| | | | Fin de Régime in Syria By Winfield Myers ● Dec 08, 2024 Smart Brevity® count: 6 mins...1629 words New developments in the Middle East demand ongoing coverage, and to that end this second MEF Dispatch for today includes the latest analyses to keep you abreast of fast-changing headlines. Jonathan Spyer writes in the Wall Street Journal that Assad’s fall “marks the eclipse” of the Iran-backed axis of resistance—which the region now sees as a “paper tiger.” In a longer Spectator piece, Spyer explains the reasons for Assad’s rapid fall from power; in a nutshell, he didn’t get a little help from his friends when he needed it most. Jim Hanson analyzes what the dictator’s overthrow means for Syria as well as for its erstwhile allies Russia and Iran, which, as Assad’s biggest backers, are also losers in this struggle. Staying with a theme, Michael Rubin argues that Yemen’s Houthis should follow Assad to exile in wintry Moscow as a first step to restoring stability to the entire Arabian Peninsula. What are the implications of Assad’s fall for Israel? Gregg Roman advises American-Israeli cooperation to secure Western interests and prevent the chaos in the former Syrian government-run regions from spilling into the rest of Syria, Jordan, and beyond. That doesn’t mean the resurrection of the pre-civil war Syrian state, however. Loqman Radpey argues that the time has come for Israel and the U.S. to recognize Rojava, the self-governed Kurdish region of Syria, as an Autonomous State of Kurdistan. Moving to Iran, Michael Rubin notes the ongoing grievances among minority groups in Iran writes that, with Saudi support and tribal backing from Iraq, an Arab uprising within Iran is possible. Rubin also deduces the lessons learned from Assad’s rapid and unexpected fall. Syria was a hollow state, he notes, with a decimated economy, unchecked corruption, and an unpopular conscript army. More broadly, he argues that Iran, Egypt, Kuwait, and Azerbaijan are vulnerable to a Syria-like collapse. Assad’s fall could soon claim the scalps of other long-term dictators. Temper the jubilation. Jihadis ascendant in Damascus. | Assad's Fall Highlights Iran's Vulnerability By Jonathan Spyer Iran's regional influence is crumbling following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, exposing the limitations of its proxy network, writes Jonathan Spyer in the Wall Street Journal. Why it matters: Tehran's weakened axis of resistance poses strategic implications for regional security and power dynamics. The loss of Syria severs Iran's critical supply lines to Hezbollah, diminishing its operational capacity. Iran's failure to retaliate against recent Israeli strikes highlights its struggle to maintain dominance. The big picture: Iran's reliance on proxy warfare has been undermined by direct confrontations with Israel. Historical successes in leveraging proxies like Hezbollah and Shiite militias are now overshadowed by recent defeats. What’s next: The Middle East faces a recalibration of power as Iran's influence wanes. Regional actors may reassess alliances and strategies in light of Iran's diminished capabilities. Read more by clicking here. | Assad's Fall Reshapes Middle East Dynamics By Jonathan Spyer The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a historic shift in the Middle East, ending 61 years of Ba'ath party rule. Why it matters: This power shift highlights the fragility of Assad's regime without its traditional allies, Iran and Russia, to prop it up. Iran's proxy militias, crucial in past conflicts, were incapacitated due to recent Israeli interventions. Russia is preoccupied with its military engagements in Ukraine, unable to assist Assad as before. The big picture: The Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swiftly capitalized on the regime's weaknesses. Their rapid advance through Syria's major cities underscores the vulnerability of Assad's hollowed-out institutions. What’s next: The fall of Assad may lead to a realignment of regional power dynamics, with Iran's influence notably diminished. Regional players like Turkey may assert greater influence over Syria's future. Read more by clicking here. | Jim Hanson on Syria's Power Shift Jim Hanson on FOX News Channel MEF’s Jim Hanson discusses the collapse of Assad's regime on FOX News, highlighting the ensuing regional power struggle. Why it matters: Assad's fall opens a new chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics impacting regional stability. Hanson's insights reveal potential shifts in alliances and military strategies affecting global security dynamics. The big picture: As Hanson explains, Russia and Iran's losses in Syria contrast with Turkey's strategic gains. While Russia and Iran retreat, Erdoğan's Turkey emerges as a dominant force with its own ambitions. What’s next: Hanson warns of potential Islamist factions rising, aiming to establish a new caliphate. His analysis suggests close monitoring of Turkey and Israel's responses to the evolving situation. | Houthis' Rule Challenged By Michael Rubin With Assad's downfall, Yemenis hope for an end to Houthi dominance as the U.S. and allies consider intervention. Why it matters: The departure of Assad has shifted power dynamics in the Middle East, offering a strategic opportunity to challenge Houthi rule in Yemen. The U.S. and moderate Arab states could capitalize on this moment to support Yemenis seeking stability and governance reform. The big picture: The Houthis, like Assad, are plagued by governance failures and corruption, relying on force rather than legitimacy. Their support, limited to tribal affiliations, contrasts with the broader competence of the Southern Transitional Council. What’s next: The