Biden Lead Shrinks in Key States | Record Typhoon Strikes Philippines

Don’t look now, but this race is getting tighter. Several polls over the weekend showed narrow Joe Biden leads or had Donald Trump ahead in key states. Democrats are increasingly concerned about Pennsylvania, which is considered the tipping point for the whole race. But Biden still has far more paths to 270 electoral votes, and OZY’s exclusive forecast in partnership with data firm 0ptimus gives Biden an 88 percent chance of victory. Looking for a canary in the coal mine? Keep your eye on Erie County, Pennsylvania, which OZY reports has swung with the winner in seven straight elections.

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post, OZY

2. Warning Signs

Law enforcement officers across the country are preparing for violence and intimidation at the polls, and many businesses are boarding up windows amid growing signs that tensions could spill over from Tuesday’s vote. As caravans of Trump fans showed their pride (and slowed traffic) across the country, one group of motorists earned the president’s tweeted praise and an ongoing investigation from the FBI by surrounding a Biden campaign bus in Texas (the candidate was not on it) and forcing it to a stop on the highway, making the campaign cancel events in Austin. In North Carolina, police fired pepper spray toward a “march to the polls” event, saying demonstrators who stopped to kneel in memory of George Floyd were blocking traffic near an early voting location.

Are you worried about violence after the vote? Take our OZY Twitter poll.

Sources: OZY, NYT, Fox News, Reuters, WRAL

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Super Typhoon Goni, with winds gusting over 190 mph, killed 16 people yesterday and left hundreds of thousands without power. That could make distributing COVID-19 treatments and tests more difficult for the Philippines, which is one of the hardest-hit countries in Southeast Asia with 7,221 virus deaths recorded. Days ago, the nation was hit by deadly Typhoon Molave — which continued on to batter Vietnam, as Goni is now expected to do. Meanwhile, the Philippine weather bureau is already monitoring another oncoming storm, Tropical Storm Atsani, which could make landfall this week.

Sources: CNN, BBC, SCMP

2. Brazilians Protest COVID-19 Vaccinations

Hundreds of people gathered in the streets of São Paulo yesterday to protest their governor’s support of a plan to make vaccination for the coronavirus mandatory. President Jair Bolsonaro has opposed the idea, even as Paulistanos are subject to phase-three trials of an inoculation developed by Chinese company Sinovac. Meanwhile, drone startups are aiming to turn vaccine distribution into a new revenue stream by entering partnerships with drug companies to deliver the shots, which is expected to be an arduous process even after a vaccine is approved for public use.

Sources: Reuters, WSJ (sub)

3. Johnson Seeks Support for Four-Week UK Lockdown

“There is no alternative.” Facing rising COVID-19 deaths and the approach of winter, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a four-week lockdown across England beginning Thursday, though it requires parliamentary approval and he’s facing rebellion within his own party ahead of Wednesday’s vote. Under the new rules, schools will stay open, but religious services and foreign travel are forbidden. With Europe’s worst virus death toll — and Wales and Northern Ireland already in lockdown — the U.K. hit 1 million cases over the weekend. Top ministers warn that depending on the data after four weeks, the lockdown could be extended.

Sources: BBC, AP, Axios

4. Also Important …

Film legend Sean Connery, who died Friday at the age of 90, was suffering from dementia in his final months. Prince William of England reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 in the spring but kept it secret because he “didn’t want to worry anyone.” And the Texas Supreme Court has rejected an effort by conservative activists to toss out almost 127,000 ballots collected curbside because drive-thru voting centers are not specifically mentioned in the state’s election law.

Coronavirus Update: Oil prices hit a five-month low today as virus lockdowns across the world caused a slump in demand.

The leaves are changing, and pumpkin spice lattes are back — so fall is definitely here. Luckily, we found the perfect men’s sweater for the 2020 sweater weather season. Don’t look any further: Outerknown’s Nostalgic Sweater puts a modern twist on the iconic ‘70s style and perfectly combines comfort, style and warmth. The Nostalgic Sweater sold out fast last year, so don’t miss it while it lasts — and use code OKOZY for 20 percent off!

Now he sees the light. Dr. Laeek Khan’s wish was granted when police in India’s Uttar Pradesh state arrested the two men who sold him a fake magic lamp for $93,000, promising that it would bring him good luck. The doctor claims he was taken in by an illusion involving a fake genie, which turned out to be one of the men in a costume, and soon realized that the lamp did not actually grant wishes. Police say other families have been similarly cheated.

Sources: Gulf Today, Al Jazeera

2. How Huawei Plans to Get Around US Sanctions

What can you do when the chips are down? Prevented from accessing U.S. chips by tight sanctions, the embattled Chinese company announced it will for the first time manufacture its own at a planned Shanghai factory. Vowing not to use U.S. technology, Huawei says it’ll start with low-end chips and work up to making the type needed for 5G telecom technology by the end of 2022. The company has been at the forefront of the trade war between China and the U.S., and has been accused of spying for the Chinese government and stealing trade secrets.

Sources: Bloomberg, Gizmodo

3. Johnny Depp Loses Libel Trial Against Tabloid

The 57-year-old star of the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise had sued Britain’s The Sun newspaper for labeling him a “wife beater,” sparking a 16-day trial in which Depp and ex-wife Amber Heard each accused the other of violent behavior during their short marriage. Under English law, Depp can appeal. The ruling could have implications for another lawsuit across the pond: He’s suing Heard for defamation in the U.S. to the tune of $50 million over a Washington Post column she wrote about domestic violence.

Sources: Deadline, Variety, The Guardian

4. The New York City Marathon Lasted Two Weeks

They took the road less traveled. This year’s 50th anniversary marathon event was canceled, but some 28,000 people from around the world signed up to run it virtually. The race has only been canceled once before, for 2012’s Hurricane Sandy. While the runners this year could complete the race any time during a two-week period beginning Oct. 17, a few locals chose to run a variation on the real five-borough New York course, braving traffic to finish the race in Central Park as they would in a normal year.

Sources: NYT, Xinhua