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| Friday, October 20, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| The NFL might want to think about letting the Jaguars and Saints play every Thursday, because they just gave us one of the most exciting Thursday games of the year Thursday night. The Jaguars were able to escape New Orleans with a 31-24 win, which improves them to 5-2 on the season. |
| If you're now trying to remember the last time the Jags started 5-2, I would just give up on that now. It was so long ago that it will break your brain trying to figure it out. In today's newsletter, we'll be handing out grades for last night's game, plus we'll be making some picks and bold predictions for Week 7. Also, we'll reveal the last time the Jags started 5-2 so you don't have to go Google it. As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 7 |
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| If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then just when you think we're done making picks, we make more picks. |
| For today's show, Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson along with R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the four of them offered some of their best bets for Week 7. |
| The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here: |
Will Brinson (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 10-7-1 on the season)
Lions (+3) to cover against Ravens
Bills (-8.5) to cover against Patriots
Buccaneers (-2.5) to cover against Falcons |
R.J. White (1-2 in picks we shared here last week, 6-12 on the season)
Colts (+3) to cover against Browns
Seahawks (-7.5) to cover against Cardinals
Packers moneyline to beat Broncos (-115) |
Katie Mox (1-2 in picks we shared here last week, 8-10 on the season)
Desmond Ridder OVER 0.5 interceptions (+100)
Patriots team total UNDER 16.5 points (vs. Buffalo)
Dolphins moneyline to beat Eagles (+120) |
| As for PropStarz, he handed out a few of his favorite props for the weekend, because when your nickname is PropStarz, that's what the people expect. |
| Commanders at Giants: Saquon Barkley longest rush OVER 14.5 yardsLions at Ravens: Mark Andrews OVER 53.5 receiving yardsEagles at Jets: Rachaad White UNDER 73.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115) |
| PropStarz went 2-1 last week and is now 9-9 on the season, including 8-4 over the past four weeks. |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 7 -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Thursday night grades after Jaguars' 31-24 win over Saints |
| The Jaguars were a 2.5-point underdog last night and were playing with an injured quarterback, but they were still able to pull out a 31-24 win over the Saints in a game that went down to the wire. The outcome wasn't decided until Derek Carr missed Chris Olave on a fourth-down throw from Jacksonville's six-yard line with less than 25 seconds left to play in the game. |
| Here are our grades from Jacksonville's win: |
| JAGUARS GRADE: B |
| Although Trevor Lawrence was on the injury report all week with a banged-up knee, he definitely didn't play like he had a banged-up knee. Not only did Lawrence throw for 204 yards and a touchdown, but he was also Jacksonville's leading rusher with 59 yards. The Saints seemed to be caught off guard every time Lawrence looked to scramble, and he took advantage of that by taking off eight times. Although Lawerence played well, the Jags offense did disappear in the second half before re-appearing with just three minutes left to play when Lawrence hit Christian Kirk for a 44-yard score that ended up winning the game. The Jaguars defense also had an up-and-down game, but it did make several clutch plays, including a pick-six from Foyesade Oluokun and a fourth-down stop on New Orleans' final offensive play. The Jags were somewhat sloppy at times -- they turned the ball over twice in the first half -- but when you can play a sloppy game and still beat a decent team on the road by seven points, that usually means you're pretty good, and the Jags are pretty good. |
| Jaguars notes |
| Hot start. Thanks to their win over the Saints, the Jaguars are now 5-2 on the season, which might not be something to brag about for most franchises, but it is for the Jags. At 5-2, the Jags are off to their best seven-game start since 2007, and they're tied for the second-best seven-game start in franchise history. Jags get past New Orleans voodoo. The win over the Saints marked the first time in franchise history the Jaguars have won in New Orleans. They were previously 0-3. It also marks the first time Lawrence has won a game at the SuperDome. During his college career, Lawrence had a 34-2 career record as a starter with both losses coming in New Orleans. |
| SAINTS GRADE: C |
| The Saints fought back from a 24-9 deficit to tie things up at 24 in this game, but in the end, they just made way too many big mistakes. The mistakes started with Blake Grupe's missed field goal in the first quarter and ended with Foster Moreau dropping a potential game-tying TD pass with just under 30 seconds left to play. (It was a bad drop that you can see it here .) In-between, there was a Derek Carr pick-six, and let's not forget the defense gave up a 44-yard TD pass with just three minutes left to play that ended up providing the game-winning points. One other issue for the Saints is that the offense is still struggling in the red zone. Not to mention, it couldn't convert a third down in this game (they went 3 of 18). This was a total team loss in every sense of the word. The Saints have now lost four of their past five since starting the season 2-0. |