international community, led by the U.S., must enforce the Stockholm Agreement and curb Houthi arms supplies. Strategic sanctions and diplomatic pressure could weaken Houthi control, restoring peace in Yemen. Read more by clicking here. | Syria’s Power Shift: Implications for Israel By Gregg Roman The fall of Damascus is reshaping Middle East security, calling for swift Israeli and U.S. action to protect interests. Why it matters: Iran's setback presents strategic opportunities; however, Turkey's growing influence poses challenges that require coordinated responses. The big picture: Turkey's support has empowered forces hostile to Israel, taking over Assad's military assets, including strategic bases and chemical sites. The Golan Heights' security is paramount for Israel to safeguard against emerging threats from Syria. What’s next: The U.S. and Israel must bolster cooperation to prevent hostile forces from gaining a foothold in Syria. Joint operations can hinder weapons transfers and mitigate threats from Iran-backed militias. Key actions: Enhance U.S. military presence to secure allied interests and deter hostilities in eastern Syria. Grant Israel the freedom to address threats from Syrian territory. Foster regional alliances with Gulf states to prevent extremist exploitation of power vacuums. Read more by clicking here. | Recognizing Rojava's Autonomy By Loqman Radpey The dismantling of Assad's regime presents an opportunity to acknowledge Rojava as an autonomous state, aligning with Kurdish aspirations. Why it matters: The Kurds' quest for self-determination mirrors Israel's historical struggles, suggesting a natural alliance. Recognizing Rojava would bolster regional stability and counter Islamist threats near Israel's borders. The big picture: Turkey's aggressive policies in Rojava underscore the need for international recognition and support. Kurdish forces have been instrumental in maintaining peace and deserve backing from Israel and the U.S. What’s next: Israel should formalize relations with Rojava, establishing diplomatic missions to strengthen mutual security. Military aid and strategic cooperation could enhance Rojava’s defense against regional threats. Shared ideals: The Kurdish struggle resonates with Israel's history, offering a partnership rooted in democracy and mutual respect. Formal recognition is a geopolitical necessity to ensure a stable, progressive Middle East. Read more by clicking here. | Potential Arab Uprising in Iran By Michael Rubin Ethnic grievances in Iran, particularly among Arabs, Baluch, and Kurds, could spark an uprising, influenced by the fall of Assad's regime. Why it matters: The weakening of Iran's regional proxies suggests vulnerability within the regime, providing an opportunity for ethnic minorities to challenge their oppression. Areas like Khuzestan, with historical grievances, could become focal points for unrest. The big picture: Iran's minorities have long faced discrimination and neglect from Tehran, fueling discontent. The fall of regional allies like Hezbollah and Assad highlights the regime's diminishing power. What’s next: Potential support from Saudi Arabia and Iraqi tribes could embolden Iranian minorities to seek change. Historical precedents suggest that peripheral rebellions can lead to significant national shifts. Strategic implications: An uprising could reshape Iran's internal dynamics, challenging the Islamic Republic's hold on power. The regime's response will likely frame any rebellion as separatism, though motives may be more about reform and democracy. Read more by clicking here. | Lessons from Assad's Fall By Michael Rubin The quick collapse of Assad’s regime offers vital lessons for other countries with similar dynamics. Why it matters: Assad's fall underscores that dictatorships, reliant on conscript armies and weakened economies, are vulnerable to swift upheaval. Countries like Iran, Egypt, and Azerbaijan face similar challenges, raising questions about their stability. The big picture: Assad's downfall was not just due to external forces but internal weaknesses, including a demoralized military and economic collapse. The Syrian regime's reliance on conscript soldiers highlighted the dangers of nepotism and corruption. What’s next: Other regimes with similar dynamics may face similar fates if they fail to address underlying grievances and reform. The potential for regional instability is high, especially if economic pressures and ethnic tensions continue to rise. Strategic implications: The fall of Assad serves as a warning to dictatorships, emphasizing the need for genuine reform and engagement with marginalized groups. Countries must learn from Syria’s experience to prevent similar outcomes. Read more by clicking here. | | Assad's fall marks a seismic shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics, with Iran and Russia emerging as the clear losers while new threats rise in Damascus. The swift collapse of his regime exposes the vulnerability of similar autocratic systems in Iran, Egypt, Kuwait, and Azerbaijan, all of which share Syria's fatal combination of economic decay, widespread corruption, and reliance on conscript armies. While Turkey and Sunni Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gain influence in the power vacuum, the situation creates both opportunities and challenges for regional stability. Israel and the United States must now act decisively to prevent chaos from spreading, secure strategic assets, and potentially support Kurdish autonomy in Rojava – all while remaining vigilant about the jihadist forces now on the rise in Damascus. Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
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