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15 June 2020
Hello Voornaam,

Markets recovered slightly on Friday following a four-day drubbing as sentiment soured - made worse after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the world's biggest economy still faced a long road to recovery and warned about the massive uncertainty that Covid-19 has introduced to economic activity.

As Powell warned about the implications for the US economy, the quarterly business confidence index from RMB and the Bureau for Economic Research showed confidence slumping to its lowest since the survey began in 1975, registering at just 5 points out of a possible 100 for the June quarter, down from 18 in March.

The loss of confidence is apparent in the latest results and profit warnings from JSE-listed companies. Barloworld says it will report a loss per share - and much reduced normalised headline earnings - when it releases its full-year results at the end of the month. Apart from the impact of Covid-19 on its operations towards the tail end of the period, it has also had to allowed for higher credit losses and impairments.

City Lodge, in the meantime, has opened some of its hotels to business travellers, stranded guests, essential workers and those in quarantine. Still, occupancies remain low and it's hoping that the government doesn't wait until lockdown level 1 before it eases restrictions on the hospitality sector.

More on all those stories to follow, along with results from Value Group, Stenprop, Castleview Property Fund and investment holding company Zarclear.

Finally, on 14 May, in "Iron ore and steel defies Covid-19 macro gloom", Ingham Analytics advised that they could see value in BHP and Kumba for the short-term trader. Since then both stocks have strengthened with Kumba in particular powering ahead, up by 40% to R520 from R371. This is a superb return by any standards in only one month. In the latest Searchlight note on mining and in particular iron ore mining, entitled "Kumba, qaphela!", Ingham Analytics updates investors on the dynamics of the iron ore market and what is driving share prices. The word qaphela gives a clue to their thinking on Kumba. Do you stay? Do you go? Do you invest more?

Ingham Analytics has a new introductory subscription offer which can be found right here. As a subscriber you will automatically gain full access to all the good quality, independent, and reliable research reports from the Ingham Analytics team as soon as they are released.

I hope you have a good week.

Stephen Gunnion

Managing Editor, InceConnect


The latest from Ingham Analytics.

Foreign exchange had a roller coaster week, not least for the rand. The note entitled "What do the currencies say?" was thus timely and is a popular download. Ingham Analytics in the email last Monday also called a sell on Sasol, saying traders should take money away as above R180 per share it was way too rich - sure enough, Sasol sank like a stone."Henry sends a message" has been a popular download this past week. For those invested inProsus, Naspers or Tencent "Illusory value" continues to be a popular download.


Todays Latest Headlines

Barloworld to report a loss due to Covid-19
The industrial group booked higher credit losses and impairments as a result of the global economic slowdown and the pandemic.
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City Lodge secures more debt to help it through the crisis
Some hotels are now operating on a limited basis to accommodate stranded guests, business travellers, essential workers, and those in quarantine.
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Kumba, qaphela!
The word qaphela gives a clue to Ingham Analyitcs's thinking on Kumba. Do you stay? Do you go? Do you invest more.
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Stenprop sees opportunities in Covid-19 environment
The property group says the pandemic may lead to opportunities to buy more properties to meet growing demand for its multi-let industrial estates.
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Value Group resilient in the face of Covid-19
The logistics group says it has become fully operational again and no significant impairments of its assets are currently required.
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Castleview hopes residential uptake will increase footfall
The property fund says its apartments were almost half full by the end of February, bringing more traffic into its shopping centre.
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