| Saints note |
| The Carr is stalling. Through seven weeks, Derek Carr is off to one of the worst starts of his career. Carr is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt so far this season, which is his worst mark through seven games since his rookie year in 2014. Carr's QB rating is sitting at just 82.8, which is his worst rating through seven weeks since his rookie year. Also, Carr has just six touchdown passes, which is the lowest number in his career through seven games. The Saints thought he would fix their QB problems, but that simply hasn't been the case. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. 10 players who need to be traded |
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| With the NFL trade deadline right around the corner, we thought we'd take a look at 10 players who need to be dealt before the deadline hits on Oct. 31. |
| Here are five players from Garrett Podell's list: |
| Raiders WR Davante Adams. "If he truly wants to win and keep his Hall of Fame dreams alive, he would be better off somewhere else."Commanders EDGE Chase Young. "Young is in a bad spot with Washington, but he could lift a contender's defense to new heights if given the opportunity."Eagles EDGE Derek Barnett. "The Super Bowl champion is still only 27 after being selected 14th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, and he could be a nice rotation piece for a team who has a little more playtime available along its defensive line."Cardinals TE Zach Ertz. "Ertz could provide a strong target in the red zone for a team with eyes on playoff contention. That is not his current situation as a member of the 1-5 Arizona Cardinals. A reunion with the Eagles could make sense, as well as joining a number of other teams in need of another strong pair of hands."Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy. "Denver would be wise to attempt to flip him for more draft compensation." |
| If you want to see our full list of players who need to be traded, then be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL Week 7 picks: Dolphins beat Eagles, Rams top Steelers |
| I hope you're not tired of reading our picks yet, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco along with Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After going a combined 11-4 over the past three weeks, we fell on our faces in Week 6 with a record of 1-4. Heading into Week 7, we're a combined 17-12-1 against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter. |
| Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
| Pete Prisco: Rams (-3) 24-20 over Steelers. From Prisco: "The Rams are coming off a home victory over Arizona. The Rams defense played well in that game, which isn't a good thing for a Steelers offense that has had issues all season long. The Rams can attack the Steelers through the air with Matt Stafford and his receivers, which is why they will win this game." For the rest of Prisco's Week 7 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan: Dolphins (+1.5) 30-27 over Eagles. From Sullivan: "Tyreek Hill continues to make a legitimate MVP case, as he's on pace for more than 2,300 receiving yards. Now, he gets a Philly secondary that is allowing 302 passing yards per game at home this season (second-most in the NFL)." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 7 picks, be sure to click here.Will Brinson: Bills (-8.5) to cover against Patriots. From Brinson: "Since Tom Brady left, things have gone downhill for the Patriots. Bill Belichick is feeling heat internally and externally. Underrated throughout all of it is how badly the Bills have been thumping New England in the wake of the GOAT departing. The two teams have squared off seven times since Brady flew south in free agency (including one playoff game), and the results are decidedly one-sided with the Bills winning each of the past four meetings by double digits." For the rest of Brinson's Week 7 best bets, be sure to click here.Jordan Dajani: Packers (-1) 27-20 over Broncos. From Dajani: "Yes, the Packers have struggled as of late. After averaging 31 points per game in Weeks 1-2, they've averaged just 17 points per game over the last three weeks. Jordan Love's last outing was atrocious, as he threw zero touchdowns and three interceptions in a loss to the Raiders. However, Green Bay is coming off of its bye week, so he could be set for a breakout game." For the rest of Dajani's Week 7 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech: Chiefs (-5.5) 30-23 over Chargers. "Through the first six weeks, the Chargers have surrendered an average of 289 passing yards per game, which is the WORST NUMBER IN THE NFL, and now, they have to face Patrick Mahomes, which doesn't seem like a good thing for the Chargers. The Chiefs have won three straight against the Chargers, and in those three games, they've averaged 30.3 points, so that's about what I'm expecting to see this week." For the rest of my Week 7 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 7 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBS Sports picks page here. |
