Item one: It may be unpresidential, but Trump has redefined "unpresidential" |
We learned this week, via Jonathan Lemire and some Politico colleagues, that Joe Biden uses salty language about
Donald Trump in private. He’s a "sick fuck" and a "fucking asshole." During his Valley Forge speech commemorating the January 6 insurrection, the president almost let it slip in public: "At his rally, he jokes about an intruder, whipped up by the Big Trump Lie, taking a hammer to Paul Pelosi’s skull. And he thinks that’s funny. He laughed about it. What a sick …" The White House declined to comment for the record, but this was obviously put out there by administration sources just to test the reaction. Well, here’s mine: Biden should just go ahead and say it publicly. It won’t hurt. Most likely it will help. Might help a lot, in fact. This is so for two basic reasons that people in politics sometimes forget about inside their pressure bubbles. The first is that it’s genuine. If it’s what he thinks, then he ought to just own it. People hear politicians calibrate their words every day (well, except Trump, but even he does it sometimes, notably with respect to a federal abortion ban). To hear someone just let it rip is refreshing.
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Reason two? A hell of a lot of people agree. The ones who don’t are loud and enraged, and they command not one but three propaganda television networks (Fox, One America, Newsmax). But I’m betting that your average American—middle class, not very political, guided by conventional morals and values, not angry at either Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce—thinks Donald Trump is a sick fuck. The success of such a play would depend on the evidence Biden would introduce to reinforce the label. It can’t be political. He led an insurrection? No. That’s partisan. He separated children from their parents and kept them in cold barracks with Mylar blankets? That’s plenty bad, but it’s still just politics. The best evidence is above politics. Like Trump’s habit of insulting soldiers. Biden hit the right note in the Valley Forge speech: "[Trump] referred to those heroes, and I quote, as ‘suckers’ and ‘losers.’ He actually said that. How dare he say that. How dare he talk about my son and all like that. Look, I call them patriots and heroes. The only loser I see is Donald Trump." (Biden believes son Beau’s brain cancer, the cause of his death, stemmed from his exposure to burn pits in Iraq during his service.) The Paul Pelosi story is a pretty good piece of evidence too. Yes, the name Pelosi will set off the inevitable bells on both sides. But I doubt many swing voters think it’s OK to joke about taking a hammer to an 82-year-old man’s head. We might throw in what Trump said about John McCain back in 2015 ("I like heroes who weren’t captured"). Trump, as we know, leads Biden narrowly in most polls (and in some state polls, not so narrowly). At the same time, large majorities agree that Trump is a lawless and reckless and just bad human being. Here are some poll results from last summer, which are in line with a ton of other polls. Popularity—unfavorable, 60 to 38 percent. Does Trump think he’s above the law? Yes, 63 to 37. Do you support or oppose Trump’s indictments? Support, 53 to 39. Do you think Trump has committed a crime? Yes, 62 to 32. And the most germane one here, is Trump fit for office? No, 58 to 42. Why, you might ask, is a man with those numbers leading in polls? First of all, because Joe Biden is 80. If Biden were 75, he’d be six, seven points ahead, no question about it. And second, because those average swing voters have forgotten everything they didn’t like about Trump, while they see every day the things they don’t like about Biden—his age, and his inflation (although things are improving considerably on that front). This campaign—and not panicking about January’s head-to-head polls—is going to be an exercise in reminding those voters of the things they hated about Trump. In some ways, Trump will do that work himself. He’s already doing it, defaming a woman he raped, misbehaving in courtrooms, getting convicted of more crimes (we hope), ranting against the legal system, the one venue where his bullshit doesn’t fly. By late October, a lot of people will have observed his campaign-season antics and be asking themselves whether they really want this moral baboon in their faces for another four years. (It occurs to me that’s an insult to baboons.) But a lot of the work will have to be done by Biden and the Democrats. Trump’s lie to the American people about the seriousness of the coronavirus. His serial bragging about getting rid of Roe v. Wade. His love of Vladimir Putin. His increasing dementia, far worse than Biden’s. And his basic sociopathy and inhumanity. If driving that last point home means Biden should use a rather unpresidential noun here and there, well, fuck it.
