| Good morning Voornaam, Don't worry, there are no April Fool's Day jokes in here. Firstly, your money is no laughing matter. Secondly, the market often dishes things up that are more entertaining anyway!
Yesterday was a very busy day of news, so it's hard to pick out the most interesting stories. I think ArcelorMittal is worth a mention, with a deferral of the closure of the Long business. They've managed to kick the can down the road, with the promise of structural changes by government. Time will tell.
It was a busy day for the property sector. Accelerate Property Fund is looking better, but they need another rights offer. Emira and Vukile also released updates, with an interesting situation that saw Vukile's South African portfolio outperform the Spanish portfolio in the latest financial period.
In terms of general financial updates and results, you'll find the latest from PSG Financial Services (they are still doing really well), Sephaku Holdings and York Timber.
In deal news, AECI is selling its public water division and enX is selling a business called West African International - and no, it isn't in West Africa! Ethos Capital added its name to the list with the sale of a portion of Optasia, the most important investment in the portfolio.
In mining, aside from a number of smaller updates, Jubilee Metals announced results and blamed lower chrome prices for the performance. I struggle to reconcile that narrative with the underlying details.
And finally, Phil Roux has resigned as the CEO of Nampak. If anything, I think shareholders might have hoped that this was an April Fool's joke. The announcement came out on 31 March though, so I'm afraid that it's real.
As always, these details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
There's a great new Ghost Stories episode dealing with the budget speech. Specifically, I spoke to Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa about whether VAT really is anti-poor and how bracket creep affects middle-class South Africans. Having deliberately waited for the dust to settle before doing this podcast, it's a great way to zoom in on the most important concepts. Get it here>>>
The latest Magic Markets episode continues our theme of looking beyond the US to show you what else is out there. This week, we talked about the macroeconomic outlook for African currencies and the South African companies that would benefit if things went well. We also discussed the elements of offshore acquisitions that can make them successes or failures. Get it here>>>
Have a great day! |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: VAT strategies, bracket creep and what it means for South Africans |
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| | | With the dust having settled on the Budget Speech and the proposals that parliament will need to vote on, Tertius Troost of Forvis Mazars in South Africa joined me to reflect on the key drivers behind the headlines.
VAT has been the focus area, but is it true that a VAT increase is anti-poor? And is it correct to rebut the “South Africa has a small taxpayer base” argument by pointing out that everyone pays VAT? What is bracket creep and how does it affect middle-class South Africans?
These questions and more are answered in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | After a very busy day of news, get the latest on Accelerate Property Fund, AECI, ArcelorMittal, Emira, enX, Ethos Capital, Jubilee Metals, Nampak, PSG Financial Services, Sephaku, Vukile and York Timber - plus the Nibbles! Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Homechoice International |
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| In the 49th edition of Unlock the Stock, Homechoice International made its debut on the platform to talk about the interesting mix of retail and fintech businesses in the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Hot takes: chillies and the human desire for suffering |
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| | | Curry. Con carne. Arrabbiata. Peri-peri. In almost every corner of this world, you’ll find a dish that’s been given the signature bite of the chilli pepper. As strong as they are small, these pungent peppers have achieved the culinary equivalent of world domination, when all they really wanted to do was to get us to stop eating them. Dominique Olivier explains>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Global economy - recession or recovery? |
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| | | Recession risks, inflation pressures, and trade tensions - how is the global economy shaping up in 2025? Investec’s Chief Economists, Phil Shaw (UK) and Annabel Bishop (SA), take stock of the latest trends in No Ordinary Wednesday. From global growth forecasts to the economic outlook for Europe and South Africa, they break down what lies ahead in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Remember when the US imposed sanctions on Huawei? It was rather heartbreaking for me at the time, as I had a Huawei phone that was spectacularly good value for money with an excellent camera. This forced me to change brand when I needed a new phone, even though I didn't want to.
It seems as though Huawei is finding a way to navigate the challenges, with a 22.4% increase in revenue in 2024. Smartphone sales in China are doing well. Although it sounds like US sanctions shouldn't affect domestic sales, keep in mind that they do create a lot of supply chain challenges for Huawei that had to be managed.
Although revenue is up, net profit fell by 28% aas the group had to ramp up the spending in its business.
Of course, Magic Markets Premium is where you'll find the research that drives my watchlist. This week, we covered BMW as part of our efforts to look at opportunities beyond the US. For our subscribers, the report on BMW drives home the point of how severe the Chinese disruption really is. |
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| Magic Markets: The art of investing in art |
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| | | Magic Markets: Tristanne Farrell isn’t shy to admit it: she’s mildly obsessed with art. As a Senior Wealth Manager at Investec Wealth & Investment International, her day job is to help clients build diversified, successful portfolios. Thankfully, with art as one of the more interesting (and certainly most visually stimulating) alternative assets out there, she gets to enjoy some overlap between her passion and her career, including hosting the Art in Focus podcast series.
She joined us to talk about art as an investment, bringing a mix of genuine passion and solid insights into this asset class. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| US markets showed resilience, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing higher, despite Treasury yields edging lower amid concerns about the impact of Trump's trade policies on domestic and global growth. The positive performance may be partially attributed to quarter-end rebalancing activities.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised recession concerns, assigning a 35% probability to an economic downturn in the U.S. while cutting its growth forecast from 2% to 1.5%.
European and Asian markets displayed mixed performance this morning as investors cautiously await President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement scheduled for tomorrow.
On balance we are expecting the JSE All-Share Index open slightly firmer this morning.
The dollar weakened alongside Treasury yields as market participants prepared for potential reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration this week.
The rand is trading marginally weaker this morning as budget negotiations between the Government of National Unity (GNU) reach their final hour. Comments from DA suggest challenges remain in finding accord between major political parties.
Gold continues its impressive run, reaching yet another record high as investors seek safe-haven assets amid fears that Trump's tariff plans could accelerate inflation and economic uncertainty.
Oil markets saw modest declines, as traders weigh the potential economic damage from a trade war against ongoing supply disruption concerns.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.39/$ | US 10yr 4.19% | Gold $3,136/oz | Platinum $1,026/oz | Brent Crude $74.86
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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