Big Picture "Repricing" Goes Global

In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some many investors were on Friday. Japan, in particular, had a rough night with the Nikkei down 12.4%. European indices were down 2-4% and S&P futures fell into the same range. Even crypto was swooning with BTC losing nearly 20% since Friday. All that money needed a place to go and the bond market soaked up quite a bit of it. 10yr yields were as low as 3.666% at one point and Fed Funds Futures showed a 50bp cut in September. The gains began to unravel even before the ISM data came out, but the data kicked the sell-off into higher gear, ultimately completely erasing the overnight progress in both ends of the curve. That said, most of the post-NFP gains are intact, and we're still hugely improved over the levels seen before last week's Fed announcement.

August 5, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Big Picture "Repricing" Goes Global In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some many investors were on Friday. Japan, in particular, had a rough night with the Nikkei down 1... (read more) Rob Chrisman Commercial Loan, Verification, POS, Payment Processing Tools; Events and Training; EPO Penalties? This morning I head to Orange County, which has the same population as Arkansas or Nevada, for the CAMP conference where the economy will be discussed. The stock market is not the economy. Lower mortgage rates? Splendid. Critics would say, “No invent... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.34% -0.06% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.35 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.61% -0.07 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.95% -0.30 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.79% -0.33 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/5 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.88% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.00% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% +0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.02 0.38 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.72 -0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.72 -0.16 UMBS 6.0 101.74 -0.15 GNMA 5.5 100.69 -0.18 GNMA 6.0 101.27 -0.14 Pricing as of: 8/5 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7865 -0.0025 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.907 +0.025 5 YR Treasury 3.632 +0.016 7 YR Treasury 3.679 +0.011 10 YR Treasury 3.787 -0.003 30 YR Treasury 4.074 -0.032 Pricing as of: 8/5 5:31PM EST Latest Video Mortgage rates fall fast to lowest level since May 2023 The yield curve turning positive will help spur commercial & mortgage activ... An inter-meeting Fed cut would be a mistake, says Solus' Dan Greenhaus Japanese market plunge driven by position unwinding around yen trade, says ... Around the Web Marketwatch How an emergency Fed rate cut to restore market confidence might backfire Marketwatch The Sahm Rule, carry trades and recession fear are more than the market can bear Marketwatch U.S. economy still growing steadily, ISM finds, despite fresh worries over recession Calculated Risk Blog ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas CNBC Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will 'fix it' CNBC Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold Calculated Risk Blog Housing August 5th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 39.9% Year-over-year CNBC Here are all the reasons why Monday's major market wreck is happening Eye on Housing Residential Building Wages See Fastest Growth in More Than Five Years Calculated Risk Blog Heavy Truck Sales Increased in July Calculated Risk Blog Fed Q2 SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards and Weaker Demand for almost All Loan Types CNBC The Fed is trying to 'fight a ghost' as recession fears mount, investor says CNBC Investors are unwinding the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen, SocGen strategist says

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