Saturday, 16 December 2023 — Melbourne, Australia

By Murray Dawes Editor, Fat Tail Daily

[1 min read]

Last week I showed you a bunch of property and infrastructure stocks that I thought could see better days ahead.

Those stocks were up an average of 4.25% over the past week after the US Fed’s dovish pivot.

At the end of last month I pointed out that US bonds, S&P 500, copper, and gold had all confirmed monthly buy pivots while the US Dollar had confirmed a monthly sell pivot.

I don’t often see so many markets agreeing with each other in unison, so the strength of the signals was compounded in my view.

I have also been pointing out that when an interest rate cycle peaks, the reversal can be swift — with rates falling faster than most expect.

US 10-year bond yields have dropped over 1% in the past two months with further falls likely as inflation continues to wane.

For now, stocks are loving it and the Santa rally is in full swing.

Small caps have been underperforming large caps by a large margin over the last year, but that may change as interest rates fall and animal spirits return.

So there is plenty to think about as we head towards the end of the year and contemplate what may be in store for us in 2024.

Click on the picture above to watch today’s instalment of Closing Bell and don’t forget to ‘like’ my video on YouTube if you want to fill me with Christmas spirit.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio managers. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors to make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer term focussed service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).

By Nick Hubble Editor, Fat Tail Daily

[2 min read]

Dear Reader,

The attempt to reach Net Zero has already left our energy systems in chaos.

It undermined our domestic gas and oil industry.

It drove Europe to dependence on Russian gas.

It drove out our domestic mining industry.

It crushed investment in new oil, gas and mining projects around the world.

It shut down the power stations, producing the electricity we need while simultaneously creating spikes in energy demand to fuel EVs and heat pumps.

It created intermittency problems and the need for an impossibly large energy storage solution.

It requires an impossible investment in a new grid to move the electricity from where it’s generated to where it’s needed.

Backup fossil fuel grids are kept on standby to rescue us from a lack of wind and sun, creating huge costs to provide reliable power.

The result is an imminent energy shortage and failing energy system on a grand scale.

Various forms of demand management are already in place, requesting people use less energy when supply comes up short.

The big question now is what happens next?

Do we return to fossil fuels to rescue the energy system?

Do we cut our economy and living standards down to size to limit energy demand?

Such were the topics of discussion in a recent interview I did with fellow Fat Tail Daily editor James Cooper for my Strategic Intelligence Australia subscribers recently.

James is also the editor of our own Diggers and Drillers and Mining: Phase One, and so is the perfect man to take us through the options of what happens next and how to benefit from them.

It was an enlightening conversation that I thought Fat Tail Daily subscribers would get a lot out of, so I’ve shared a snippet of it below.

Enjoy…

Kind Regards,

Nick Hubble,
Editor, Strategic Intelligence Australia

Nick Hubble found us at Fat Tail Investment Research in 2010 after a stint inside Wall Street’s most notorious bank, Goldman Sachs during the 2008 GFC. That’s where he saw the tur nature of the investment banking business. Since then he’s been the editor of the Daily Reckoning Australia and the UK-based Fortune & Freedom and Gold Stock Fortunes.

He’s delighted to work as Investment Director and Editor for Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence Australia. Here he helps turn Jim’s big-picture views into specific actionable advice and ideas for Australian investors.