🔍 The focus this week: Earnings season

🏦 Earnings season is kicking off – and, as usual, Wall Street’s up first. Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will deliver updates on Tuesday. And Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will follow on Wednesday.

☺️ With busier trading and dealmaking in May and June, the market’s anticipating nicer results. And after looser capital rules were announced last month with the Federal Reserve’s latest stress test, investors are rubbing their palms together, hoping for fatter buybacks and bigger dividends. Put simply, expectations are high.

🌡️ But it’s not just financials on the earnings hot seat this week. Heavyweight chipmaker TSMC reports on Thursday – just a week after unveiling record second-quarter sales. And traders will be paying close attention to what the firm has to say about the rest of 2025. As Nvidia’s go-to chipmaker and a key AI supplier, its outlook could move the whole tech sector. Netflix also reports on Thursday: its stock’s already up 44% this year, thanks to a content strategy that’s drawn love from subscribers and shareholders.

🥙 But it could be a tough week, so analysts will be eating lunch at their desks and putting in the hours. They expect S&P 500 profit growth to have slowed to just 4% last quarter – down from 12% – with margins narrowing as tariffs delivered a pounding. So keep an eye out for hints about how companies are adjusting to life under those new import taxes, and how much (or how little) of the cost increase they plan to pass on to their customers. And pay attention when the economic data lands, too. The consumer price index showed virtually no tariff impact in May, but the June update could tell a different narrative. It’s due to be released on Tuesday.

📅 On the calendar

• Monday: China economic growth (second quarter), China industrial production (June), China retail sales (June).
• Tuesday: Eurozone industrial production (June), US inflation (June). Earnings: BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo.
• Wednesday: UK inflation (June), US industrial production (June). Earnings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson.
• Thursday: UK employment (June), eurozone inflation (June), US retail sales (June), Japan inflation (June). Earnings: Abbott Labs, Pepsi, TSMC, Netflix.
• Friday: US consumer sentiment (July). Earnings: 3M, American Express.

👀 What you might’ve missed last week

🌎 The US

• The US government extended its pause on new tariffs from July 9th to August 1st, possibly because only three trade deals had been signed so far (well below the 90 that were pledged). Still, tariffs remained a hot topic: New York copper prices surged to a record high, and coffee prices jumped too, as the US president threatened brand new import taxes on the red metal and goods from Brazil.

• Nvidia became the first company ever to hit $4 trillion in market value, rising nearly 90% from its April lows, on expectations that AI and robotics will drive trillions in sales over the coming years. The firm also announced a new China-focused AI chip that plays nice with US export rules – with a launch planned for September.

🌏 Asia

• TSMC – the factory floor for the AI revolution – reported a 39% jump in quarterly revenue compared to the same period last year, beating expectations. The world’s go-to chipmaker’s results reassured investors that corporate spending on next-gen infrastructure is still going strong.

• Producer prices in China fell 3.6% in June, compared to last year – the steepest decline in almost two years. That ginned up fresh worries about deflation and excess capacity in the world’s second-biggest economy. And with higher US tariffs adding to the economy’s troubles, investors have begun betting on a new spending package aimed at boosting the country’s fragile property sector.