Every Day is the Best Day to Buy Bitcoin

For most retail investors, bitcoin’s recent prices have caught them by surprise.

Sure, they had been watching the price slowly rise, but who could have expected the explosive 50% rise in price from $44k → $69k YTD.

Now you, dear reader, would be well aware of what is going on (assuming you have opened and read these emails).

That’s because we’ve been pounding the table… explaining that everything that caused crypto to crash was behind us. The future was bright.

For example, on November 23, 2022, when headlines were screaming about the death of crypto, we wrote the following:

On that day, bitcoin was trading below $16,000. Since then?

What’s next for crypto prices? In the short term, your guess is as good as ours. It’s the long run that we are focused on.

But with bitcoin prices touching all time highs and memecoins skyrocketing in price, it’s important to think clearly.

Don’t chase prices. Don’t give in to FOMO. Don’t be a part of what Travis Kling is calling Financial Nihilism.

Buy what you know and sit back. This is a long game.

New ATH. Now What?

As we all know by now, bitcoin broke its all-time high (so we think). This happened yesterday, rising a few hundred dollars above $69,000. Shortly after, the celebrations came to a screeching halt as liquidations started to hit. Bitcoin fell 14% off the new all-time high, hitting prices not seen in three days.

But it's all probably fine, with Bitcoin recovering to ~$67,000 today… and perhaps gearing up for another breakout. 👀

Analyzing Breakouts

Historically, surpassing all-time highs has been the ultimate prelude to significant Bitcoin rallies. Just take a look at these numbers @DylanLeclair_ pointed out:

Some napkin math: The average time it takes bitcoin to double after hitting a new all-time high is ~32 days.

That means if history repeats itself, we could see $132k BTC by next month.

Market Sentiment:

As we’ve discussed in previous issues, this rally seems a bit muted with less hysteria overall. And that’s because, unlike past cycles, the retail crowd doesn’t seem to be doing much of the legwork. Rather, it’s the institutions via the ETFs.

This is evident when looking at several alternative data points:

Another under-discussed aspect of this bull cycle is the noticeable decrease in marketing spend within the crypto industry. Speaking from our own experience as publishers reliant on advertising revenue, we've observed a significant downturn in marketing budgets (Sponsors reach out here!).

With fewer promotional efforts by startups to attract new users, the potential influx of newcomers into the crypto space, and by extension, their impact on the market price, might partially explain the lack of hype.

Either way, this muted sentiment – despite us being at another all-time high – suggests a different kind of bull market, potentially driven by institutional investment through ETFs rather than retail FOMO.

Update on MVRV:

We can’t talk about price breakouts without mentioning where we’re at on the MVRV scale. This metric, which we constantly circle back to, offers a window into the perceived overvaluation or undervaluation of Bitcoin at any given point.

Currently, the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio sits just above 3. That means, in aggregate, hodlers are up 3x on unrealized profits. This MVRV region is historically the goldilocks zone from which parabolic moves begin to develop.

In other words, at a ~3 MVRV, we’re getting real close to a potential euphoric breakout. The fact that we’re at an all-time high and we haven’t even hit an MVRV over 3.5 looks extremely bullish in the short-term.

So, what should you do? Tell all your cousins and uncles who have held the bag since the last run to keep hodling.

The retail FOMO crowd, if anything, is just starting to boil – not bubble. Crazy insanity price movement – not just new all-time highs – could be on the horizon.

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