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| The latest moves in crypto markets, in context By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets September 14, 2021 Sponsored by Bitcoin (BTC) +3.0% $46,034 Ether (ETH) +3.4% $3,343 (Price data as of September 14 @ 11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Bitcoin Bounces to 200-Day Moving Average Ahead of US CPI Data as China’s Evergrande Warns of Default Technician's Take: Bitcoin Stabilizes; Faces Resistance at $48K-$50K
And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee and me at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today's show will feature guests: Jeremy Allaire, Circle Brian Brooks, ex-Binance.US, ex-OCC Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Network– Lawrence Lewitinn
Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:
Gainers: Aave (AAVE): +9.2% Polkadot (DOT): +8.0%Uniswap (UNI): +6.8% Polygon (MATIC): +4.9%Losers: None of the assets in the CoinDesk 20 is down over the past 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges.
A message from ByBit $600 Welcome Rewards
Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Bounces to 200-Day Moving Average Ahead of US CPI Data as China’s Evergrande Warns of Default Bitcoin has bounced to a key resistance level, dismissing weakness in stocks and the financial woes of property giant China Evergrande. The relief, however, could be short-lived if U.S. inflation continued to run hot in August. Bitcoin prices, Sept. 13 - 14, 2021 (Source: CoinDesk) According to FXStreet, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to have risen by 5.3% year-on-year last month following July’s 5.4% rise. The data is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.
“If inflation comes in above forecast, it will reaffirm investor views that the Federal Reserve will need to think more about price stability,” Joel Kruger, a currency strategist at LMAX Digital, said. “This will likely weigh on risk assets, which could ripple into short-term negative sentiment towards bitcoin.”
As discussed Monday, an above-5% inflation figure may speed up the Fed’s plans to begin unwinding the long-running liquidity-booting stimulus program by the year-end. That could weigh on asset prices in general.
As of now, bitcoin doesn’t seem worried about the possibility of the U.S. CPI boosting the odds of the so-called Fed taper. The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading above the 200-day moving average (MA) resistance at $45,866, a 1.7% gain on the day.
Stocks, however, are trading weak on caution ahead of the release. Major European indices are nursing moderate losses alongside flat-to-negative action in the S&P 500 futures.
Evergrande’s Crisis
Mainland Chinese stocks tanked early today along with those in Hong Kong, as shares in property developer China Evergrande fell 10% after the company signaled a possibility of a “significant continuing decline in contract sales in September.”
Bitcoin remains unnerved by the growing risk of an Evergrande default despite the lingering speculation that Tether was securing its stablecoin tether, or USDT, with commercial paper issued by the real estate company. Tether – with a market value of $68 billion, the largest stablecoin – has penetrated every corner of the crypto market. As such, a loss of confidence in tether could deliver a severe liquidity shock to the broader market.
“With almost $850 million of loan repayments left in 2021 and the company in a downward spiral, the questions surrounding Tether and Evergrande may be about to be answered,” Coinbase Institutional said in a weekly email dated Sept. 10.
According to Adam Cochran, a partner with Cinneamhain Venture, an Evergrande collapse could send shockwaves around the world. “Regardless of what commercial paper you hold, bonds and commercial paper would take a hit and some issuers may even fold,” Cochran said in a tweet thread published early today. “Currently both Tether and Circle [the company behind stablecoin USDC] hold commercial paper, and while I think it unlikely that either would have large swaths of Evergrande bonds, the whole market will reel a bit.”
Matthew Dibb, co-founder and COO of Stack Funds, voiced similar concerns, saying “Asian equities look miserable and we are worried about contagion of risk-off flowing to crypto.”
Mid-week bounce?
Bitcoin may establish a secure foothold above the 200-day moving average if the U.S. inflation figure misses estimates by a big margin, forcing traders to scale back taper expectations. That would expose the recent peak near $53,000.
“We expect an oversold bounce mid-week when a counter-trend signal is likely per the DeMARK Indicators, and it would likely dispel the overbought downturn on the weekly chart,” Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies said in a weekly note published Monday.
The cryptocurrency fell by 11% a week ago and has been trading between $43,000 to $47,500 ever since. Prices fell by more than 2% on Monday as U.S. stocks dropped on fear of potential corporate tax hikes. In prepared testimony to the Senate published Monday in advance of his Senate appearance today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said the agency doesn’t “have enough investor protection in crypto finance, issuance, trading or lending,” and that it is comparable to the Wild West. Read the original story here:
Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Stabilizes; Faces Resistance at $48K-$50K Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate above the $42,000 support level as short-term momentum improves. The cryptocurrency was trading around $45,900 at press time, which is near the 200-day moving average, and is up about 2% over the past 24 hours.
Buyers are returning, although upside appears to be limited towards $48,000 to $50,000 resistance over the short-term. Bitcoin four-hour chart. (TradingView, CoinDesk) The relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart is rising from oversold levels last week and is not yet overbought. This could encourage a brief price bounce.Bitcoin remains below the 100-period moving average on the four-hour chart, which was rejected during the sell-off last week. BTC will likely consolidate around the current support zone, albeit vulnerable to higher volatility.
Read the original story here: Bitcoin Stabilizes; Faces Resistance at $48K-$50K
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BOLO Be on the lookout for the following events today: ALL DAY: SALT Conference (Sept. 13 - 15) in New York. Speakers include: Jeremy Allaire, Circle Zac Prince, BlockFi Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX Michael Casey, CoinDesk Steve Cohen, Point72 Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates Sarah Kunst, Cleo Capital Marc Lasry, Avenue Capital Peter McCormack, What Bitcoin Did
ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:
Live From the SALT Conference 2021, Anthony Scaramucci Shares His Crypto Ambition This is a "First Mover" special edition with Christine Lee anchoring live from the SALT Conference 2021. SALT Conference and SkyBridge Capital Founder Anthony Scaramucci shares this year's conference highlights and why digital asset firms are important to be included. Looking into the crypto markets, Osprey Funds Founder & CEO Greg King analyzes the fast-moving Solana token as his firm launches the Osprey Solana Fund, the first of its kind in the US. Plus, Christie's Head of Digital Art & Online Sales, Noah Davis, gives his in-depth analysis on why NFTs are the best performing asset class in crypto this year.
A Message from CoinDesk Our Bitcoin for Advisors 2021 event is now fully virtual. Join from anywhere on Oct. 6 to connect with over 300 investment advisors and learn how bitcoin, ethereum and other digital assets can successfully impact your clients’ portfolios. Apply today.
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
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