| 5. Bold predictions for Week 6: Chiefs surrender at least 21 points for first time this season |
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| Since you're probably tired of picks at this point, we're going to spice things up by giving out some bold predictions, which are like picks, except better. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Week 7, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, he predicted that C.J. Stroud's record-setting streak without an interception would come to an end against the Saints, and that's exactly what happened. |
| Bold predictions for Week 7: |
| 1. Chargers become first team to top 21 points against Chiefs. "The Chiefs defense is the only one in the league to allow 21 or fewer points in every game this season, and they rank second in the NFL in scoring defense (14.7 points per game allowed, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers' 14.5 points per game allowed). It's a remarkable shift from a season ago because they allowed 21 points or fewer in seven games ALL OF LAST SEASON. ... These matchups involving Herbert versus Mahomes almost always turn into high-scoring affairs. The two have combined to throw 25 passing touchdowns in their first five meetings. Look for the Chargers to top 21."2. Colts rushing attack comes alive against vaunted Browns defense. "The Colts surprisingly have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL this season. Zack Moss, a career backup entering 2023, ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards (466) behind only Christian McCaffrey (553) ... That production has come in place of 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor, who returned to action two weeks ago after signing a three-year, $42 million contract extension. The Browns have a great defense, but many teams aren't the same the following week after playing the physical bullies that are the San Francisco 49ers. Since the start of 2022, teams are 2-18 in the week after playing San Francisco, including an 0-15 record from last season. ... The Browns may win against the Gardner Minshew-led Colts on Sunday, but they will allow at least 120 rushing yards against Indianapolis thanks to the caliber of Indy's running backs and being emotionally and physically worn down."3. Rams defeat Steelers team that's coming off a bye. "Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 12-5 after a bye. However, that post bye-week success won't continue in 2023. No amount of rest and adjustments can fix what ails the Steelers offense. It is averaging 15.8 points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. That would rank as its worst in a season since 1969. Despite its 3-2 record, Pittsburgh is the only team this season with a winning record and a negative point-differential (-31)." |
| Garrett has five bold predictions for Week 7, and you can check out all of them by clicking here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Jimmy Garoppolo ruled out vs. Bears |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Jimmy Garoppolo ruled out for Week 7. The Raiders QB, who suffered a back injury in Week 6, won't be on the field Sunday against the Bears. The Raiders starter will either be rookie Aidan O'Connell or veteran Brian Hoyer. The last time Garoppolo was out, the start went to O'Connell, who threw for 238 yards in a Week 4 loss ot the Chargers. With Tyson Bagent expected to start for the Bears, it will be backup vs. backup in this game. Panthers receiver given permission to seek trade. Terrace Marshall Jr. has requested a trade out of Carolina, and the team has granted him permission to look for suitors. Marshall, who was a second-round pick in 2021, has been unhappy with his role this year. Heading into Week 7, he has 16 catches for 114 yards. We came up with a list of possible landing spots, and you can check those out here.
Saquon Barkley wants to stay with Giants. It seems unlikely the Giants will trade Barkley away before the deadline this year, but if they're thinking about it, he'd like the team to know he doesn't want to be traded. Travis Kelce just bought a mansion. The Chiefs tight end just dropped $6 million to buy a new mansion in Kansas City. Apparently, not only did Kelce want a bigger house, but he wanted to live in a more secure area now that he's dating an international superstar.
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| | | | | College Football on CBS | | NFL on CBS | Saturday, a huge afternoon of college football on CBS kicks off at 12:00 PM ET with #22 Air Force taking on Navy. Then at 3:30 PM ET, the SEC on CBS features a rematch of one of last year's most memorable games when the #17 ranked Vols go on the road against #11 Alabama.
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| | Sunday, an NFL on CBS doubleheader features rivalries from coast to coast. Early action is highlighted by an AFC East matchup between the Bills and Patriots. Later, It's an AFC West showdown between the Chargers and the Chiefs. The day kicks off at 12:00 PM ET with The NFL Today.
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