| Good morning Voornaam, On a day in which all the focus was on the budget-speech-that-never-was, SENS lit up with a huge number of updates. If you're tired of reading about VAT, then you're in the right place.
It's been a mining-heavy few days on the local market, which is a useful reminder of the sector upon which our beautiful country has been built. When mining houses make money, they really make money. AngloGold is the perfect example, with a ridiculous increase in free cash flow thanks to costs going up just 4% in a year when the gold price went mad.
As for Sibanye-Stillwater, they can only watch and dream of a world in which they had more gold than PGM exposure. Still, HEPS is expected to be flat to slightly positive there, so perhaps they have finally started to find the bottom.
Other mining news included Glencore releasing a tough set of numbers that focused on cash generation rather than earnings in 2024. Glencore and Merafe shareholders will also want to check out the Sibanye section in Ghost Bites, as there's news regarding the chrome operations. Over at Gemfields, the export duty in Zambia on gemstones has been suspended, so that governmental stupidity is off the table for now at least. And in mining-adjacent news, Aveng's Moolmans business has locked in a multi-year contract in South Africa in the mining sector.
Moving on from mining, Discovery released a strong update with great earnings momentum across its group. Construction group WBHO flagged a solid improvement as well. As for City Lodge, it looks as though the recovery story may have stalled there. There's pressure on Mpact and Transpaco, while Metrofile continues to disappoint the market.
In deal news, Vunani is selling 30% of Fairheads to Old Mutual.
And last but not least, Vodacom released an interesting presentation called Vision 2030. They include some fascinating statistics around growth in Africa.
As you can see, it was a wildly busy day - and this doesn't even include all the Nibbles! There's only one place in the market where you can get this level of detail with one click. Enjoy your Ghost Bites here>>>
For more insights from the mining (and construction) sector, Afrimat will be presenting on Unlock the Stock next week Thursday. Get it in your diaries nice and early and remember to register to attend here>>>
ETFs are a popular choice in portfolios and with good reason. They should form the backbone of any equity portfolio, giving investors broad market exposure at a low cost. The team from Satrix has brought us some fascinating stats this morning about growth in ETFs globally and locally. Get them in this article>>>
With a new Magic Markets podcast out in the wild today, make sure you don't fall behind. Episode 211 was an excellent look at the world of private markets, where many deals are being done these days. To understand how capital and opportunities get connected in that space, you can enjoy this podcast featuring Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke.
Have a great day! |
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| INVESTEC: International Opportunities Limited - a Chinese equity structured product |
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| China is a land that is fraught with risk and brimming with opportunity. With enhanced upside as well as downside protection, International Opportunities Limited is a structured product that seeks to balance the risks and rewards available in Chinese equity markets.
International Opportunities Limited offers 1.3x geared exposure to the CSI 300 Index, capped at 60% growth for a maximum return of 78% in USD. In addition, there is 100% capital protection at maturity in USD.
Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me to discuss the structure in detail. Get it here>>> |
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| SATRIX: 2025 kick-off and fresh views on rent vs. buy |
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| | | Covering a range of personal finance topics and emerging trends in investing, your 2025 kick-off with Duma Mxenge from Satrix is here.
And of course, we couldn't resist talking about property. This led to an in-depth discussion on how I'm approaching the rent vs. buy conundrum.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | That was a mildly insane day of news that featured AngloGold, Aveng, City Lodge, Discovery, Gemfields, Glencore, Metrofile, Mpact, Sibanye, Transpaco, Vodacom, Vunani and WBHO - plus all the Nibbles! Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Woodstock '99: a recipe for a riot |
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| What do you get when you combine an unused airforce base, 220,000 teenagers, a couple of angry nu metal bands and some very expensive water? Part concert, part scene from an apocalyptic movie, the Woodstock festival that took place in 1999 was practically doomed from the start. Read it here>>> |
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| Budget 2025 - what to expect (surprisingly, still a relevant show...) |
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| | | In this special edition of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec experts Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs and Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth share their predictions for Budget 2025. Find this insightful episode here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Etsy's fall from grace in the post-pandemic period has been quite something to behold. Having traded at close to $300 in late 2021, the share price has dropped all the way down to $51. The 52-week low is $47, so there's room to keep falling. The market dished out a 10% smack yesterday in response to a revenue miss in the all-important holiday quarter.
The company is facing increasing competition from Chinese goods, which doesn't sound like the typical issue that you would expect for a platform that specialises in being a marketplace for artisanal goods. I think Etsy is mainly a victim of the need to keep growing, as artisanal models can only scale to a point before they lose their way.
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on The Trade Desk, a company that sits right at the heart of the omni-channel advertising space. By connecting agencies with a variety of advertising opportunities for their clients, the company enjoys wonderful growth tailwinds. It also trades at an insane multiple, which makes the analysis harder than you might think. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this growth stock. |
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| Magic Markets: Private markets are a hive of activity |
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| | | Magic Markets: For companies seeking capital, founders wanting to exit their stake and investors who desire diversification and solid returns, private debt and equity markets offer a vibrant ecosystem. Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management joined us to discuss trends and strategies in this asset class, along with general levels of adoption by investors. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| The Federal Reserve minutes from yesterday showed concerns among officials about inflation risks from Trump's initial policy proposals, with businesses indicating plans to pass tariff costs onto consumers. Despite these hawkish notes, the S&P 500 made slight gains while the dollar and Treasury yields remained largely flat.
European markets, led by Germany's DAX, are declining on Trump's threat of 25% automotive import tariffs and fading optimism around Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.
Asian markets are pulling back from recent highs, with technology stocks leading the decline following new tariff threats targeting semiconductors.
Global market weakness is expected to weigh on the JSE All-Share Index's opening today.
The rand has lost ground after yesterday's Budget Speech delay, with investor sentiment deteriorating due to perceived instability within the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Oil prices are moving sideways, balancing higher US inventory reports against renewed ceasefire uncertainty.
Meanwhile, gold has reached fresh highs, supported by waning peace talks, continued central bank buying, and escalating trade war concerns.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.48/$ | US 10yr 4.51% | Gold $2,945/oz | Platinum $979/oz | Brent Crude $75.60
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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