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TODAY:Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) $6,987 (-2%) | Ether (ETH) $177 (-1.93%) Analysts say the growing number of small bitcoin accounts might suggest bitcoin is becoming more popular – even as a sentiment index is registering "extreme fear" for the longest period on record. News and analysis: Singapore gifts crypto holders good tax news, and the blockchain startup vying to compete wih Visa.
MARKET MOVES
Bitcoiners are abuzz over new data showing that more people might be tiptoeing into the market. Mass adoption has long been one of the main bullish investment theses for bitcoin. The bet is that growing numbers of institutions and individuals will eventually come to understand the cryptocurrency's virtues, from its potential use as a peer-to-peer payment system to its potential as a hedge against inflation, like a digital version of gold. As the newbies pile in, prices will soar, the theory goes. Brian Armstrong, CEO of the major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, tweeted last week that the frequency of deposits in the amount of $1,200 had jumped – a hint that some recipients of coronavirus relief checks from the U.S. government might even be using the funds to buy cryptocurrencies. The following chart from CoinDesk Research (using data from Coin Metrics) also shows a surge in addresses holding less than a billionth of the total supply of bitcoin, or those holding roughly $130 or less at current price levels. Source: CoinDesk Research Speculation that bitcoin's popularity might be growing comes as traders await the next big catalyst in the market, which for three weeks now has been stuck in a range between roughly $6,400 and $7,400. It's been a remarkably stable stretch, given how wildly the market was swinging earlier in the year. Prices surged 30 percent in January, its best start to a year since 2013; they collapsed in mid-March amid a coronavirus-fueled sell-off across all financial markets; they then recovered rapidly as governments and central banks around the world announced trillions of dollars of emergency aid and loans. After all that, the price is now at $7,160 – roughly where it started 2020. Source: TradingView.
Any increase in bitcoin's popularity among retail investors might dovetail with signals that institutional investors are getting into the market, too. Renaissance Technologies, one of the world's biggest hedge funds with $166 billion under management, said in a regulatory filing that its market-beating Medallion fund can now trade bitcoin futures on CME Group's Chicago Mercantile Exchange. And last week, cryptocurrency-focused investment firm Grayscale said it raised $503.7 million in the first quarter, nearly double the previous quarterly high. The firm, which is controlled by Digital Currency Group, CoinDesk's parent company, said in a public report that "despite the risk asset drawdown this quarter," investors are "increasing their digital-asset exposure." Mike Alfred, CEO of cryptocurrency analytics firm Digital Assets Data, told CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole last week that the unprecedented money injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have "pushed many people toward bitcoin as an alternative monetary system." "We are hearing and seeing increased retail interest," he said. Zac Prince, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency lender BlockFi, noted in a tweet last week that the industry is "still early in our adoption cycle within just our first addressable market of crypto investors, estimated to be low single digit millions just in the U.S." In an April 16 report, Arcane Research, a Norwegian cryptocurrency analysis firm, wrote that the number of addresses holding more than 0.01 bitcoin (about $72 at current prices) has climbed by about 5 percent just since March 1, to a new record of 8.3 million. Arcane, which cited the data provider Glassnode, wrote that the trend might be due to big bitcoin investors – known as "whales" in crypto-speak – using so-called mixing services to move their digital assets, essentially splitting their holdings into multiple, smaller accounts. But it might also be a "sign of increased user adoption of bitcoin," the researchers wrote. Source: Arcane Research, Glassnode. Ki Young Ju, CEO of the Korean cryptocurrency-analytics firm CryptoQuant, noted in a Telegram message that the number of unspent transaction outputs recorded on the bitcoin blockchain, known as UTXOs, has also increased. That could represent a "small-scale wallets including personal wallets (mass adoption) and mixing activities," he wrote. Source: CryptoQuant. What's interesting is that Alternative.me's closely-tracked "Fear & Greed Index" has been pointing to "extreme fear" since March 9, a five-week period that's now the longest since the gauge launched in February 2018, according to Arcane. So if that's the backdrop for greater mass adoption of cryptocurrencies, bitcoiners are eager to see how cryptocurrency markets react when the gauge turns toward greed – or even extreme greed. Source: Arcane Research, Alternative.me – Bradley Keoun, Senior Markets Reporter
