The US antes up in the rare-earths game |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for July 17th in 3:13 minutes.

  1. ASML beat expectations for now – but with next year looking less sunny than the chipmaking firm originally thought, investors ditched its stock
  2. Climate shocks are disrupting supply chains, and hitting portfolios hard – Read Now
  3. America’s biggest rare earth producer just landed a major government contract – and it’s aiming to loosen China’s grip on the global supply chain

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Future Shock
Future Shock

What’s going on here?

Chipmaking equipment supplier ASML sailed past expectations last quarter, but its bleak perspective on next year left investors stunned – and not in a good way.

What does this mean?

The Dutch giant pulled in $8.9 billion of sales and $2.7 billion of profit – both ahead of Wall Street estimates. Orders came in solid, too, with $6.4 billion in new bookings. But the party ended with ASML’s outlook. The firm expects to end the year with just 15% growth – the uninspiring midpoint of its earlier forecast. Worse, ASML walked back its earlier projections of growth in 2026, saying that the overall economic and geopolitical picture is just too cloudy for it to make a confident growth forecast. If the company’s revenue does flatline, it’d break a 12-year streak of increases. That rattled investors and triggered a sharp, swift 7% drop for the stock – its worst in months.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: AI’s backbone is trading at a discount.

ASML builds the machines that churn out the chips powering the AI boom. But while Nvidia’s stock has soared, ASML’s has fallen – by a third over the past year. That’s partly because investors have been antsy about inconsistent orders, tighter export rules, and US tariff threats. Still, with the firm’s near-monopoly on the most advanced chipmaking gear and enviable margins, this stock slide could be less of a warning and more of an opportunity...

Zooming out: Chipmakers may be about to catch a break.

The US just gave Nvidia and AMD the green light to resume some sales of AI chips to China – a surprise U-turn that could produce billions of dollars in revenue this year. That might send good vibes up the supply chain to ASML, especially if customers like TSMC ramp up production. For a sector caught in the policy crossfire, even a little loosening could go a long way.

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FROM OUR RESEARCH DESK

The Supply Chain Threats That Could Hit Your Portfolio Next

The Supply Chain Threats That Could Hit Your Portfolio Next

When a single flood in Thailand shut down global electronics production in 2011, it was a wake-up call.

The rising water, the country’s worst in half a century, halted factory production and caused widespread disruption to global supply chains.

That led to severe shortages of components for electronics and cars, exposing the fragility of geographically concentrated supply networks. Here’s the lesson it left for investors.

That’s today’s Insight: the supply chain threats that could hit your portfolio next.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Texas Hold ’Em
Texas Hold ’Em

What’s going on here?

MP Materials – a rare earth miner and producer – just raised the stakes, signing a deal with the US Department of Defense to ramp up stateside production of the metals.

What does this mean?

Rare earth metals are essential materials for the magnets used in things like electric vehicles, solar cells, and fighter jets. China produces 90% of the world’s supply right now, but MP thinks it can knock that down. After pouring $1 billion into its supply chain, the firm has fired up the first serious US rare earth factory in decades – in Fort Worth, Texas – and now it’s got fresh government funding to keep up that play. In fact, the Defense Department just became MP’s number one shareholder, giving the firm the green light to build an even bigger facility that’ll increase output by a multiple of ten. It’s not going it alone, either: Apple’s just come to the table with a $500 million order of recycled-material magnets due in 2027. And General Motors is already a customer, expecting deliveries later this year.

Why should I care?

For markets: Everything’s bigger in Texas.

MP’s stock has tripled this year, and it wasn’t down to luck. US-made magnets cost about 50% more than Chinese ones – but for carmakers, defense firms, and smartphone giants, paying up is better than risking supply-chain chaos. And that pricing power should keep America’s rare earth producers looking strong.

Zooming out: Reuse, recycle, reap the benefits.

Supply chain resilience is the new boardroom buzzword, making MP's recycled magnets look attractive (pun intended). A new wave of recycling startups – and even big mining names like Glencore – are diving into old phones, spent EV batteries, and abandoned data centers to salvage rare earths, lithium, and copper. And with global e-waste expected to hit 82 million tons by 2030, the next materials boom could well be mining the junk drawer.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made."

– Otto von Bismarck (a German statesman and diplomat)

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Crypto Industry Investing Risk — Companies in the crypto industry are subject to various risks, including the inability to develop digital asset applications or to capitalize on those applications, theft, loss, or destruction of cryptographic keys, the possibility that digital asset technologies may never be fully implemented, cybersecurity risk, conflicting intellectual property claims, and inconsistent and changing regulations.

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