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| Monday, October 7, 2024 |
| I just finished recording Week 5 Beyond the Box Score -- a weekly recap show that I do with Adam and Dan on Mondays -- and now it's time to catch you up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, so I created a Google form that you can fill out. You can let me know what topics you'd like to read about, and we'll spend more time discussing them in detail in Friday's newsletter! |
| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Today, we're going beyond the box score. |
| Fantasy football risers following Week 5 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Tank Bigbsy |
| I'm going to begin today's Fantasy risers section by exemplifying a couple of ways in which data can be used facetiously. Do not overreact to this information. As is always the case, it will probably serve you well to remember that context is important. It is up to the beholder to determine the value of any data visualization that they might find. With that said, Tank Bigbsy, clearly, as bourne out in the data, has been the NFL's most-efficient rusher thus far. |
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| In Week 5, we saw Bigsby play more than ever before in an NFL game! |
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| Is he the new starting RB in Jacksonville? That doesn't seem to be the case, but we are seeing him receive more and more opportunities. This train started rolling during the preseason, was slowed temporarily by injury, but is back on track. Bigsby has been highlighted as one of the top RB adds in each of the past two FFT Newsletter waiver wire write-ups, so hopefully you already have him on your bench. I wouldn't necessarily want to break the bank adding him from the waiver wire. This is still a member of the Jags offense that we are talking about. |
| Fantasy riser -- Josh Downs |
| Another Year 2 player who has flashed impressive juice as a ball-carrier is Colts slot WR Josh Downs. With Joe Flacco at QB, Downs has been cookin! He has more Fantasy points than Michael Pittman since returning from a high ankle sprain in Week 3. And on a per-route basis, Downs looks like one of the absolute best receivers in the NFL. |
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| Please do not penalize me for finger guns. So, what does this tweet mean?! Is Josh Downs better than Malik Nabers?! No, I do not think so. Is this information irrelevant? I mean, we're talking about what happened in one game and how it might pertain to our own made-up game called Fantasy football, so yeah, probably. |
| This information is fun! Josh Downs is super fun! To me, at least, it's very cool that Downs has flashed this type of target-earning ability. If you still remember how to have fun, maybe you agree. If you're a super serious Fantasy footballer, then you probably are more focused on the fact that Anthony Richardson is coming back and the pass-game volume will likely shrink with his return. |
| No doubt. We can get serious for a second. With Richardson on the field, Downs still has a 33% target per route run rate (18 routes). That's higher than any other Colts pass-catcher with Richardson at QB in 2024. It's also a tiny sample size. Since the start of 2023, Downs has a 20% target per route run rate and a 0.30 PPR point per route run rate. To my eyes, he's playing much better in 2024. Makes sense! He's a year further into his professional development. |
| For reference, 0.30 PPR points per route run falls in the Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tutu Atwell, and Andrei Iosivas range (since the start of 2023). Xavier Legette is averaging 0.31 PPR points per route in 2024. Downs likely isn't going to be a highly productive or consistent player when Richardson is in the lineup. However, if Richardson ever misses additional time -- or, if Michael Pittman ever misses time -- Downs has flashed the ability to be a difference-maker and a chain-mover for his offense. This has been a remarkably encouraging second season, Dynasty Fantasy players should absolutely take note of what Downs is doing. |
| Fantasy riser -- Tee Higgins |
| Higgins has a 33% and 36% target share over the past two games. His target per route run rate is way up in 2024. He had a 19% TPRR in 2023 and his career-high is 23%. In 2024, his rate is 29%. The Bengals are using Higgins more than ever before on short targets, and he leads the Bengals in first-read target rate in each of the past two games. |
| The set-up could not be much better for the outlook of Joe Burrow and his top two targets. Cincinnati's defense is playing terribly, and so the Bengals might be forced into a pass-heavy gameplan on any given week. Cincy has the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate, so the offense is more than happy to draw up a pass-heavy game plan. And the target distribution is super concentrated on Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Higgins may just be a top-15 Fantasy WR going forward. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Drake London |
| Speaking of players whose situation could not be much better, Drake London appears to be in the Fantasy gods' favor after two years of suffering. The Falcons are playing at the second-fastest pace of any offense, and London is the focal point. New playcaller Zac Robinson has unlocked London's potential, and we are about to see how high he can fly. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Darnell Mooney |
| His per-route production doesn't quite match his teammates, but Mooney is putting up some pretty loony numbers himself. |
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| Fantasy riser -- James Conner |
| Rookie Trey Benson was removed from the equation for the Cardinals in Week 5, and his playing time was essentially exclusively soaked up by Conner. Kyren Williams was the only RB who registered a higher route participation. |
| In terms of pass rate over expectation, Arizona consistently churns out one of the most run-heavy offensive gameplans. Conner is the offensive engine for the Cardinals. He also has been a complete workhorse in the red zone. |
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| Is this finger guns? I can't tell. Am I going to be fined? |
| Editor's note from Dan: Jacob was, in fact, not fined for this comment. |
| Fantasy riser -- Chase Brown |
| The pendulum has been swinging towards Brown more with each passing week, and he finally outright had more rush attempts (12) than Zack Moss (9) in Week 5. His backfield teammate appeared to sprain his ankle but was able to come back into the game. We'll see what happens with Moss. Joe Mixon re-entered the game after spraining his ankle only to miss the next three (and counting) games. Brown may have the backfield to himself in Week 6. |
| And even if Moss suits up, I'd expect Brown to keep getting work. He's earned it. |
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| On the year, Brown ranks top five in rushing EPA per snap and rushing success rate. He's been far more than a big-play merchant. This is a huge development for a player whose inconsistency and propensity for forcing runs to the outside was knocked relentlessly this offseason. (I was certainly no Chase Brown believer, in full transparency. My concern was and remains his ability to play on passing downs.) |
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| A reminder on what qualifies as a successful run: |
First down run -- Gain half of the yardage required
Second down run -- Gain half of the yardage required
Third down run -- Gain a first down
Fourth down run -- Gain a first down |
Beyond the Box Score: Team-level information
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| Part of what goes into creating offensive play volume is pace of play, and Atlanta has ranked near the top all season. |
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| The Falcons also rank top-five in situation-neutral pass rate! I hope this further visualized why Drake London is so exciting for Fantasy purposes. |
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| Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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