TWEET OF THE DAY
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BITCOIN WATCH
BTC: Price: $6,987 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $7,221 | 24-Hr Low: $7,041 Trend: Bitcoin appears on track to test the psychological hurdle of $8,000, having found acceptance above key hurdle last week. "$8,000 test is getting more likely now," tweeted popular trader @CryptoCapo_. The bullish view could be attributed with a recent breakout on the weekly chart. The cryptocurrency closed last week (UTC) above the horizontal 100-week average resistance, which had consistently capped upside in the preceding four weeks. The breakout, coupled with a bullish higher-lows and higher-highs setup on the daily chart, suggest scope for an extension of the ongoing rally from the March low of $3,856. Exchange activity, too, supports further gains in the short-term. For instance, the seven-day moving average of bitcoin balances on cryptocurrency exchanges has declined 2,398,881 on Sunday, according to Glassnode data, likely signaling a shift to holding strategies. Investors usually withdraw coins from the exchanges to hold in their personal wallets when prices are expected to rise. While the path of least resistance appears to be on the higher side, the possibility of a sudden move lower cannot be ruled out, as some observers believe selling pressure from miners is currently high and could increase further in the coming months as the top cryptocurrency is set to undergo its mining reward halving, a 50 percent reduction in block rewards, next month. "We expect the miners to follow a cycle of decreased profit margins, increased selling, capitulation, and a culling of the least efficient miners from the network," crypto asset analytics company Coin Metrics, stated in its recent “State of the Network” report. Further, the weekly Money Flow index, which incorporates both price and volume, is signaling a bearish mood in the market. "Either way, I'll be shorting the rally to $8,000," said trader @CryptoCapo_. – Omkar Godbole, Market Analyst
COINDESK BITCOIN HALVING WEBINAR
Join CoinDesk’s Noelle Acheson and Christine Kim for a chat about the upcoming bitcoin halving. They’ll talk about their recent report which explains what it is, why it matters and what its impact on the sector and the bitcoin price could be. We attempt to reconcile the various models and theses around the potential bitcoin price reaction as the adjustment approaches, and look at metrics that will shed light on the technological impact.
WHAT'S HOT?
Singapore Won’t Tax Airdrops or Hard Forks Under New Crypto Guidance (CoinDesk)Singapore’s tax authority will not take a cut of airdropped or forked cryptocurrency, so long as the recipient gets the digital assets for free, according to an income tax treatment guide published Friday. New Startup Aims to Prove Blockchain Is Fast Enough for Finance (Bloomberg)According to Bloomberg, a main limitation blockchain faces is that it is "deadly slow" compared to centralized payment systems run by Visa and Mastercard. Ava, a new project from computer scientist Emin Gun Sirer aims to change that. The Changing World Order (Online series by Ray Dalio)A new study on the rises and declines of past leading empires that puts today’s economic, political and policy situation into perspective. Written by hedge fund manager and philanthropist, Ray Dalio. Cryptocurrency in the Time of Crisis: What to Expect (Hackernoon)The coronavirus pandemic has changed our daily lives. But a lot of people are also wondering about the stock market and if they should invest in cryptocurrencies amid the global downturn. Tech writer Elaine Bennet argues digital assets could be a good way to diversify your portfolio. CoinDesk Live: Lockdown Edition continues its popular twice-weekly chats with Consensus speakers via Zoom and Twitter. Here you'll get a preview of what’s to come in Consensus: Distributed, our first fully virtual - and fully free - big-tent conference May 11-15. On the show, we'll chat with developers from the most exciting crypto projects, unpack the basics - and not so basics - of the industry and hear from entrepreneurs disrupting traditional industries. Then we’ll open the floor for you to ask questions directly to our guests. Register to join our second session Tuesday, April 21, with Foundations speakers Priyanka Desai and Aaron Wright from The Lao to discuss for-profit DAOs.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