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Item two: Finally, some daylight between Biden and Israel |
This might prove to have been a pivotal week in … well, I’m sitting here trying to figure out how to complete this sentence, and I’m tempted to say the history of the Middle East, at least potentially. Then again, it might well prove to have been yet another false alarm. Talk had been circulating for days about some kind of grand bargain brewing in the region. Then Thursday, Tom Friedman wrote a column that laid it all out. He is extremely well sourced in the Middle East, and further, it was obvious that Biden administration sources were feeding him things. His headline: "A Biden Doctrine for the Middle East is Forming. And It’s Big." The basic idea is this: A more resolute stand against Iran (retaliation for the deaths of those three U.S. soldiers is supposed to start soon) and its proxies; an "unprecedented initiative" to embrace Palestinian statehood (demilitarized); and a "vastly expanded" security arrangement with Saudi Arabia. This would include Saudi recognition of Israel, which would purportedly move Israel in the direction of negotiating a two-state solution. Lots of what-if’s here. But mainly there are two. First, it’s pretty hard to picture the Netanyahu government agreeing to all this, so it would seem to be predicated on a new government taking shape in Israel. No one yet knows exactly how that’s going to happen. Second, of course, is where Hamas figures in all this. Friedman writes that this Palestinian state would be led by the Palestinian Authority, meaning Hamas would be iced out. Not sure that’s possible. The Saudis don’t have much leverage over Hamas. But Qatar does. And Qatar has endless money too. If all this ever comes to pass, Qatar will be key. Then also on Thursday, the Biden administration announced its executive order imposing sanctions on West Bank settlers who commit violence against Palestinians. It will block such settlers from accessing money or assets in the United States or sending money here. It applies now to four specific settlers but could be very broadly applied. It mirrors a similar U.S. order pertaining to people designated as terrorists. In other words, it applies the same rules to violent settlers as to terrorists. This is a big deal. The first crack of real daylight between the Biden administration and Israel. Too late for a lot of people, I’m sure. But still, the first actual action—not just tougher talk—that Biden has imposed on Israel since it started killing thousands of Gaza civilians after the savage Hamas October attack. I asked above how to get the Netanyahu government out of there? This kind of move is an example. Make Israelis see that sticking with Bibi exacts too high a price. A next step could be the United States not using its U.N. veto to protect Israel, as it routinely does. If there were real progress on all these fronts over the spring and summer … sure, it would be good for Biden’s reelection prospects. But it would be good for the world. And pretty amazing if the "doddering" old man pulled this off. Again, it’s all pretty hypothetical right now. But sometimes this is how history works. Maybe October 7 and its aftermath will prove to be the events that finally convince enough people that the status quo simply can’t continue.
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Item three: A quick word about the jobs numbers |
Expectations based on the early ADP payroll numbers were for a sluggish month, with around 150,000 jobs added. The official number released Friday morning? The economy added 353,000 jobs in January, and unemployment remained at 3.7 percent—that’s two straight years of under 4 percent unemployment. The previous two months were also revised upward. Why all the good news? I’m no economist, and there are a lot of reasons. But here’s one theory. Typically, after a downturn such as we had during the pandemic, the medicine that economists administer is austerity: Things are bad; we’d better tighten our belts. This time, we did the opposite: Things were so bad that pretty much everyone agreed that the federal government had to spend, to pump money into a crippled economy. Well … did it work? Sure looks like it. If so, this turns about 35 years of conventional wisdom on its head. Maybe the way out of a downturn isn’t cutting. Maybe the way out of a downturn is investing. It may take mainstream economics a decade to embrace this idea. But it’s something to watch all right.
