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The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, as it continues to pull away from last year’s shallow recession. That’s a slight slowdown on the first quarter, where the economy expanded by 0.7%, but still a healthy growth rate – and in line with expectations. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the services sector drove growth, while manufacturing and construction both shrank slightly. Today’s GDP report also shows the economy did not grow in June, the ONS reports, following growth of 0.4% in May. Digging into the details… services output fell by 0.1% in June, while production output grew by 0.8% in the month, and construction output grew by 0.5%. The UK economy is in "good health", says Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. Following this morning’s Q2 GDP report, Birrell says:“The Bank of England is in the nice position, unlike other central banks, of having a level of surety in the data it is seeing, when setting policy. With inflation playing ball as well, the path to lower interest rates looks to be set, the timing of the cuts is now the focus.” The UK has grown at a faster pace this year than many forecasters predicted, in a development likely to be seized on by the shadow chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, as evidence that the previous government had helped the economy to turn a corner. However, it comes after a lacklustre performance over the past decade, while high living costs, elevated interest rates, and faltering productivity gains keep a lid on momentum. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has targeted rebooting the economy as Labour’s No 1 priority, arguing that stronger growth would help boost living standards and raise more tax revenue to repair battered public services. The UK has now grown “strongly” for two quarters in a row, says ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown: “The UK economy has now grown strongly for two quarters, following the weakness we saw in the second half of last year.“ "Growth across the three months was led by the service sector, where scientific research, the IT industry and legal services all did well. “In June, growth was flat with services falling, due to a weak month for health, retailing and wholesaling, offset by widespread growth in manufacturing.” Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, says: “After a strong performance in May, a slowdown in GDP growth was always on the cards for June. But a second successive quarter of above-trend growth suggests the UK economy has finally shaken off its slumber of recent years.“ When you adjust for population changes, growth was less vigorous. The ONS reports that real GDP per head is estimated to have risen by 0.3% in Quarter 2 2024 – only half as fast as the headline growth rate for the quarter. Real GDP per head is 0.1% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP per head, or per capita, is commonly used as a broad measure of average living standards or economic well-being. The agenda • 7am BST: UK GDP report for June • 7am BST: UK trade report for June • 7am BST: UK GDP report for Q2 2024 • 9am BST: Norwegian central bank interest rate decision • 9.30am BST: UK labour productivity statistics • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims • 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for July We’ll be tracking all the main events throughout the day ... |
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A staple of dystopian science fictions is an inner sanctum of privilege and an outer world peopled by the desperate poor. The insiders, living off the exploited labour of the outlands, are indifferent to the horrors beyond their walls. As environmental breakdown accelerates, the planet itself is being treated as the outer world. A rich core extracts wealth from the periphery, often with horrendous cruelty, while the insiders turn their eyes from the human and environmental costs. The periphery becomes a sacrifice zone. Those in the core shrink to their air-conditioned offices. At the Guardian, we seek to break out of the core and the mindset it cultivates. Guardian journalists tell the stories the rest of the media scarcely touch: stories from the periphery, such as David Azevedo, who died as a result of working on a construction site during an extreme heat wave in France. Or the people living in forgotten, “redlined” parts of US cities that, without the trees and green spaces of more prosperous suburbs, suffer worst from the urban heat island effect. Exposing the threat of the climate emergency – and the greed of those who enable it – is central to the Guardian’s mission. But this is a collective effort – and we need your help. If you can afford to fund the Guardian’s reporting, as a one-off payment or from just £4 per month, it will help us to share the truth about the influence of the fossil fuel giants and those that do their bidding. Among the duties of journalism is to break down the perceptual walls between core and periphery, inside and outside, to confront power with its impacts, however remote they may seem. This is what we strive to do. Thank you. | Support the Guardian |
George Monbiot, Guardian columnist |
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