - it’s chemistry. And when it works, it works for a reason: a potent mix of psychology, social contagion, and cultural timing. Dominique Olivier uses Adolescence as a perfect example in this piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Global economy - recession or recovery? |
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| | | Recession risks, inflation pressures, and trade tensions - how is the global economy shaping up in 2025? Investec’s Chief Economists, Phil Shaw (UK) and Annabel Bishop (SA), take stock of the latest trends in No Ordinary Wednesday. From global growth forecasts to the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa, they break down what lies ahead in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Walgreens is set to be taken private by Sycamore Partners in a deal that was announced back in March. As the deal hasn't been concluded yet, the pharmacy retailer must still release quarterly earnings. The recent numbers show that this is a turnaround story, as there is vast competition in front shop categories (the stuff you buy between the till and the dispensary), as well as margin pressure in the dispensary itself thanks to the power held by Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) in the US.
To make the place work, they are cutting costs and reducing the number of stores. This is a classic strategy of shrinking into prosperity, something that is much easier away from the public eye. Hence, it's a solid candidate for private equity ownership.
It's incredible how often retailers are disrupted. There's a lesson in here about assuming that pharmacy groups in South Africa will be untouchable forever. Disruption can happen anywhere, anytime. Sometimes it's quick, other times it's a slow burn.
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on Chinese giant Alibaba. With Jack Ma back in the spotlight and the share price having rallied strongly before tariffs, is there reason to believe in this story again? For our subscribers, we dig into how Alibaba is making money and whether we would jump in. |
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| Magic Markets: Consumer Conundrum |
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| | | Magic Markets: The first quarter of the year was an unhappy one for most consumer stocks. Tariffs are top of mind, as is the pressure that many brands have been facing in China. Inflation is a risk and consumer sentiment is weak. Against this backdrop, is there opportunity in this sector, or is it better to sit this one out and let the volatility do its thing?
And does it make a difference to look at discretionary vs. defensive stocks? To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| The US stock market plunged after President Donald Trump announced a massive 104% tariff on Chinese imports, triggering widespread market volatility. Major indices recorded significant losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.84% and the S&P 500 dropping 1.57% on Tuesday.
Both the Dow and Nasdaq closed at their lowest levels since January 2024, while the S&P 500 hovers dangerously close to bear market territory, down nearly 19% from its February peak. Futures trading indicates further declines, with Dow futures dropping 1.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.8%.
European markets are poised to open lower despite Monday's brief rally. The STOXX 600, which had broken a four-day losing streak, now struggles amid mounting concerns over US tariffs and potential retaliatory measures from trading partners.
Tensions continue to escalate as the European Union prepares to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports starting April 15, while China has vowed to "fight to the end" against what it terms US "blackmail."
Interestingly, Chinese markets are showing resilience, with both the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index strengthening on government support and state-owned company share buybacks. Meanwhile, the JSE All-Share Index is expected to follow global trends with a lower opening.
Investors are increasingly seeking safety in traditional havens like the Japanese yen and bonds. The dollar has weakened against the yen and Swiss franc, while the South African rand continues to depreciate amid the general risk-off sentiment.
Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest level in more than four years, driven by demand concerns stemming from the escalating US-China tariff war and increasing supply projections.
Gold has staged a modest recovery from oversold conditions, climbing back above the $3,000/oz mark as investors seek protection from market turbulence
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R19.73/$ | US 10yr 4.41% | Gold $3,026/oz | Platinum $917/oz | Brent Crude $61.23
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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