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Last week’s quiz: Hello, Margot? Oscar not calling! In recognition of the shocking Oscar snubs of Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig, a quiz about, uh, surprising Oscar choices in the past.
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1. One of the worst Best Picture winners ever was Cecil B. DeMille’s The Greatest Show on Earth, in 1952. Which true screen classic did it beat out?
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A. On the Waterfront B. An American in Paris C. High Noon D. Roman Holiday
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Answer: C, High Noon. Paris won in 1951, and Waterfront in ’54. Holiday was nominated in ’53. I tried watching Show once. Tedious.
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2. The year 1976 brought another surprise Best Picture–winner selection—the winner is a good movie, for sure, but whether it was really that year’s best is a very fair question. Which picture defeated such classics as Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President’s Men?
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A. Carrie B. Rocky C. Annie Hall D. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
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Answer: B, Rocky. Like I said, a good movie, but the fourth best of those four.
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3. Which of these legendary directors never won an Oscar?
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A. Alfred Hitchcock B. William Wyler C. Milos Forman D. Joel and Ethan Coen
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Answer: A, Hitchcock. Nominated five times. The Susan Lucci of the Oscars. OK, not quite.
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4. Which of these celebrated actresses never won an Oscar?
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A. Faye Dunaway B. Judy Garland C. Olivia de Havilland D. Julianne Moore
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Answer: B, Judy Garland. Can you believe it?
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5. Another, more recent Best Picture shocker came in 2006, when Crash defeated which universally acclaimed film that was also nominated and was the heavy favorite?
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A. Brokeback Mountain B. No Country for Old Men C. Pan’s Labyrinth D. Slumdog Millionaire
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Answer: A, Brokeback. Pan’s, the best of the lot, won Best Foreign Film that year.
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6. Margot Robbie was also denied a nomination in 2017 for an arguably greater performance as which real-life figure?
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A. Martina Navratilova B. Harper Lee C. Janis Joplin D. Tonya Harding
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Answer: D, Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. I must say Robbie, about whom I hadn’t read much until this year, is really an impressive talent.
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This week’s quiz: I hear a symphony. A quiz on the history of famous American symphony orchestras and conductors, because back in the day, these were really prominent organizations and highly celebrated people, and the average Life magazine reader would have aced this quiz.
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1. Going back to the 1950s, a quintet of leading orchestras was known as the "Big Five." Which city’s symphony was not part of the Big Five?
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A. Philadelphia B. Washington, D.C. C. Cleveland D. Boston
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2. What midcentury conductor famously held the baton to conduct the score for Walt Disney’s Fantasia, at one point during the film accepting a certain mouse’s congratulations, responding, "Heh, heh, congratulations to you, Mickey"?
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A. Leopold Stokowski B. Arturo Toscanini C. Thomas Beecham D. Otto Klemperer
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3. Chicago and Cleveland’s symphonies, in their heydays, were both conducted by famous Georges (though they spelled the name differently, and they only briefly overlapped). Which George/Georg, Solti or Szell, conducted which orchestra?
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4. With what symphony was Michael Tilson Thomas’s first gig as musical director?
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A. Miami B. Minneapolis C. Nashville D. Buffalo
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5. What woman became the first musical director of a major American orchestra, in Baltimore in 2007?
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A. Nancy D’Alesandro B. Lydia Tár C. Marin Alsop D. Wendy Melvoin
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6. In a long scene toward the end of Maestro, Bradley Cooper, as Leonard Bernstein, is seen conducting the Second Symphony of this composer—a favorite of Bernstein’s, who conducted one of his works to mark the assassination of President Kennedy, and another after the Six-Day War.
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A. Maurice Ravel B. Felix Mendelssohn C. Benjamin Britten D. Gustav Mahler
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I loved that scene. You can read great interviews, if you’re interested, with the actual real-life composer who taught Cooper how to conduct. Answers next week. Feedback to fightingwords@tnr.com. —Michael Tomasky, editor
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