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Amid the price decline of bitcoin from $10,000 at the start of September to around $8,000 today, investors are looking at the stock market and asking themselves, is bitcoin really the better investment?
The answer: Yes.
In plain English, this means that the investor who has held just a little bit of bitcoin (the “Baby Believer”) or just a little more of the top three altcoins (“Big Believers”) has significantly outperformed the stock market: |
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The Non-Believers (stocks and bonds only) are earning 3.22%. Here’s a funny coincidence: the average U.S. long-term inflation rate is 3.22%, which means the Non-Believers are just keeping up with inflation. Traditional investors are not making any money.
Enter bitcoin. It’s the only thing that’s saving savvy investors: even Ethereum and Ripple are down from last year. A modest amount of bitcoin in an investor’s portfolio -- between 2 and 10 percent -- has outrun inflation, and outperformed the stock market.
Why is Bitcoin Outperforming the Stock Market?
Early on, I had a hypothesis: as the stock market went down, we’d see the price of bitcoin go up (and vice versa). As investors fled the market, in other words, they would flock to alternative investments like gold and bitcoin.
Here are charts showing the stock market, and the price of bitcoin, over the past year. Use your pattern recognition to see if you can spot any correlation: |
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Price of one “share” of the entire stock market (source: Yahoo Finance). |
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It’s hard to see much correlation between the two. So I’m revising this hypothesis to simply state that bitcoin is its own thing. It marches to its own beat.
The bigger question is, why hasn’t the stock market moved over the past year?
Two words: political turmoil.
Let’s imagine you’re the leader of a U.S. company with factories in China, and you’re thinking of moving them to Mexico. You’d think, “But I don’t know what the U.S. policy will be toward either China or Mexico in the future, or even who will be in office. So why invest in the future? Let’s wait and see.”
Wait and see. Like the awkward teenager who never gets up the courage to ask out a crush, the opportunities slip by. No risk, but no reward. No challenges, but no growth. All this political uncertainty breeds business uncertainty, and the stock market just manages to keep up with inflation.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is full of risk -- but with increased risk often comes increased reward. And by risking just a little bit of their overall portfolio, investors have been able to claim outsized rewards.
Once again, the Blockchain Believer strategy:
- Set aside $100 each month into your portfolio (preferably on auto-withdrawal).
- Invest it mostly into stocks and bonds, with a small percentage into blockchain investments (read more).
- Rebalance twice a year (January 1st and July 4th).
In times of uncertainty, one thing is certain: there are always opportunities.
Health, wealth, and happiness, |
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John Hargrave Publisher Bitcoin Market Journal |
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Bitcoin trading requires tools if you want to be effective and successful. These tools run the gamut from charting software to trading algorithms and trading bots and even to portfolio management. Because everyone is different, traders are all different too. And we all have our favorites, whether you're talking trading stocks or bitcoin. That had us wondering which bitcoin trading tools might be the most popular among our readers, which brings us to this week's poll question.
What is your favorite bitcoin trading tool?
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