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| Friday, October 25, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I'd like to start things off today by sending my condolences to all Vikings fans. Between all the Super Bowl losses and the brutal missed field goals in franchise history, that fan base has already been through enough, and now, we get to add something new to the list: A controversial no-call on an obvious penalty. |
| The officiating crew apparently forgot what a face mask penalty was during the final minutes of last night's game, because they missed an obvious was one on the Rams during Minnesota's 30-20 loss. Not only will we be breaking down that controversial ending in today's newsletter, but we'll also be handing out grades for both teams. However, we won't be grading the refs, which is almost too bad. Maybe we should start doing that. |
| Also, today's Friday, which means we'll also have some picks and bold predictions for Week 8. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Rams upset Vikings: Grades and notes for 'Thursday Night Football' |
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| With a 2-4 record heading into Thursday night's game, the Los Angeles Rams needed a win to save its season and that's exactly what happened with L.A. pulling out a wild 30-20 win over the Vikings. Although there was definitely some controversy in this game, which we'll cover in our next section, don't let that fool you into thinking the Rams were given this game. They outplayed the Vikings over the final three quarters and now look like a team that could be dangerous going forward. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| VIKINGS GRADE: B- |
| The Vikings got off to a fast start by playing nearly perfect football in the first quarter, but after the Rams adjusted to what they were doing, Minnesota's offense slowed down considerably. The Vikings had more yards in the first quarter (140) than they did in the final three quarters combined (136). With Justin Jefferson shut down in the fourth quarter (he had zero catches) and the Vikings run game struggling in the second half (the rushing attack totaled 20 yards in the half), the pressure was on Sam Darnold to carry the offense over the final two quarters and he couldn't quite do it. The offense had some serious struggles in the red zone, which ended up being the big difference in the game: The Rams scored on every trip they made to the red zone while the Vikings were just 2 of 4. The Vikings now have lost two straight games coming out of the their bye and to make matters worse, they lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a knee injury in the first half. |
| Vikings notes |
| Justin Jefferson still doing Justin Jefferson things. The Vikings star had a huge night, catching eight passes for 115 yards and that includes pulling in the catch of the game with a one-handed grab that went for 27 yards in the third quarter (You can see the play here ). By hitting 115 yards, Jefferson went over the century mark for the 31st time in his career, which is the most by any player in NFL history through their first five seasons. Jefferson passed Randy Moss, who did it 30 times in his first five seasons. Lions curse continues. With the Vikings loss, every team that has faced the Lions this year has lost their next game. Teams are a combined 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread after facing the Lions and all five of those losses have been by two scores. You can read more about this bizarre streak here. |
| RAMS GRADE: A- |
| With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field together for the first time since Week 1, the Rams looked like a completely different team and Matthew Stafford looked like a completely different quarterback (He threw for 279 yards). Stafford threw four TD passes against the Vikings, which was more than he threw in the Rams' first six games of the season combined (3). Kupp and Nacua combined for 12 catches that went for 157 yards and one touchdown, which came from Kupp. When those two are having success, that opens things up on the ground and that happened here with Kyren Williams rushing for 97 yards. The Rams defense got run over in the first quarter, but came alive after that, holding the Vikings out of the end zone over the final three quarters. A big reason that happened is because of Jared Verse, who kept constant pressure on Sam Darnold while tallying 1.5 sacks. With this win, there's no reason for the Rams to be sellers at the trade deadline, because this looks like a team that could compete to win the NFC West. |
| Rams note |
| Kyren keeps finding the end zone. Kyren Williams caught a touchdown pass against the Vikings, which means that he's now scored at least one TD in 10 straight games. That's the longest active scoring streak by any NFL player and tied fort he second-longest streak in Rams' history, trailing only Todd Gurley, who onced scored in 13 straight games. |
| Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here. |
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| 2. Breaking down Thursday night's controversial ending: Vikings get hosed by officials |
| The NFL hasn't had to deal with very many officiating controversies this year, but the league had an ugly one pop up on Thursday night. |
| Here are the details of the situation: |
