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| Monday, October 28, 2024 |
| I am done recording the Week 8 Beyond the Box Score podcast -- a weekly Monday recap show that I do with Adam and Dan -- and now it's time to catch FFT Newsletter readers up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| Beyond the Box Score -- Fantasy football risers following Week 8 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Khalil Shakir |
| Surely, Khalil Shakir's league-high 87% catch rate from 2023 has to drop, right? Regression. Well, so far, Shakir has caught a cool 97% of his 2024 targets. He might just be the best player of all time. |
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| Put him in the hall of fame already. And definitely get him on your Fantasy team. |
| Fantasy risers -- Cleveland Browns pass-game pieces |
| Empowered by the creator of the universe, Jameis Winston elevated the Cleveland Browns offense to heights never seen before in the year 2024. Powerful stuff. It feels unfair for God to side with the Browns, but I'm not here to rule on cosmic justice. I'm here to let you know that we should probably be looking to take full advantage of the circumstances for Fantasy purposes. |
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| Truly, it could not have been much worse than it had been in Cleveland. Maybe the Bears have it worse. It's hard to imagine a worse offensive environment than what the Browns endured through the first seven weeks of the regular season. |
| Beyond the Box Score readers hopefully already had Cedric Tillman locked and loaded before his big Week 8 performance. If you weren't a believer, you are going to have to pay a pretty penny to acquire Tillman at this point. |
| Elijah Moore was actually the pass-catcher who Winston was the most focused on in Week 8. |
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| Like many slot receivers around the NFL, Moore only is playing in three-receiver sets at the moment. I'm not sure how consistent we can expect his production to be on a week-to-week basis, but there's certainly some appeal. Moore's name has popped up sneakily high on some of the underlying separation metrics that I track throughout the year. |
| Fantasy riser -- Nick Chubb |
| Catch some Nick Chubb hype here. He doesn't look like his full self yet, but of course. He does look good enough to maximize on his opportunities, and opportunity may be plentiful if Week 8 was any indication. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Mark Andrews |
| Not only did Andrews find the end zone again, but he was involved as a route runner more than we have seen in quite some time. He's still not out of the woods yet and may revert to a 50% route participation type of player if the Ravens jump out to an early lead, but this is at least an encouraging underlying data point for the veteran tight end. |
| Fantasy riser -- Sam LaPorta |
| I tweeted a cut-up of all of LaPorta's targets prior to Week 8, if you want to check those out. To me, he looks the same. And all of his underlying per-target efficiency is actually better than in 2023. The targets simply have not been there. |
| In the first game without Jameson Williams, LaPorta's first-read target rate shot up. Maybe this will be just a one or two-game blip, or maybe Detroit will continue to rock with LaPorta as a bigger piece of the offense going forward. He has been the more reliable target of the two; in terms of both his ability to stay on the field and his ability to convert his opportunities efficiently. |
| Regardless of what the future holds, it was encouraging to see LaPorta lead the Lions in receiving and become more involved in the first-read target distribution. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Cade Otton |
| A 30% first-read target rate for Otton is pretty, pretty, pretty good. |
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| For reference, here are some other notable TE first-read target rates to compare to Otton's: |
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| I will say, I'm not sure how much yardage upside Otton realistically brings. He's a clear Week 8 winner, but I don't want to get carried away with our expectations. |
| Fantasy risers -- Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. |
| It sure is a fun time to roster Trey McBride in dynasty. What we've seen from the young tight end over the past calendar year is extremely encouraging. |
| I'm also encouraged by what we saw from Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 8. I'm planning to dig into his route tree in more detail on Tuesday. For now, enjoy this cut-up, courtesy of Hayden Winks. |
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| Fantasy risers -- Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy |
| Let's just keep it rolling -- national tight end week, baby. |
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| Perhaps even more exciting than Kansas City's offense centering around Kelce and Worthy was the pass rate over expectation. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Kansas City passed at the third-highest rate relative to expectation based upon the circumstances of each offensive play in Week 8. The Chiefs have often leaned run-heavy in 2024. It's possible that the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins signals a desire to be more pass-game centric as Kansas City approaches the stretch-run. |
| Fantasy riser -- Chris Olave |
| There's upside for a late-season break through for Olave if Derek Carr returns and maintains health. The schedule is quite nice, and I'd expect the Saints offense to funnel through Olave and Alvin Kamara. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jalen Coker |
| If a Saints receiver wasn't repulsive enough of an idea of a Fantasy investment, I'll raise you a Carolina Panthers receiver. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jakobi Meyers |
| You're still here? You're sick!! Okay then! I'll raise you a Las Vegas Raiders receiver! |
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| Still here?! Okay, what if I told you that I was actually encouraged by Jalen McMillan's Week 8? Surely, you have to have better things to do than read what is almost definitely McMillan cope. It could have been a much bigger Fantasy performance for McMillan, though! Was it his own fault? Maybe! It makes sense to me that he probably should have had some sense of awareness to the amount of free space around him on the bullet pass that Baker Mayfield threw behind his unturned head. |
| I'm not sure if it will ever amount to production, but McMillan was again trusted to be an integral part of the offense in Week 8. For the second-straight week, the Bucs designed an end-around run for him. Tampa is being intentional about getting the ball into his hands. It might end up being cool for Fantasy! Maybe he kicks into the slot when Mike Evans returns and puts up some big numbers. Clearly, the potential was there for McMillan to score some Fantasy points in Week 8. We'll see if it ever materializes. |
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| Alright, I'm outta here. Thanks for reading! If you need even more football, check out this Bucky Irving thread. He's easily one of the most-fun running backs in the NFL right now. He may be my favorite RB. He's the first back I want to watch on a weekly basis. Also, note how little fight Atlanta's defense often exhibits in that Bucky cut-up. Strange stuff from a team fighting for first place in the division. I'll be continuing to target Falcons games for Fantasy purposes. |
| And one more also -- if you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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