| Good morning Voornaam, I hope you had a lovely Valentine's Day and subsequent weekend. If you found yourself in the Venn diagram of (1) planning something romantic and (2) having a chunky amount invested in Aveng, I really hope you had dinner and only then looked at your portfolio later in the weekend. The other way around would've been a mood killer.
That's because Aveng managed to lose a quarter of its value in just one day on Friday! With the news of trouble in the McConnell Dowell business, Aveng now expects to be loss making. Construction breaks just as many hearts as love.
Moving on, Metair is making significant changes to their business model. It may look fairly tame at the moment with the Autozone acquisition as the first step in that dance, but I think there's a shift happening at Metair in terms of their appetite for customer concentration risk. I can't blame them, as there's been one nightmare after the next at the group. Would you rather sell a lot of components to one major customer or a few components to thousands of customers? I prefer the latter and it seems that Metair is heading that way, although the balance sheet is so weak that I think there's some risk of an equity raise being required as part of the refinanced debt package. Take that into account if you feel like catching this particular falling knife.
Finally, aside from a wide variety of Nibbles, you'll find an update on Jubilee's Roan facility and the progress being made with the high-grade feed material.
Get these details and the Nibbles in Ghost Bites this morning>>>
South African portfolios tend to have two kinds of equity assets in them: local shares and US-listed shares. Although few would argue that anyone has been missing out in Europe, the same can't be said for other emerging markets. China is particularly tricky to get right, which is exactly why Investec's latest structured product offering seeks to remove the downside risk from the equation. You can find out more in this article and if you like what you see, I suggest listening to the detailed podcast as well.
The Budget Speech is looming and that's always an important time of the year for South Africans. To help you understand what to expect and what to look out for, Investec's latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday features Annabel Bishop, Tertia Jacobs and Chris Holdsworth in conversation with media stalwart Jeremy Maggs. You need to invest just over 20 minutes of your time to make sure you are well prepared for Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's big day. Enjoy it here>>>
Finally, as a lighter read to kickstart your week, Dominique Olivier's latest piece is on Woodstock '99. From peace and love in the '60s to price gouging and riots three decades later, it's a truly insane story. Find it here>>>
Have a great day! |
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| INVESTEC: International Opportunities Limited - a Chinese equity structured product |
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| China is a land that is fraught with risk and brimming with opportunity. With enhanced upside as well as downside protection, International Opportunities Limited is a structured product that seeks to balance the risks and rewards available in Chinese equity markets.
International Opportunities Limited offers 1.3x geared exposure to the CSI 300 Index, capped at 60% growth for a maximum return of 78% in USD. In addition, there is 100% capital protection at maturity in USD.
Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me to discuss the structure in detail. Get it here>>> |
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| SATRIX: 2025 kick-off and fresh views on rent vs. buy |
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| | | Covering a range of personal finance topics and emerging trends in investing, your 2025 kick-off with Duma Mxenge from Satrix is here.
And of course, we couldn't resist talking about property. This led to an in-depth discussion on how I'm approaching the rent vs. buy conundrum.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Aveng broke a number of hearts on Valentine's Day with a 25% drop in the share price. Metair is making major strategic changes. Jubilee Metals is playing catch-up at the Roan facility. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Woodstock '99: a recipe for a riot |
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| What do you get when you combine an unused airforce base, 220,000 teenagers, a couple of angry nu metal bands and some very expensive water? Part concert, part scene from an apocalyptic movie, the Woodstock festival that took place in 1999 was practically doomed from the start. Read it here>>> |
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| Budget 2025 - what to expect |
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| | | In this special edition of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec experts Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs and Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth share their predictions for Budget 2025. Find this insightful episode here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| As someone who thinks that people spend too much time working and not enough time just having fun, it warms my heart to see that Sony is growing strongly in the gaming business. Operating profit jumped 37% in the latest quarter, driven by a combination of hardware and software / services. The PlayStation is as popular as ever, with a 5% increase in monthly active users across the PlayStation platforms. With these numbers accompanied by a strong forecast for 2024, Sony's share price rallied sharply and is 12% higher over the past week. In the past year, Sony is up 43%! That's even better than Nintendo's 36% performance.
In the luxury space, Hermes sits at the very top of the food chain. I remember looking through the window at the Hermes store in Florence when I travelled last year and seeing a frisbee (yes, of the throw-it-for-my-dog variety) that cost a couple of thousand euros. Each to their own, I guess. With a 17.6% jump in sales in the latest quarter, there are clearly a lot of super-wealthy consumers happy to pay up for anything with the Hermes name on it. I suspect that the famous Birkin bag is where the real action is though, with the frisbees just there for you to show the sales attendant in the store that you're serious about getting a Birkin allocation. If you want to learn more about the Birkin, Dominique Olivier wrote about its incredible story (and even more outrageous supply and demand dynamics) in this excellent piece back in May last year.
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on ASML, the company in the semiconductor industry that you've never heard of. This is because they sit further up the value chain, supplying the machines that actually manufacture the chips! They even have a monopoly in certain technologies. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this company as an alternative way to play the AI theme. |
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| Magic Markets: Private markets are a hive of activity |
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| | | Magic Markets: For companies seeking capital, founders wanting to exit their stake and investors who desire diversification and solid returns, private debt and equity markets offer a vibrant ecosystem. Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management joined us to discuss trends and strategies in this asset class, along with general levels of adoption by investors. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| US retail and core retail sales fell significantly below expectations on Friday, fuelling continued weakness in both the dollar and Treasury yields. US and European index futures point to a flat opening, while Asian markets show gains amid volatile trading conditions.
Japan's GDP data exceeded forecasts, indicating stronger economic growth in the region. However, the Nikkei's gains have been limited by Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs on motor vehicle imports starting April.
The rand remains firm against a softer greenback and the JSE All-Share Index is expected to follow Asian bourses higher on open.
Oil prices declined late last week following Trump's statement about a possible meeting with Putin 'soon' that is aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Any resolution could lead to reduced sanctions on Russia, potentially increasing global oil supply.
Gold prices are rebounding after Friday's slight retreat from overbought levels, finding support from new tariff threats and the weakening dollar.
No major economic data releases are scheduled for today.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.35/$ | US 10yr 4.48% | Gold $2,895/oz | Platinum $1,016/oz | Brent Crude $74.90
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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