| Good morning Voornaam, Welcome to what is probably the weirdest week in all of April. As I started writing this, I nearly wished you a happy Monday! None of us know what day of the week it is, much like that strange period between Christmas and New Year. Nevertheless, thanks for opening Ghost Mail despite a haze of holiday-inspired confusion.
There's some great news to kick us off, as a new listing is coming to the JSE this year. This isn't just a spin-off by an existing group, as we saw with Boxer and WeBuyCars. No, this is brand spanking new - and in the technology sector, nogal! Well, more the chemistry sector, but we won't complain. ASP Isotopes will be joining our market this year and with 19% of staff members holding a PhD, there's no shortage of talent running around.
In the mining sector, Impala Platinum had a pretty rough quarter. Despite this, they've maintained guidance for the full year. The same can't be said for Merafe, where two of the operations in the joint venture with Glencore have been suspended based on weak market demand. And over at Renergen, losses have widened considerably.
Moving on from mining, Finbond has announced an intention to raise capital through the issuance of unlisted preference shares. Although they are quick to point out that this is non-dilutive for shareholders, you definitely shouldn't be naive about the risks. In the property sector, Delta Property Fund announced an asset disposal. And finally, YeboYethu has much more to smile about these days thanks to the uplift in the Vodacom share price.
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
Nico Katzke of Satrix has written an excellent piece that deals with a number of current investment themes. From gold to government bonds and emerging markets, he's touched on a wide range of topics in a fast-paced article. I highly recommend giving it a read at this link>>>
To add to your understanding of what's going on out there, Investec brings you a new episode of No Ordinary Wednesday. This excellent podcast is hosted by Jeremy Maggs and the recent focus has unsurprisingly been on Trump and the tariffs. It really is a solid way to stay on top of what's going on, with the latest episode featuring Chris Holdsworth and Osa Mazwai of Investec. Get it here>>>
I have a great love of the financial ecosystem and how different opportunities can be structured. As you are probably aware, public markets have been struggling with a relative lack of IPOs, accompanied by a trend of delistings. This is because an increasing number of transactions are happening in the private space. On the latest Magic Markets, Connie Bloem of Mesh.Trade joined us to talk about how Mesh is improving access to good quality "private" assets. Enjoy it here>>>
And in case you missed it in Weekender on Sunday, Dominique Olivier's latest piece is on the IVF pioneer that the world (almost) forgot. The story of how IVF was developed really is fascinating. Get it here>>>
Have a lovely day and please do your best to remember that today is Tuesday! |
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| SATRIX: What's Trumps in a Topsy-Turvy World? |
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| | | Nico Katzke of Satrix covers a number of critical investment trends in the current environment, ranging from the appeal of gold through to the risks facing bonds.
Other topics include emerging markets and valuations of US equities.
As always, diversification is key!
Get the insights in this fast-paced article at this link>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: Debt markets - the other side of the coin |
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| | | Intengo Market is a digital marketplace for debt instruments in South Africa, driving outcomes like increased liquidity and price discovery.
CEO Ian Norden joined me on this podcast to give an overview of the debt markets in South Africa. From trends in public vs. private markets through to how Dutch auctions work, there's so much in here - and you can expect many more insights in months to come.
Learn all about the debt markets in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | ASP Isotopes is coming to the JSE. Implats had a tough quarter. Merafe is pulling back on production with Glencore. Renergen's losses widened. Delta Property Fund is selling a property. Finbond wants to raise capital with prefs. YeboYethu enjoyed a higher vodacom share price. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - CA Sales Holdings |
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| In the 51st edition of Unlock the Stock, regular attendee CA Sales Holdings returned to the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The IVF pioneer the world (almost) forgot |
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| | | Science doesn’t just progress in laboratories. It unfolds in the margins, shaped by the people, politics, and institutions around it. The story of IVF, when told in full, reminds us that breakthroughs are often born twice: once in the petri dish, and again in the public imagination. Dominique Olivier explains how IVF was really developed in this piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Tariffs - pause and effect |
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| | | Where are investors seeking refuge amid uncertainty? And will the recent rebound in global stocks last? In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec Wealth and Investment International's Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth, and investment strategist Osa Mazwai explore the ongoing impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Despite having a beautiful model range and a strong EV strategy, even Volvo is under serious pressure in the automotive industry. They have announced a cost-cutting plan of nearly $1.9 billion, a direct result of operating profit falling 60% year-on-year in the latest quarter. EBIT margin was just 2.3% in the latest period, a reminder of just how tough it is for car manufacturers. To add to the pain, the company is no longer providing earnings guidance for 2025 and 2026. Yikes!
In tech news, Alphabet released results that reflected decent growth in the search business despite all the disruption from AI. I still think that Alphabet is vulnerable here, as the AI Overview that it is using on its search results is really hurting website owners who were reliant on traffic being pushed to their sites. I don't know where this all ends with AI and I'm not sure that anyone does, but what I do know is that the way people are using the internet is changing. That's not great for Alphabet and its historically dominant market positioning with Google.
This week in Magic Markets Premium, we've covered JPMorgan. The banking giant is a core position in our portfolios, but even Jamie Dimon's crew isn't immune to recessions. As our subscribers will find out in the research, we are watching this one carefully this year. |
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| Magic Markets: Mesh.Trade - Unlocking Private Markets |
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| | | Magic Markets: As the recent trend in IPOs and delistings on public markets tells us, an increasing number of companies are looking to private markets for their capital raising needs. This means that retail investors are being shut out of these opportunities, which is particularly problematic as these early-stage opportunities usually offer the highest potential returns.
Mesh.Trade is committed to increasing access for investors, which is why the platform is designed to enable issuers to raise debt and/or equity funding.
Connie Bloem joined us to talk about why access to good quality private assets is so important in the South African market. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| Stocks are drifting sideways this morning while the dollar continues its weakness, on track for its largest monthly decline in years. The ongoing US-China trade dispute remains the central market focus.
Donald Trump's tariff policies have undermined confidence in US assets. Despite partial recoveries in the S&P 500 from early April losses following several policy reversals, the dollar has failed to regain strength.
China has strategically implemented some tariff exemptions while withholding stimulus measures, apparently waiting for Washington to make concessions first. Chinese officials have contradicted Trump's recent claims, stating that President Xi has not spoken with Trump and that no negotiations for a tariff agreement are currently underway between the administrations.
Futures markets show modest optimism, with Nikkei and S&P 500 futures edging higher after hints of potential reductions in automotive tariffs. However, investors remain cautious, hoping for substantial relief from the substantial 145% U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.
Chinese mainland stocks are slightly lower in volatile trading, while Hong Kong shares post small gains. Investors are hesitant to take significant positions until US tariff intentions and their economic impact become clearer.
While the rand has continued to strengthen against a weakening dollar, we are expecting a flat open for the JSE All-Share Index this morning.
Safe-haven assets like gold have declined modestly as trade tensions show signs of easing, while investors await upcoming US economic data for insights into potential Federal Reserve policy directions.
Oil markets are under pressure as traders adjust demand growth expectations downward due to trade war concerns between the world's two largest economies. Adding to oil's weakness are expectations that OPEC+ may announce production increases for a second consecutive month.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.55/$ | US 10yr 4.23% | Gold $3,316/oz | Platinum $993/oz | Brent Crude $65.13
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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