| Rams gets away with obvious face mask penalty. With 1:36 left to play in the fourth quarter, the Vikings were trailing 28-20, but they had the ball at their own 5-yard line with a chance to drive down and score a game-tying touchdown. On second-and-10, Sam Darnold got sacked in his end zone for a safety that iced the win for Los Angeles. However, the safety shouldn't have counted because there was an OBVIOUS face mask on the play by Rams linebacker Byron Young. (You can see how bad the the face mask was here). The problem for the Vikings is that there was NO FLAG thrown on the play, which means the Rams got two points from the safety, and that essentially iced the game. If the penalty had been called, the Vikings would have had first-and-10 at their own 20 with 1:36 left and no timeouts.Officials respond to missed call. After the game, referee Tre Blake was asked about the missed call and he said that he missed it because he simply couldn't see it. "The quarterback was facing the opposite direction from me, so I did not have a good look at it," Blake said. "I did not have a look, and I did not see the face mask being pulled, obviously." Here's a view that shows Blake's angle of the play . Darnold had his back to Blake, so it's possible he didn't realize the facemask happened. The umpire also could have thrown a flag here, but that didn't happen, because he was "blocked out as well," according to Blake. There were at least three officials who appeared to be looking Darnold's way (You can see the video here), but no one threw a flag. Why the NFL didn't fix it. If you've been watching the NFL this year, especially prime-time games, you may have noticed that the league has been using replay assist to help the officiating crew quickly solve issues that arise on the field. However, replay assist doesn't apply to a face mask penalty. Since this was a scoring play, the booth was able to review it, but face masking isn't a penalty that's allowed to be reviewed once the play is over. Vikings had the odds stacked against them. When the drive started, the Vikings were in a situation that almost always results in a loss. As pointed out by ESPN's Mike Sando, NFL teams that need a touchdown and have to drive at least 90 yards with no timeouts with two minutes or less left in the game are just 2-28 since the start of 2000 season. Even though their chances of winning were slim, the Vikings got hosed here and the NFL really needs to put a mechanism in place so that it can review objective penalties like a face mask. |
| If you want to read more about the controversial no-call, you can do that here. |
| 3. NFL trade deadline: Five last-minute proposals that teams should consider |
| With the NFL trade deadline just 11 days away, we're getting down to the nitty gritty here. Some teams are probably still trying to figure out if they're going to be buyers or sellers at the deadline and the results of Week 8 will likely have a big say in that (The Rams are good example of this: If they had lost on Thursday, they likely would have been open to trading away key players, but since they won, it's unlikely we'll see them trade anyone away). |
| Since the trade deadline is so close, Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at a few last minute deals that need to be considered around the league: |
| 49ers trade for Panthers WR Diontae Johnson. "San Francisco has big bucks tied up in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, but the former is battling a lingering illness and the latter is done for the year with a knee injury, leaving Brock Purdy to lean on rookie Ricky Pearsall and a banged-up Jauan Jennings out wide. Johnson was just acquired by the Carolina Panthers this offseason, but he's not signed beyond 2024, making him ripe for another relocation."Lions acquire Browns DE Za'Darius Smith. "The Lions are in desperate need of emergency edge-rushing help, with star sack artist Aidan Hutchinson likely out for the rest of the year. Smith knows the NFC North well, having already suited up for both the Packers and Vikings."Buccaneers trade for Jaguars WR Christian Kirk. "Tampa Bay is in dire need of reinforcements for Baker Mayfield, with No. 1 Mike Evans sidelined due to a hamstring injury and fellow starter Chris Godwin done for the year with an ankle issue. Kirk's proven slot skills could make him an easy fit." |
| You can see Cody's full list of trade proposals here. |
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| 4. NFL Week 8 picks: Falcons take control of NFC South with win over Buccaneers |
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| It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. As we head into Week 8, the five of us continue to tread water. Last week, we went 2-3 against the spread and 2-3 straight-up. That means we're now 16-19 ATS on the season with the picks that we've featured in this part of the newsletter (and 14-17 straight-up). |
| I gave everyone a pep talk yesterday, so I think this is the week where we finally turn things around. |
| If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 8 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 8 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life. |
| Pete Prisco -- Bills (-3) 34-28 over Seahawks. From Prisco: "This is a long, tough road trip for the Bills. Seattle can score on anybody, which will challenge the Buffalo defense. But I think the Bills offense will really get it going here. Look for a lot of points with the Bills coming away with the victory thanks to a late-touchdown pass from Josh Allen." For the rest of Prisco's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan -- Falcons (-2.5) 24-20 over Buccaneers. From Sullivan: "The Buccaneers were demoralized by injuries on Monday and now have to gear up on a short week for a pivotal divisional matchup with the Falcons. Losing both Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) drastically lowers the ceiling of what Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense can do." