Builder Confidence Lowest in Nearly a Year, But Lower Rates Could Change Things

The National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo releases the results of a survey of NAHB members each month regarding the health of the homebuilding sector. While officially referred to as the Housing Market Index (or HMI), the headline number is essentially "builder confidence." After rising steadily from the end of 2022 through July, confidence has been in a tailspin across all categories. Viewed against the backdrop of mortgage rates, it's impossible to miss the general symmetry between higher rates and lower confidence. As rising rates gathered steam in the summer months it's not a huge surprise to see a reversal in the HMI. Now in the most recent report (the one released today), builders were responding to the survey just as rates were flirting with 8%, but before this week's CPI helped get us more than halfway back to 7%. By no means can we conclude that a few weeks of stellar rate improvements will be enough to turn builders' frowns upside down, but it's safer to expect such things if the rate trend continues. The point for today is that this particular survey comes at just about the worst possible time for a data series that has recently been almost exclusively a function of rates.

November 16, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Builder Confidence Lowest in Nearly a Year, But Lower Rates Could Change Things The National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo releases the results of a survey of NAHB members each month regarding the health of the homebuilding sector. While officially referred to as the Housing Market Index (or HMI), the headlin... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Drop Back in Line With Recent Lows After a fantastic day on Tuesday and frustrating little bounce after yesterday's Retail Sales data, mortgage rates have fully recovered back to the recent lows. Any time rates move enough to merit a discussion, it coincides with a similar move in th... (read more) MBS Commentary Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade. Justification was adequate, with Retail Sales coming in 0.2 higher than expected, but the imp... (read more) Rob Chrisman Underwriting, Outsourcing, CRM, POS Products; IMB earnings for Q3 “Every disaster movie starts with the government ignoring a scientist.” Vendors and lenders can’t ignore red ink. Here in Kansas City, one of the discussion topics is how relationships are important during these days when the balance sheets of many l... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.36% -0.09% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.36% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% -0.17 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.71% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.75% -0.09 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.95% -0.14 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.73% -0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% -0.17% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.44% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.76% -0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/16 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.61% -0.25 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% -0.16 0.88 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.58% -0.22 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/8 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.72 +0.41 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.72 +0.41 UMBS 6.5 101.19 +0.28 GNMA 6.0 100.14 +0.31 GNMA 6.5 101.27 +0.16 Pricing as of: 11/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4390 -0.0980 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.846 -0.070 5 YR Treasury 4.422 -0.102 7 YR Treasury 4.459 -0.103 10 YR Treasury 4.439 -0.098 30 YR Treasury 4.617 -0.080 Pricing as of: 11/16 5:31PM EST Latest Video Property Brothers: There's still money to be made in the real estate busine... Fed Governor Lisa Cook: A soft landing is possible but not assured The deficit would still be wide even if rates went down, says CBO Director ... Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Monetary policy is in a good place Around the Web CNBC The market thinks the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively. Investors could be in for a letdown CNBC Fed's Mester wants 'much more evidence' that inflation has been defeated Marketwatch Jobless claims climb to three-month high of 231,000 in sign labor market is cooling Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP YoY CNBC U.S. crude prices fall nearly 4% as inventories rise Eye on Housing Builder Sentiment Down Again, but Better Building Conditions are in View Eye on Housing Multifamily Developer Confidence Comes in Weak in Third Quarter on Financing Concerns CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook CFPB CFPB Fines Repeat Offender Enova $15 Million for Violating Order, Deceiving Customers, and Withdrawing Funds Without Consent Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.6% in October Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October CNBC CNBC Daily Open: Rate cuts might not be in the cards despite cooling inflation Eye on Housing Lumber and Steel Products Lead Building Materials Prices Lower

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