| Ready player one | Europe's cars are crashing |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 19th in 3:11 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. The rally in bonds looks to be ending as investors brace for the next stage of coronavirus
  2. WeWork's Japanese owner is refusing to invest another $3 billion in the coworking company – Read Now
  3. European car sales have had their worst start to a year since 2013, and American darling Tesla has hit some rough road too
1/3

Prophet Of Doom

Prophet Of Doom

What’s Going On Here?

The prices of US and European government bonds are tumbling, leading investors to wonder if this departure from safe havens is a sign of better times ahead – or of impending doom.

What Does This Mean?

In an effort to support their economies during the coronavirus outbreak, governments across the world are planning to spend hundreds of billions in borrowed dollars to prop up struggling businesses and individuals. And that means they’ll need to sell bonds.

It’s partly investors' expectations of the increased supply that’s pushing the prices of US and European government bonds lower, in turn driving yields – which move inversely to prices – up from recent record lows. That much was clear from the yields of 10-year US bonds, which continued to rally on Tuesday after Monday’s biggest jump since 1987. There were similar selloffs among Germany and Britain’s bonds too – despite often being considered some of the safest investments around.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: The optimism test.
The selling of bonds is normally seen as an indication investors are predicting rosy times ahead. So it’s entirely possible the bond market is a glimpse past the impending recession and into the sharp rebound in economic demand we’ll see once “social distancing” is a distant memory. Then again, it’s also possible the simultaneous drop in both bond and stock prices is a sign that investors looking to cash out are simply urging fund managers to sell everything...

The bigger picture: Inflation nation.
Debt-fueled government spending should, in theory, lead to inflation, which is poison for bonds because it reduces the future value of their fixed payments. But investors have made that prediction and been proved wrong again and again since the massive bailouts following the 2008 financial crisis. Those who believe this time around will finally be different will probably be drawn to “tangible” investments like gold, copper, or real estate – or else seek out inflation-protected bonds, whose interest payments rise if inflation rears its head.

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2/3 Premium

We Can't Work It Out

With the world’s workers stuck at home, it’s a bad time to be in the office space business. And there was more woe for WeWork this week as its biggest investor backed away from a $3 billion bailout of the controversial coworking company…

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3/3

Crash Test

Crash Test

What’s Going On Here?

The current economic situation is making a dummy out of every industry, and Europe’s carmakers – which have already seen sales fall by more than 7% this year – are bracing for the worst.

What Does This Mean?

The autos industry is already on the back tire because it’s “cyclical”, which means cars are one of the first purchases consumers will sideline if they’re preparing for, say, a pandemic. But the industry has another roadblock too: there might not be any cars available even if people want them. BMW, for one, announced on Wednesday that it would shut down its European and South African factories for a while, and so did arch-rival Daimler and the world’s biggest automaker Volkswagen. And while recent border closures – including between the US and Canada – don’t affect essential trade, cars might not fall into that category for long if Tesla’s anything to go by…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Tesla goes into shutdown.
There’s a lot of correlation between stocks at the moment – i.e. they all tend to move in the same direction at the same time – which makes backing an individual company even harder than usual. But Tesla’s stock, which dropped 10% on Wednesday, fell by more than most. The carmaker had initially kept its Califonia plant open, but the government – which deemed the business non-essential – shut it down on Wednesday. The investors who then sold off Tesla’s stock probably did so because of the damage a shutdown will have on its ability to manufacture and deliver its electric vehicles.

Zooming out: Prime the pump.
The oil price plumbed lows not seen since 2002 on Wednesday, due in part to Saudi Arabia’s increase in production (tweet this). Tesla drivers might not need to pay much attention, but other car-owners are all ears: their gas costs are now likely to come down sooner or later.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Courage is not the absence of despair: it is rather the capacity to move ahead in spite of despair.”

– Rollo May (an American existential psychologist)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Dim Views

“If banks and airlines have been buying back their own shares in recent years, why don’t they just sell those shares to raise additional cash?”

– Robert in Hong Kong

“There’s a couple of reasons for that, Robert. Given the recent dramatic stock price drops – with airlines down around 50% in the last month, and some banks down 40% – shares would at best sell at a much lower price than the company thinks is fair, and would in turn raise less money than they would’ve done a month ago. At worst, the share sale would cause their stock prices to fall even further, since there’d be more supply without the demand to absorb it. And since company boards have a responsibility to protect shareholder interests, they’d be unlikely to sanction a move that would significantly reduce the value of shareholders’ stakes.”

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🌍 Finimize Community

🚨 Community Public Service Announcement

“The number one priority is the health and safety of our community, which is why we’ve taken the decision to suspend all in-person Finimize events around the world until further notice. But even in times of major uncertainty, one thing is true: knowledge is power. So the Finimize Community team and our global network of hosts are planning new ways to connect you with actionable information and expert opinions via online events. Up first:

⚡️ Online: Sustainable Investing Club: 6pm GMT, March 19th
⚡️ Online: Finimize Live: 1pm GMT, March 20th

Stay classy – and healthy – out there folks ✌️”

Max Rothery, VP Community

📚 What we're reading (that isn't about coronavirus)

  • Astronauts’ top tips for staying cool (Digital Trends)
  • Laser injections are the future. Pew pew (Endgadget)
  • A lesson in adding a laptop password (Futurism)
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