Predicting when the next recession will hit has become so popular that betting odds can't be far behind. Nevertheless, there seems to be a vague consensus forming around 2020. JPMorgan is the latest to weigh in, opining that the U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping toward the basement within the next two years. —David E. Rovella

Here are today's top stories

British Prime Minister Theresa May isn't the best salesperson for Brexit as time runs short for a deal with the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel didn't even understand her pitch of a new plan.

Chinese shares extended the world’s deepest slump and the yuan touched its weakest level in almost two years.

Apple heads to Brooklyn this month, where it will take over an opera house to unveil new products likely to include iPads and Mac computers.

Bloomberg Businessweek reports how Saudi Arabia is using a critical tool for damage control at home in the wake of accusations its agents tortured, murdered and dismembered missing U.S. resident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khasshoggi. That tool is repression.

U.S. President Donald Trump's quick acceptance of Saudi denials wasn't echoed by Republicans. The kingdom's bloody war in Yemen and ties to the Sept. 11 attacks haven't helped, and Democrats are insinuating that Trump's personal financial interests are guiding his actions. On Thursday, however, the administration showed signs of changing course.

On this side, children and teens afraid of a world made less habitable by climate change. On the other side, the Trump administration, which asked a now-full Supreme Court to throw out their claims.

What's Lorcan Roche Kelly thinking? The Bloomberg cross asset editor is tired of neverending Brexit talks, but he's fairly certain the EU will wait until the last minute to exert maximum leverage over the U.K.

What you'll need to know tomorrow

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What you'll want to read tonight

Tesla Quietly Fulfills Promises Amid All the Noise

You may have missed it, but Tesla marked a huge milestone last week. According to Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 Tracker, the carmaker's production of the sedan surpassed 100,000. It's the car meant to be an affordable, non-fossil fuel alternative to smoke-belchers. This may be a good time for you to see just where Elon Musk's baby is headed.

Have you started strategizing for 2019? We have. Don’t miss the annual Bloomberg Businessweek special report, The Year Ahead, on the major trends, disruptions, breakthrough products, innovations and movements to watch in the coming year. Get Bloomberg All Access in time to receive this issue in print and much more.

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