| | | | Tuesday, May 13, 2025 | | Ranking relief pitchers can be tough for about a thousand reasons. We're dealing with small sample sizes all the way around with relievers, and we aren't just trying to determine how good a given pitcher is, but also how much trust his manager has in him when things go poorly. | | Bullpen changes tend to come in waves throughout the season, and we might be in another change-wave these days. On Monday, the Rangers might have been forced into a change, as Luke Jackson was hit by a line-drive comebacker and had to be relieved by Jacob Webb – who allowed a hit and walk but otherwise converted his first save of the season. Of course, that doesn't mean Webb is likely to be the next man up for the Rangers – Chris Martin has been the team's best high-leverage reliever this season, but he had already pitched in a setup role before Jackson exited Monday. If you're betting on anyone in the Rangers bullpen getting the next save, the smart money has to be on Martin – though we also said the smart money was on Martin entering the season as the closer, and Bruce Bochy had other designs. | | Hence why it's so tough to predict these things. | | On Monday, Scott White wrote a Bullpen Report column for CBSSports.com where he looked into the most in-flux situations around the majors to try to get a sense for how things might shake out moving forward, so before we get to the rest of Monday's action around MLB, let's take a quick look at Scott's projected hierarchy for three other bullpen situations around baseball – players are listed in order of how Scott ranks the pitchers, not necessarily by who is most likely to get the next save (though those two usually overlap): | | | | Giants: Ryan Walker, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers – "Since I'm only theorizing at this point, the pecking order remains the same, but the likelihood of a change (and of Doval's effectiveness in that scenario) means both relievers need to be rostered in leagues where saves are scarce."Pirates: David Bednar, Dennis Santana – " The Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton on Thursday, and new manager Don Kelly apparently sees the bullpen differently [than Shelton did]. Santana worked the ninth inning in all three games over weekend, including once for a save, once with a one-run deficit, and once to preserve a tie. Those are all situations in which a team might deploy its closer, and even more telling is that Bednar worked the eighth innings in two of those games."Cubs: Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Daniel Palencia – " A big reason why the Cubs want to give Pressly more consistent work, according to pitching coach Tommy Hottovoy, is so he can work through the mechanical issues that have caused his swinging-strike rate to collapse. It currently sits at 6.4 percent or roughly half of what it was last year, which was already a steep decline from the year before. Hottovoy thinks it's less a matter of diminished stuff than Pressly failing to hide the ball properly. So it sounds like the Cubs are still willing to give Pressly save chances as he works through this issue, provided he's actually getting to work." | | Here's what else you need to know about from Monday's MLB action, beginning with another exciting prospect call-up – though one whose immediate role is in question: | | Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets | | Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs (13%) – Ballesteros is expected to get the call Tuesday, per multiple reports, and he is an exciting prospect. He is hitting .368/.420/.522 in 35 games to open the season at Triple-A, with a sub-11% strikeout rate and surprisingly strong 91.7 mph average exit velocity. But here's the problem: Where is he supposed to play? The Cubs have Carson Kelly enjoying an unbelievable start to the season, while Miguel Amaya has an .815 OPS after going 3 for 3 with a pair of doubles Monday. Both were in the lineup Monday, and it's not like Ian Happ's trip to the IL really opens an everyday spot for one of the three catchers – Seiya Suzuki was in at left field to allow Kelly to play DH Monday. Ballesteros has limited experience playing first base, but it probably isn't an ideal spot for the 5-foot-8 Ballesteros, who has never played another position as a professional. Michael Busch has some experience playing third base, but has logged just one-third of an inning there since joining the Cubs last season, so are they really going to move him there for Ballesteros? Life (uh) finds a way, but I wish I was more excited about Ballesteros' promotion. Right now, it looks like he's just an add in deeper, two-catcher leagues, and now much more. | | Trent Grisham, OF, Yankees (58%) – At some point, it just gets hard to remain skeptical of Grisham, who just continues to crush the ball. He went deep two more times Monday against the Mariners , giving him four homers in May and 12 for the season, just five short of his career high. And the underlying data totally backs it up – his .419 wOBA entering play Monday was backed up by a .398 expected mark, a 92nd-percentile showing. Grisham's track record makes it hard to buy in