We're excited to announce our new format "Crypto Daybook Americas" will replace "First Mover" on Feb. 24. "Crypto Daybook Americas" is your new morning briefing on what happened in crypto markets overnight to equip you with what you'll need to know about during the coming day. It will arrive in your inbox at 7 a.m. ET to kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights and analysis. If you want a preview, "Crypto Daybook Americas" is already being published on the CoinDesk website, so hop over and take a look. You don't need to do anything to sign up, you'll start receiving "Crypto Daybook Americas" automatically when it starts coming out.

CoinDesk 20 Index: 3,178.54 -2.74%
Bitcoin (BTC): $96,029.62 -1.97%
Ether (ETH): $2,619.27 -2.84%
S&P 500: 6,068.5 +0.03%
Gold: $2,908.1 -0.15%
Nikkei 225: 38,963.7 +0.42%

Bitcoin awaits U.S. inflation data at $96,000 as crypto market participants search for direction. A Tuesday rebound was short-lived, and BTC sold off to as low as $95,000 from $98,000 during U.S. trading hours. The slide was arrested, and prices stabilised with BTC down 1.6% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum's ETH, Cardano's ADA and Solana's SOL were 2%-3% lower, with all the members of the broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index in the red. "Boringggg! That's how markets have been for the past two weeks," QCP analysts said in a morning note. "Despite the back-and-forth tariff action between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—along with the imposition of tariffs on China and U.S. steel and aluminum imports—traditional finance (TradFi) markets have been unable to find a clear direction." The CPI inflation report, due at 8:30 ET, is a key catalyst. A lower-than-expected reading could tank the dollar, buoying crypto prices, QCP analysts added.

Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Indicator flipped to negative for the first time since August. The indicator shows the difference between BTC prices on Coinbase, a key marketplace for U.S.-based investors and institutions, and offshore exchange giant Binance. The negative reading suggests U.S. investors are taking a cautious stance ahead of today's inflation report, a stark contrast to the soaring premiums during previous rallies.

World Liberty Financial, the DeFi project backed by the Trump family, is starting a token reserve for investments. The reserve called "Macro Strategy" will aim to boost the ecosystem, with a focus on DeFi, the team posted on X. The announcement follows co-founder Chase Herro's hint at the plan last week, talking about creating a "strategic reserve" for crypto investments at the Ondo Summit in New York. The firm has already accumulated various tokens over the past months, including TRON's TRX, wrapped bitcoin (wBTC), ether (ETH) and staked ETH, as well as MOVE and ONDO tokens, blockchain data showed.

A soft U.S. inflation report later Wednesday will probably bode well for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). Those expecting bullish fireworks may be disappointed.

Lower-than-expected data, particularly the core figure, is likely to bolster expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, which could lead to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, ultimately boosting demand for riskier assets. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates a 54% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates no more than once this year.

While a potential adjustment in Fed rate cuts expectations could lift BTC, it is unlikely to be the sole catalyst for a breakout from the current consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000.

This is due to forward-looking market metrics indicating higher inflation in the coming months amid trade war concerns, suggesting that the Fed may have a limited window to implement aggressive rate cuts.

- Krisztian Sandor