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| Monday, September 30, 2024 |
| I just finished recording Week 4 Beyond the Box Score -- a weekly recap show that I do with Adam and Dan (he bailed on us this week! So, naturally, I chose today as the day to dig up my 2023 Dan Schneier impression) on Mondays -- and now it's time to catch you up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, so I created a Google form that you can fill out. You can let me know what topics you'd like to read about, and we'll spend more time discussing them in detail in Friday's newsletter! |
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| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Today, we're going beyond the box score. |
| Fantasy football risers following Week 4 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Bucky Irving |
| Through three weeks, Rachaad White was one of just two running backs who had a 100% snap rate when his team was in the red zone. In Week 4, Bucky Irving handled all five of Tampa Bay's RB rush attempts from the red zone. |
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| Irving is coming for that work. In last week's installment of 'In The Lab' (catch those in your email inbox every Friday, if you're unaware), I speculated on whether we might even see Bucky cut into White's receiving role. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Ladd McConkey |
| He just looks so legit out there. He's Sonic the Hedgehog as a mover, and Justin Herbert has locked onto him. McConkey is consistently creating separation and is dope as a yards-after-the-catch accumulator. |
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| Maybe L.A.'s offense won't pass enough for him to matter for Fantasy. Or maybe McConkey is simply too good. Either way, cat's out of the bag at this point for Dynasty purposes. I couldn't have imagined a more exciting initial month of film for McConkey as a first-time pro. |
| Fantasy riser -- Jordan Whittington |
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| Jordan Whittington is basically playing the Wan'Dale Robinson role as a catch-and-run threat for the Rams. I wouldn't overreact to his statistical showing, but Week 4 was clearly a W for his Fantasy value. |
| The Rams play the Green Bay Packers next, so we may see a ton of three-receiver sets while playing from behind once again. |
| Fantasy riser -- Brian Thomas Jr. |
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| Wild stuff. What's even wilder is the fact that the film once again was more impressive than the actual production. You can watch BTJ's Week 4 film in this thread. |
| Fantasy riser -- Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette |
| After the first two weeks, I was feeling a bit silly for getting excited about Carolina's offense. After two more weeks, it's hard not to feel silly for how silly I felt. Everything -- offensive line play, coaching, weapons at the skill positions -- structurally is in place. |
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| All that is needed is competent QB play. Well, Diontae finally got it, and he is making good on his long-awaited opportunity. |
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| Let's add a healthy Jonathan Brooks to the equation and get this thing really poppin'! |
Fantasy riser -- Dontayvion Wicks
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| Wicks had a 90% snap rate following the Christian Watson injury. I wondered if we might see Bo Melton rotate in or Jayden Reed finally get some reps from two-receiver sets. Neither happened. Wick was simply elevated to a full-time role. |
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| Let's see what might happen with a full-time role! |
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| Since the start of 2023 (his rookie season!), Wicks has been among the absolute most electric Fantasy producers at the WR position on a per-opportunity basis. |
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| Green Bay's offense is so fun. If we get word that Watson will miss time, Wicks becomes the top priority waiver wire add that we've had to date during the 2024 season. Unload the clip in that scenario. Talk about cat out of the bag -- Wicks' days as a part-time player may truly be over if he gets even one more week as a full-time receiver. Oh, and yeah, the Rams secondary is who he has on tap as a Week 6 matchup. Jordan Love could carve that defense up for 500 yards if the game is competitive enough to dictate that type of performance. |
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Beyond the Box Score: Team-level information
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| I'm going to create a Twitter thread with a bunch of team-level charts and analysis tomorrow. I am waiting for data from the Monday Night Football games. A lot of the charts that I'll share in this space today are from the first three weeks. Be sure to check my Twitter account for that thread to get a better idea of what is happening from a macro-level view. Four games is such a small sample size when it comes to Fantasy production. I'm much more interested in the underlying information and how it might predict what we can expect over the course of the rest of the 13 remaining games. |
| For instance, the Atlanta Falcons are (again) one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL for Fantasy football purposes. Should we give up on all of these players? Maybe Kyle Pitts, sure. But not all of them. The outcome that we've seen from Atlanta's offense feels near the very bottom of any realistic potential result for this offense. |
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| No team ran fewer plays on offense than the Falcons in Week 4. Atlanta scored two defensive/special teams touchdowns, which immediately puts the ball back in the other team's hands and keeps the Falcons offense sidelined. |
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| Drake London is the Falcon who I am the most excited to buy low on after Week 4. |
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| Generally, we'll want to target the pass-game pieces from teams in the top-right of this chart and avoid ones from the bottom-left. This chart only tells part of the story, though, which is why it's important to also know which offenses can create elite efficiency in this passing game. This chart that I shared earlier in reference to Kubiak is helpful in this regard . Even though the Niners, Packers, and Dolphins lean towards a slow run-heavy approach, those offenses are still capable of producing one or two elite pass-game producers on the weeks where the pass game connects on a handful of explosive plays. |
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| Another piece of the puzzle comes in the form of personnel information. Below, you'll find the percentage of offensive plays each offense ran with three or more receivers on the field. |
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| A high 3+ WR rate = more playing time opportunities |
| A low 3+ WR rate = more efficient routes, generally (less target competition) |
| Below, you'll find the percentage of plays that each team passed the ball compared to the percentage of first downs that each team passed. Ranking below the trendline isn't necessarily a bad thing. Again, if the offense is able to create elite efficiency when passes are drawn up, that can outweigh a lack of overall receiving volume. It's important to understand that offenses that operate that way are skating on thin ice. The margin for error is thin -- if the explosive plays happen to not connect to find form on any given week, the offensive environment likely falls apart. |
| Teams towards the top right of the chart offer the ability to consistently churn out massive target numbers. Bowers leads all tight ends in targets, thanks in part to his offense passing at the highest rate in the NFL. |
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| These rates fluctuate on a week-to-week basis, so I'll update you as we get more data. |
| Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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