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. Jason La Canfora -- Ravens at Browns OVER 44 points. From La Canfora: "The Browns offense will open up with Jameis Winston slinging it deep like Joe Flacco did, and Baltimore has the worst fourth quarter defense in the NFL (allowing 25 more points than anyone else), so garbage time should help us out plenty. Every Baltimore game this season is finished above this total." You can check out the rest of JLC's best bets for Week 8 here.Jordan Dajani -- 49ers (-4) 27-20 over Cowboys. From Dajani: "As you probably know, the 49ers own the Cowboys. They've won three straight meetings vs. Dallas, which is coming off a much-needed bye after being blown out by Detroit, 47-9. I'm aware the 49ers are banged-up and lost Brandon Aiyuk for the year, but the Cowboys have the second-worst scoring defense (28 points allowed per game) and what is by far the worst rushing offense (77.2 rushing yards per game)." For the rest of Dajani's Week 8 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech -- Dolphins (-4) 30-20 over Cardinals. The Dolphins offense has been dreadful over the past four weeks, but with Tua Tagovailoa expected to return on Sunday, I think we'll see some offensive fireworks from Miami's biggest stars like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. For the rest of my Week 8 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 8 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here. |
| 5. NFL bold predictions for Week 8: Eagles end unlikely drought |
| After giving you some bold predictions for Week 7 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 8. Garrett always seem to nail a few of these predictions, including last week, when he said that the Lions would beat the Vikings in what was Detroit's first game without Aidan Hutchinson. |
| Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday: |
| 1. Eagles finally score a first-quarter point. "Scoring in the first quarter for an NFL team should be a piece of cake. However, that has not been the case for the Eagles: they have scored zero points in the opening quarter of all six of their games this season. They are the only team in the NFL who has yet to score in the first quarter this season. ... That won't matter on Sunday as Philly gets on the scoreboard in the game's first 15 minutes. Jalen Hurts is on pace to register a career-high in completion percentage this season (67.8%, which currently ranks as the ninth-best in the NFL), and A.J. Brown has caught a receiving touchdown in all three games he has played this season. He has also been a big play machine, averaging a career-high 20.3 yards per catch this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Hurts will connect with Brown for a big enough play that either leads to Philly getting into the end zone or at the very least field goal position to get on the score board in the first quarter for the first time in 2024."2. Josh Allen extends record-setting streak with no interceptions. "Since joining the league in 2018, Allen ranks third in the league in passing touchdowns (179), but in his first six years (2018-2023), his 78 interceptions led the NFL. Fast forward to today, and Allen has played clean football with 12 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions to start 2024. He is the third quarterback in NFL history with 12 or more passing touchdowns and no interceptions through the first seven games of a season. Allen's consecutive games without an interception is the longest streak by a starting quarterback in Bills history. He'll be challenged to keep that run going in Week 8 against one of the longest cornerback duos in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks tandem of Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. However, Allen will avoid the many pitfalls in Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald's defensive scheme and remain interception free on Sunday." |
| Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 8, and you check out all of them here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Tua officially cleared to play on Sunday |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Tua Tagovailoa to start against Cardinals. Tua has finally been medically cleared, which means he'll definitely be the Dolphins' starting quarterback on Sunday when they play host to the Cardinals. He had been practicing all week, but he needed to be cleared before he could play on Sunday. Tua hasn't played since Week 2 when he suffered the third known concussion of his career in a game against the Bills. Jameson Williams headed for two-game suspension. The Lions receiver could have appealed his two-game suspension, but instead, he's just going to accept the punishment. Williams' decision means that he won't be on the field in Week 8 (vs. Titans) or Week 9 (at Packers). DeAndre Hopkins will play for Chiefs this week. There will be no warming up period for DeAndre Hopkins. The former Titans receiver, who was officially traded to the Chiefs on Wednesday, is going to suit up and play against the Raiders on Sunday, according to Andy Reid. The Chiefs will be hoping that Hopkins can help spark an offense that has been struggling this year. Broncos receiver wounded in shooting. Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds was wounded during a shooting on Oct. 18. Reynolds is currently on injured reserve, which is why it took a week for this news to come out. You can check out the full details on the situation here. Modern Hall of Famers list trimmed to 50. There were 167 modern-era nominees back in August, but that list has now been trimmed down to just 50. Eli Manning, Earl Thomas and Marshawn Lynch headline a group of players who are still alive to be elected to the Hall of Fame's Class of 2025. You can see the full list here . The list will eventually be trimmed down to 25 semifinalists and then 20 finalists. After that, the selection committee will meet during Super Bowl week in New Orleans where they'll vote to induct between four and eight modern-era players. |
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