fully, but he sure looks to have taken a big step forward, he's playing every day, and he has cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10 points, fixing arguably the biggest flaw in his game. I suspect Grisham will slow down eventually, but he might just be this year's Jurickson Profar. | | Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (58%) – First impressions are hard to shake, and Winn left an awful one this season when he started out the season 0 for 18 with eight strikeouts in his first five games – and it seemed especially concerning coming off a spring where he hit .080 with a 29% strikeout rate. But it turns out that may not have mattered. Since those first five games, Winn is hitting .307 with a 23% strikeout rate, with a 25-homer, 112-run pace. He's back up near the top of the order and it seems like the breakout we were hoping for is here. | | | | Monday's standouts | | Tanner Houck, Red Sox @DET: 2.1 IP, 9 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 0 K – Houck has put together two of the worst starts in the history of the Red Sox organization, and if you were unlucky – yeah, let's call it "unlucky …" – enough to have him in your lineup, he's absolutely wrecked your ratios. In one league where I was unlucky enough to start him for both 11-run outings, he has single-handedly (doublehandedly?) taken my ERA from 3.71 to 4.30 with just those two starts. I foolishly held on to Houck when he showed increased velocity over the past couple of starts, and that was clearly a mistake. He's been pretty bad for most of the past year, and at this point, he's one of the easiest drops in Fantasy. We should've done it weeks ago. | | Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – It's just a little bit concerning that Sanchez's control has taken a bit of a hit since his forearm scare, with his walk rate up to 12.7% over the past three starts. It's only three walks per start over three starts, so it's not like he's totally lost it. But Sanchez's improved command was a big part of his breakthrough last season, and it's frustrating to see him backsliding a bit here. I'm not too worried about it, but it does make me moderately less confident that his breakout will prove sustainable. | | Freddy Peralta, Brewers @CLE: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Peralta didn't pitch especially well in this one, but he probably didn't deserve all four of those runs, either – Peralta gave up a bases-clearing double with the bases loaded to Gabriel Arias that Jackson Chourio just misplayed for what should have been an inning-ending fly out. Again, he didn't pitch well – the bases were loaded, after all – but the line doesn't reflect that. | | Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals @PHI: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Given the tough matchup, this is a pretty good start. The low strikeout number is disappointing, but it came with 11 whiffs on 80 pitches, so even that isn't much of a knock against him. Liberatore's strikeout rate hasn't been great, but his control has been (1.4 BB/9), which has helped the overall package play up. I'm inclined to view Liberatore as a sell-high candidate in the same way Ranger Suarez was a sell-high candidate this time last year, but I also think he'll be fairly useful moving forward. | | Tyler Mahle , Rangers vs. COL: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Now, if you're looking for someone who could have the bottom fall out, it's Mahle. His strikeout rate is 19.6%, a below-average mark, while his walk rate is merely average, which is putting a lot of pressure on Mahle to generate excellent results on balls in play. That feels like a bad bet to make for a guy whose expected wOBA on contact for his career is exactly average. I think Mahle's likeliest outcome is a high-3.00s ERA, which has its uses, but with his injury history and sub-1.50 ERA, Mahle feels like one of the most obvious sell-high candidates in the league right now. | | Grant Holmes, Braves vs. WAS: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – It's always something different for Holmes. Lately, he's been limiting walks incredibly well (just four in his past three starts combined), but the strikeouts have been inconsistent. I think the problem is … he's just not that good. I don't think Holmes is bad, but his 4.14 ERA is backed up with mediocre peripherals. His fastball is mediocre overall, and his curveball and soldier have both taken marginal steps back from last season (when he mostly pitched in relief). Holmes will have useful stretches against the right matchups, but I think the hopes that he would take a big step forward and be a true breakout don't look especially likely to come true moving forward. He's a must-roster pitcher in points leagues, but I think Holmes is pretty fringey in Roto. | | David Peterson, Mets vs. PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Peterson can take advantage of a good matchup, but he just doesn't generate strikeouts consistently enough to be much more than a streamer against the right matchups. He's another pitcher who should be useful but is by no means a must-start pitcher, either. | | Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks @SF: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Kelly is on a nice little roll here, with three or fewer runs allowed in seven starts in a row since his April 3 disaster against the Yankees. Still, his xERA for the season is almost exactly in line with last season's 4.94 mark, and while Kelly has shown some ability to outpitch his peripherals in his career – 3.83 career ERA compared to a 4.48 xERA – even that amount of overperformance would put him in the low-4.00s range. Which is right where he ended up last season. I don't expect much more than that from Kelly, who is pretty much the definition of a fringe Fantasy option. | | Jackson Jobe, Tigers vs. BOS: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 K – Even the good starts aren't actually that promising. The 15 whiffs are a great sign from Jobe, but then there are the five walks. Jobe's command just isn't very good, and he isn't really fooling hitters, who mostly just don't chase when he throws it out of the strike zone and don't miss when he throws it in the zone. Jobe still has plenty of upside, but we've seen very little evidence of it in his first real taste of the majors, so if we're hanging on to Jobe – and I generally prefer to if I can – it's mostly as a blind faith, bench stash. | | Chase Dollander,Rockies vs. TEX: 6 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Yeah, everything I said about Jobe pretty much applies to Dollander, except he also plays half his games in the worst pitching environment in baseball, backed up by the worst team in baseball. Dollander could have some upside in the long run, but right now, it looks like he's a long way from figuring it out. And I don't have any faith in the Rockies maximizing his raw talent. | | Colin Rea, Cubs vs. MIA: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Rea was an obvious stream this week with matchups against the Marlins and White Sox coming, and I do expect him to fair well against the White Sox later this week. His next matchup after that isn't terrible, but I don't think I want to start him in Cincinnati if I can help it. But he's likely to get the whiff-happy Reds in Chicago after that, so I think we can hang on to Rea for a few more starts before letting him go back on the wire. | | News and notes | | Ronald Acuña is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment in the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday. There isn't a timeline for how long he'll rehab, but my guess is they'll want to get him at least a full typical Spring Training's worth of at-bats, so we're probably looking at a multi-week rehab stint. He'll really be on the verge of being activated once he's called up to Triple-A. | | Spencer Strider is scheduled to throw 70-75 pitches in a sim game Wednesday, and he could be activated from the IL after that. | | Logan Gilbert is scheduled to throw a bullpen Tuesday. He's on the IL with a right elbow flexor strain but seems to be making good progress. | | George Kirby is expected to make another rehab start at Triple-A Friday and will likely need at least one or two more after that before coming back from his shoulder injury. | | Corey Seager is likely headed back to the IL with that right hamstring injury. As expected, the Rangers recalled Jake Burger from Triple-A. | | Jackson Merrill was back in the lineup after missing Sunday with an illness. | | Jose Altuve returned to the lineup Monday. | | Oneil Cruz has missed two straight with lower-back tightness. | | Brandon Woodruff won't be reinstated this week as he's now dealing with right ankle tendonitis. My expectations for Woodruff's comeback attempt have been low all along, and they certainly aren't any higher after this. | | Ben Lively left his start Monday due to right forearm inflammation. | | Jose Quintana felt shoulder soreness after his last start. He plans to throw a bullpen Wednesday and if that goes well, start Friday against the Twins. I'd try to avoid him for that one if I can. | | Justin Martinez will throw to live hitters Wednesday after a successful bullpen this past weekend. He could be back a lot sooner than expected, so Shelby Miller might only have another week or so in the closer's role if Martinez can avoid a setback. | | AJ Puk is expected to begin a throwing program in the coming week. He's on the 60-day IL with elbow inflammation. | | The Guardians optioned Brayan Rocchio to Triple-A. Gabriel Arias started at shortstop with Daniel Schneeman at second Monday. | | Pretty nasty injury late in that Yankees game, Oswaldo Cabrera had to be driven off the field in an ambulance with a leg injury. It sounds like DJ LeMahieu might be back this week, but he needs to prove he has something left before any Fantasy players buy-in. | | | | | | | | PGA Championship | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch as McIlroy aims for back-to-back major championships, Scheffler tries to stay hot and the rest of an elite field competes at Quail Hollow. Watch the third and final round of the PGA Championship at 1 ET this Saturday and Sunday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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