What’s going on here?

Apple and Amazon posted sturdier-than-expected results on Thursday, but with cautious forecasts that suggest they’re feeling the ground shift.

What does this mean?

Apple and Amazon both beat expectations on revenue and profit, even with tariff worries putting everyone on edge. Amazon’s cloud and advertising businesses delivered – but with the ongoing trade risks, the firm issued a downbeat note. It sees profit for the current quarter missing Wall Street’s expectations – potentially by a lot. Plus, growth in Amazon’s cloud division – though solid at 17% – was at its slowest in a year, raising familiar questions about AI monetization and cloud demand.

Apple sold plenty of iPhones, Macs, and iPads, but its sales in China fell just shy of forecasts – along with those in its most lucrative “services” division. The firm’s been diversifying its supply chain – which management was happy to tout – and that means more US-bound iPhones are now made in India. That’s a big plus: Apple’s already bracing for $900 million in new tariff costs this quarter. No wonder it’s working hard to get investors on side: the firm increased its share buyback program by $100 billion and boosted its quarterly dividend by 4%.

Why should I care?

For markets: Tariffying prospects.

The Magnificent Seven are feeling the pressure from all sides – and new import taxes are only part of it. Sure, Amazon is staring down some margin-crushing new levies on the Made In China goods that dominate its third-party marketplace – but it’s also peering through its fingers at a potential slowdown in ad revenue and cloud spending. As if that wasn’t enough, Amazon and its ilk have plenty more to worry about: antitrust cases and geopolitical risks are bubbling up around the world. And that’s stress-testing the growth assumptions that their “magnificent” valuations – and the S&P 500’s – are based on.

What’s going on here?

Seaport Global made a bold move this week, becoming the only Wall Street analyst to call Nvidia’s stock sell-worthy.

What does this mean?

Nvidia’s shares have slipped 20% this year, underperforming the broader chip sector – a change of direction from their 171% increase last year. Most analysts still like Nvidia’s long-term prospects, though. Plenty say the shares are worth holding – and a whopping 88% rate them a “buy”, estimating their price will climb nearly 50% over the next 12 months.

But Seaport disagrees. The firm thinks the stock has further to fall – all the way down to $100, the worst prediction on Wall Street. See, Seaport believes the best-case scenario is already factored into today’s price, so any pitfalls could leave Nvidia’s performance well short of investors’ lofty expectations. And many of Nvidia’s tech high-rolling clients are rethinking their AI budgets and making some of their chips in-house.

Why should I care?

For markets: Nvidia’s clients are turning into competitors.

Chinese companies had no choice but to work on their own chips, with America banning exports of its top-of-the-line ones. And it looks like Huawei’s time in the lab has paid off: its new system – built with 384 AI chips – beats Nvidia’s best in computing power and memory. No wonder Nvidia’s pleaded for the ban to be removed, warning that American chipmakers could lose customers to Chinese competition.

The big picture: Talk about a winning streak...

Infrastructure companies like Nvidia were the original AI winners, but the next pile of cash could belong to those who embed the tech into everyday products. Just look at Duolingo: the language learning app combines AI with its proprietary data to produce personalized lessons. The app even offers AI video calls to help paid subscribers practice their conversation skills. Morgan Stanley thinks that’ll pad Duolingo’s margins and keep profit growing – which explains why the big bank thinks the stock’s worth buying.