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| Monday, December 23, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Christmas Eve Eve of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Since it's Christmas week, that means things will be slightly changing around here over the next few days. We'll be coming at you tomorrow with a Christmas Eve edition of the newsletter, so ho ho ho, but Santa has asked us to take Christmas day off since that's his time to shine and I will never not do what Santa says. |
| Speaking of Santa, he delivered the Buccaneers some coal in their stocking on Sunday night. The Bucs were in total control of the NFC South, but that's no longer the case after their surprising 26-24 loss to the Cowboys. |
| That was one of several games on Sunday that had major playoff implications, and now that we know how things shook out in Week 16, we'll be breaking down the playoff picture. We'll also be handing out some grades along with some winners and losers. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It makes a great Christmas present and that's mostly because it's free. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. NFL Week 16 grades: Commanders earn 'B+' for big win over Eagles |
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| Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games played Sunday: |
| Commanders 36-33 over Eagles (Click here for full recap) |
| Eagles takeaway: The Eagles had to play the final three-and-a-half quarters of this game without Jalen Hurts (concussion), so the fact that they were able to keep this close was impressive. With Hurts out, the offense relied on Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns, but he was held to just 27 yards in the second half. The biggest surprise here is that the Eagles had a defensive meltdown in the fourth quarter, surrendering 22 points. Only four teams had scored at least 22 points on Philly in an ENTIRE game all season, and the Commanders did that in one quarter. The Eagles are still in the driver's seat for the division title, but this loss almost kills any chance they have of landing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Grade: B+ Commanders takeaway: The NFL might want to go ahead and give the Offensive Rookie of the Year award to Jayden Daniels right now. The Commanders quarterback had his most impressive game of the season: Not only Daniels lead the team with 81 rushing yards, but he also threw for 258 yards and FIVE touchdowns, including a game-winning score to Jamison Crowder with just nine seconds left. It was a jaw-dropping game for the rookie QB, who threw three TD passes in the fourth quarter alone. The reason this isn't an 'A' is because the Commanders turned the ball over five times, but the silver lining there is that they were still able to win despite the five turnovers. This is going to be a team that no one wants to play in the playoffs. Grade: B+ |
| Vikings 27-24 over Seahawks (Click here for full recap) |
| Vikings takeaway: There's a reason Justin Jefferson is the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, and he showed why in this game. The Vikings star caught 10 passes for 144 yards and two touchdowns, including a 39-yard score that put Minnesota up for good with just under four minutes left to play. This was a gritty win by a Vikings team that got a gritty performance from Sam Darnold and a gritty performance on the defensive side of the ball. The defense got torched by Geno Smith, but the unit made up for it by coming up with big play after big play, including a pick by Theo Jackson that iced the win with under a minute left to play. At 13-2, the Vikings are perfectly positioned to steal the NFC North from the Lions if they can win their final two games. Grade: B Seahawks takeaway: When you're playing a team as good as the Vikings, you can't afford to make many mistakes and the Seahawks just made one too many here. Geno Smith had a solid day, throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. The offense struggled on third down, converting on just 2 of 10 attempts, including zero in the first half. Defensively, the Seahawks did a solid job of slowing down Minnesota, well, everyone except for Justin Jefferson. The Vikings receiver finished with 144 receiving yards, which was nearly half of Minnesota's 298-yard total in the game. The Seahawks are now on the cusp of playoff elimination. Grade: B- |
| As for the other 26 grades I handed out in Week 16, you can check those out by clicking here. |
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| 2. NFL Week 16 winners and losers: Bird teams have mostly bad week |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, and we're going to check out his winners below. |
| LOSERS |
| Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (Panthers beat Cardinals 36-30 in overtime). "Whereas Penix and Jayden Daniels showed out on Sunday, Murray went the opposite direction in a must-win situation, throwing his sixth interception of the last four games for the Arizona Cardinals. While he's had flashes this year, the former No. 1 overall pick has now missed the playoffs, finished the season hurt or both in five of his six NFL seasons. Is it crazy to think the team could consider competition in 2025?"The Eagles (Commanders beat Eagles, 36-33). "Looking to win their 11th straight and stay in the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed, the Eagles instead lost Jalen Hurts to a concussion, lost their cool with multiple personal fouls and ultimately lost a very winnable game to the rival Commanders. At 12-3, they're still in position to make a solid run, but Sunday was also a step back for the typically stout Vic Fangio defense. Maybe it'll be a wake-up call."Josh Allen's hands (Bills beat Patriots, 24-21). "The Bills star came into Sunday's matchup with the Patriots reportedly battling a fracture in his left hand, then started shaking his right hand after late-game throws, requiring medical attention. The Bills officially diagnosed him with a right elbow contusion, and Allen didn't miss a snap despite Mitchell Trubisky warming up, but his health is something to monitor moving forward." |
| If you want to see Cody's list of winners, be sure to click here. |
| 3. 13 crazy stats from Week 16: Joe Burrow makes NFL history |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 13 crazy stats about Week 16: |
| Joe Burrow makes history. The Bengals QB threw for 252 yards and three touchdowns, which is the seventh game in a row that he's thrown for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns. That breaks Tom Brady's NFL record of six games in a row that had stood since 2007.Jayden Daniels joins exclusive club. The Commanders rookie finished with 258 passing yards and five touchdown passes along with 81 rushing yards, making him just the second player in NFL history to throw for at least 250 yards and five touchdowns with at least 75 rushing yards in the same. The only other player to pull that off was Cam Newton in 2015. Daniels also became the first rookie in NFL history to throw two game-winning TD passes in the final 30 seconds at any point during his rookie season (His other one came on his Hail Mary in Washington's win over Chicago back in Week 8). Eagles' first five-turnover loss in 25 years. The Eagles forced five turnovers against the Commanders, but still lost, marking the first time since 1999 that they forced at least five turnovers in a game without winning.Jared Goff leads Lions to new territory. The Lions picked up their 13th win on Sunday, which sets the franchise record for most wins in a season. Goff also joined Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to lead multiple teams to a 13-win season. NFC North having an unprecedented season. With the Lions and Vikings both now at 13 wins, that makes the NFC North just the second division in NFL history to produce two 13-win teams, joining the 1999 AFC Central. Saquon Barkley has big quarter. The Eagles running back totaled 109 rushing yards in the first quarter, which was the most in a first quarter by any player since 2010. Barkley now has 1,838 yards on the season and needs a total of 268 over Philly's final two games to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Colts run over the Titans. The Colts totaled a franchise-record 335 rushing yards against the Titans. In the process of doing that, Jonathan Taylor (218 yards) and Anthony Richardson (70 yards) made history: It marked the first time that a running back had 200 rushing yards or more and a QB teammate had 70 rushing yards or more in the same game.Anthony Richardson pulls off a rarity. The Colts scored 38 points even though Richardson only threw 11 passes. That's the most points by a team with 11 or fewer pass attempts since 1978 when the Jets scored 45 points in a game where they only threw 10 passes.Jets' no-punt plan fails. The Jets didn't have a single punt in Week 16, but despite that, they only managed to score nine points, which was the second-lowest scoring output by a team with no punts since 1950. Over the past 74 years, the only number that was lower came from the Colts, who scored seven points with no punts in 1991. Falcons have a pick-six party. Getting two pick sixes in the same game doesn't happen often for the Falcons. Before Sunday, the last time they pulled off the feat came all the way back in 1983. Jessie Bates III and Matthew Judon both got touchdowns on Sunday after picking off Drew Lock in Atlanta's 34-7 win over the Giants. Caleb Williams can't catch a break. Caleb Williams has now lost nine games this year where he threw zero interceptions, which is the most zero-interception losses in a single season by a quarterback since QB starts were first tracked in 1950 (via NFL media). Bowers power hour. Brock Bowers caught 11 passes for 99 yards and now has 101 catches for 1,067 yards on the season. He is now tied for the third-most receptions by a rookie and is just five catches away from breaking Puka Nacua's rookie record of 105. Bowers is also just 10 yards away from breaking Mike Ditka's rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end.Won't you be my Naber. Brock Bowers isn't the only player eyeing the rookie receptions record. After catching seven passes against the Falcons, Malik Nabers now has 97 on the season. Nabers might not pass Bowers, but his production has arguably been slightly more impressive and that's because he missed two games. Both players will be gunning to pass Nacua's rookie receptions record of 105 |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL Week 16 overreactions: Falcons to the playoffs? |
| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 16 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Statement: Michael Penix Jr. will lead the Falcons to the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Falcons crushed the Giants and the Buccaneers lost to the Cowboys, giving the Falcons the division lead with two games to play and Atlanta has the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay by sweeping the Buccaneers earlier this season. ... The Falcons don't need Penix to be great, just protect the football in the games he starts. Remember, all Atlanta has to do is tie Tampa Bay in the division. The Buccaneers blew a huge opportunity against the Cowboys. They need the Falcons to falter now, which may not happen if Penix improves by the week." |
Statement: Bengals will make the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The Bengals play the Broncos in Cincinnati on Saturday before finishing off with the Steelers in Week 18. Cincinnati has an opportunity to extend its season another week and to earn a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver. Too much still needs to happen to take a playoff spot, though. The Bengals have a 4-6 conference record, losing a conference-record tiebreaker to the Colts and Dolphins. Basically, the Bengals need to win out and hope the Colts and Dolphins lose one of their last two. They also need the Broncos to lose their final two games to have a shot. Certainly not impossible, but also an overreaction to claim this is a playoff team." |
Statement: Vikings will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "To get the top seed, all Minnesota has to do is survive Green Bay (at home) in Week 17 before a date with with Detroit in Week 18. The Vikings are in position to seize the No. 1 seed, but beating Green Bay twice in a season is no easy task. Minnesota deserves to be in this conversation for the No. 1 seed, but let's see what the Vikings do against the Packers next week." |
| There are plenty more overreactions from Week 16, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Saints at Packers |
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| For the final game of Week 16, the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field will be on display with the Packers hosting the Saints in Green Bay. The 5-9 Saints were officially eliminated from the playoff race on Sunday, and now, they have to face a Packers team that can clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight. |
| With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: |
| Why the Saints can win: The Saints won't have their leading passer (Derek Carr), their leading rusher (Alvin Kamara) or their leading receiver (also Kamara), so it's hard to see this team pulling off the upset, which probably explains why they're a 14-point underdog. The Saints are 3-1 this season when they rush for at least 150 yards, so if Kendre Miller can get things going on the ground, that will allow New Orleans to control the game, which might give them a fighting chance to win. That would also take some pressure off Spencer Rattler, who will be making just the fourth start of his career. Why the Packers can win: The Packers have been beating up on bad teams this year. The Packers have played eight games this year against teams that are currently under .500 and they've gone 8-0 in those games while winning by an average of 13.1 points per game. If you combine that with the fact that the Saints are surrendering 376.6 yards per game, which is the third most in the NFL, this means we could see a big night from the Packers offense. As long as the Packers don't turn the ball over, this feels like a game they should be able to dominate. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the games, here are a couple of props I like: |
| ONE PROP I LIKE FROM: Josh Jacobs longest run OVER 16.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM): The Packers are playing a Saints team that is surrendering 134.4 rushing yards per game, which means Jacobs could be in line to have a big day on the ground. Jacobs' longest run has gone over 16.5 yards in six of the Packers' past eight games. Not to mention, there's going to be frigid temperatures in Green Bay tonight. If the Packers jump out to a big lead, I could see the Saints defense wilting in the second half, which could lead to a few big runs for Jacobs. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Blake Grupe OVER 4.5 points (-120 at BetMGM): I don't love this prop, but this is the lowest point total I've ever seen for an NFL kicker, so I'm going to roll with it and say Grupe hits the over. Saints QB Spencer Rattler has started three games this year and Grupe went over 4.5 points in two of those. Also, Rattler played the second half against the Commanders in Week 15 and Grupe went over 4.5 points during just Rattler's two quarters on the field. The Saints offense might not do much tonight, but I think Grupe can get hit the over here. |
