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| Monday, October 21, 2024 |
| I just finished recording Week 7 Beyond the Box Score -- a weekly recap show that I do with Adam and Dan on Mondays -- and now it's time to catch you up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, so I created a Google form that you can fill out. You can let me know what topics you'd like to read about, and we'll spend more time discussing them in detail in Friday's newsletter! |
| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Today, we're going beyond the box score. |
| Fantasy football risers following Week 7 |
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| Fantasy risers -- Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle |
| Jennings has been so good in 2024. You can watch his biggest plays right here. Even if his eruption vs. the Rams is simply removed, Jennings still is averaging over 2.00 yards per route run on the year. I found that hard to believe. He's been that good. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Tank Bigsby |
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| Bisgby is someone I am going to look to package in deals to upgrade a position heading into Week 8. |
| Fantasy riser -- Brian Thomas Jr. |
| For the second-straight week, BTJ led the Jaguars in routes run. That's an important development and one that sometimes takes multiple months to occur for rookie receivers. |
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| It's been a wild start for BTJ, and we've seen the offense improve as Trevor Lawrence has become more fixated on his best wideout. This a tendency that Lawrence has displayed in each of the past two seasons, ranking top-five in first-read target rate in each. Lately, Lawrence is getting the ball out quickly and decisively, and better results have followed. |
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| Fantasy riser -- George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and maybe Pat Freiermuth too?! |
| The underlying data for George Pickens suggested that a Year 3 breakout was possible without Diontae Johnson around to hog targets. But would QB play and low passing volume get in the way? That remains a real question that will need answering before buying all the way in on Pickens as a Fantasy WR1, but the first start from Russell Wilson did inspire confidence. |
| The season-long per-route rates from Pickens are crazy. |
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| With Wilson producing a larger pie for everyone to take slices from, we saw Pickens turn his per-route production into actual useful Fantasy counting stats. |
| Another way in which Wilson's impact was felt was in the way that Pittsburgh's opposing defense treated the run game. With Wilson presenting more of a deep passing threat, Najee Harris had a lot more room to run. |
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| It was Harris in Week 7, but big weeks could also be available to Jaylen Warren in the future. He split snaps evenly with Harris for the first time all year. |
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| Fantasy riser -- David Njoku and Cedric Tillman |
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| Tillman's first-read target rate (32%) tied David Njoku for the team-lead. I bring up this additional context, because sometimes high target totals aren't supported by a high first-read rate. Often they are, but not always. Tillman, being the team's WR4 to start the year, struck me as someone who may have had a random one-off game with a high target total. It seems as if his Week 7 usage was largely by design, though. |
| I don't know what to expect at the QB position going forward from Cleveland, so I can't give you a concrete answer as to how highly you might want to prioritize Tillman. This was the best game we've ever seen from Tillman as a pro. He has not been productive in the past, even on a per-route basis. |
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| For now, I'd consider Tillman mostly a Dynasty add and a potential deep-league stash for season-long leagues. |
| Fantasy riser -- Xavier Worthy |
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| The Chiefs have been intentional in getting Worthy more involved over the past two games. The results: 25 and 19 receiving yards. The lack of production is frustrating for anybody invested in Worthy's success, but at least there has been a change to his usage. He's getting more than just deep ball opportunities. |
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| The chemistry between Patrick Mahomes and Worthy is clearly not there at this point. Maybe we see Kansas City continue to try to implement him more, maybe Kansas City makes a trade for a target hog like Diontae Johnson, or maybe the Chiefs simply give up on Worthy as more than a field-stretcher in the 2024 season and leans more on Mecole Hardman as a short-area target. |
| We really have no reason for optimism that Worthy's going to start winning other than his speed and draft capital. His collegiate efficiency did not match his opportunities and was mostly blamed on poor QB play. I have no idea if we can expect him to begin converting his opportunities more efficiently in 2024. Maybe! The chances that he's getting at least leave that possibility open. |
| Fantasy riser -- Khalil Shakir |
| His snaps were limited in Week 6, but Shakir was back to a full role in Week 7. His per-route production on the year has been absolutely nutty, but it's flown a bit under the radar because the Bills have been run-heavy. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
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| We may see this split become more even going forward, but it's also possible that this is representative of what we can expect in games where the Giants fall behind early. Tracy is one of the best playmaking pass-catchers that the offense has. |
| Fantasy riser -- Drake Maye |
| I was really encouraged by Maye's decisiveness, feel for the pocket, and ability to play with anticipation in his second start. Just listen to my guy Dan Schneier gush about Maye's upside! |
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| Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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