The TACO trade is back! Many Asia-Pacific stock markets are rising today, despite Donald Trump’s decision to ramp up his trade war by announcing new tariffs on 14 US trading partners.
There’s relief that Trump has announced a new pause before these new levies kick in – a new three-week reprieve kicks the can down the road to 1 August, rather than tomorrow.
This delay will give countries to negotiate trade deals with the US.
Asked if 1 August deadline was firm, Trump indicated it wasn’t exactly concrete, saying last night: “I would say firm, but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say we’d like to do something a different way, we’re going to be open to that.”
That has encouraged traders to conclude that Trump always chickens out (TACO).
So while there were losses on Wall Street last night after the first tariff letters were released, markets across Asia are taking the news in their stride.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 2225 has risen by 0.3%, up 118 points to 39,705 points, even though Japan has been threatened with a new 25% tariff from 1 August (slightly higher than the 24% rate announced back in April, before Trump’s 90-day pause which expires tomorrow).
South Korea’s Kospi has gained nearly 2%, even though Seoul has also received a letter announcing a new 25% tariff.
China’s CSI300 index has climbed by 0.8%. European markets are expected to open flat.
More letters are expected to be sent later this week.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says traders are pricing in “delay, maybe even dysfunction”, rather than a resolution of the trade war. But that’s enough to keep them bidding.
Innes writes: "Markets didn’t lurch because they’ve seen this show before. Tariff hike, rhetoric spikes, and then – like clockwork – comes the sudden pivot: 'We’re still open to talks.' This is policy by poker tell. And by now, investors are familiar enough with the bluff to call it and fade the fear."
However, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, fears there is too much “unexplained optimism”, adding: "The deadline extension is not good news, per se. It simply adds to the uncertainty. It’s yet another sign that the deadline won’t be a line in the sand, and that tariffs set in the coming days and weeks won’t be carved in stone, either.
"They will be constantly changed – raised, lowered – and used as a go-to threat in every situation."
The agenda
• 9.30am BST: UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility to release its latest fiscal risks and sustainability report
• 10am BST: Marks & Spencer chair Archie Norman to face business and trade committee to discuss M&S’s cyber-attack
• 11am BST: Office for Budget Responsibility press conference
• 12pm BST: Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry to release volume one of its final report
We'll be tracking all the main events throughout the day … |
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