| And in case you're wondering, my props are now 39-29 on the season (20-12 on kicker props and 19-17 on all other props). |
| The guys over at SportsLine also have a full betting preview that you can check out here. |
| Of course, we also have some picks for tonight, so let's get to those. |
PACKERS-SAINTS PICKS
My pick: Packers 34-13 over Saints
Dubin's pick: Packers 30-6 over Saints
Prisco's pick: Packers 31-19 over Saints |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our eight NFL experts are unanimously taking the Packers to win and seven of are taking the Packers to cover as a 14-point favorite. |
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| 6. NFL playoff picture heading into Monday night |
| We usually wait until Tuesday to break down the playoff picture, but we're going one day early this week because there's a lot to cover. There are only 33 games left in the regular season and that number will be going down by one after the Packers face the Saints tonight. |
| Here's a look at the top seven teams from each conference: |
AFC
1. Chiefs (Clinched AFC West): 14-1
2. Bills (Clinched AFC East): 12-3
3. Steelers (AFC North leader): 10-5
4. Texans (Clinched AFC South): 9-6
5. Ravens: 10-5
6. Chargers: 9-6
7. Broncos: 9-6
First teams out: Colts (7-8), Dolphins (7-8), Bengals (7-8)
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs, Bills, Texans
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers, Ravens |
| AFC Breakdown |
| The Broncos and Chargers can both clinch a playoff spot by winning just one of their final two games. The Chargers close out with the Patriots and Raiders while the Broncos finish with the Bengals and Chiefs. On the Chargers' end, it feels like a lock that they'll win one of those two games. As for the Broncos, they'll definitely have a close eye on Kansas City's Christmas game against the Steelers. If the Chiefs win, they'll clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and if that happens, Kansas City will likely rest its starters against the Broncos in Week 18. In that scenario, the Broncos could lose to the Bengals this Saturday and still get in by beating the Chiefs' backups. The AFC North is also up for grabs. The Ravens close with the Texans and Browns while the Steelers will be facing the Chiefs and Bengals over the final two weeks. The Ravens have a much easier schedule, which gives them a much better chance of winning the division. The Colts, Bengals and Dolphins are longshots to make the playoffs at this point, but they're not dead. The Colts will be rooting for the Broncos to lose out and if that happens, Indy will have to win out, but they'll also need the Bengals OR Dolphins to win out so there's a three-way tie at 9-8 (That would negate Denver's head-to-head win over Indy). The Bengals need to win out, plus they need Denver to lose out AND they need the Dolphins and Colts to both lose one of their final two games. The Dolphins need to win out plus they need the Chargers OR Broncos to finish 9-8, and if that happens, they also need the Colts to lose one of their final two games. |
NFC
1. Lions (NFC North leader): 13-2
2. Eagles (NFC East leader): 12-3
3. Rams (NFC West leader): 9-6
4. Falcons (NFC South leader): 8-7
5. Vikings: 13-2
6. Packers: 10-4
7. Commanders: 10-5
First teams out: Buccaneers (8-7), Seahawks (8-7)
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Eagles, Vikings |
| NFC Breakdown |
| Although Jalen Hurts was knocked out of Sunday's game with a concussion, the Eagles still have a strong shot to win the NFC East, even if he has to miss any time. All they have to do is win one of their final two games (Cowboys, Giants). In the NFC West, the Rams just need to win one more game to clinch; they play the Cardinals and Seahawks over the final two weeks. As we mentioned, the Packers can clinch a playoff spot tonight by beating the Saints. The Vikings are still alive for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the NFC North title, but they'll have to beat the Packers in Week 17 to keep those hopes alive. The Lions will be playing the 49ers in Week 17 before Detroit and Minnesota face each other in Week 18. The biggest loser of Week 16 was the Buccaneers, who lost a shocker to the Cowboys. With the loss, the Bucs are no longer in control of the NFC South. If the Bucs win out, though -- they play the Panthers and Saints -- they would just need the Falcons to slip up once (Atlanta closes the season with Washington and Carolina). The Falcons and Commanders will be playing each other in Week 17 on Sunday night. If the Commanders win, they'll clinch a playoff berth, but if the Falcons pull off the upset, that could open the door for the Falcons and Buccaneers to both make the playoffs. |
| If you want a full look at the NFL playoff picture, we've got it right here. |
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