| | | | Wednesday, November 9, 2022 | | We've probably received more questions about Jonathan Taylor than any other player over the past week, with some variation of, "Should I try to get something for him now while I can?" being the prevailing sentiment. And it's definitely a sentiment I understand: You paid so much for Taylor in drafts, and you'd rather get something for him than watch him turn into a non-entity for Fantasy down the stretch. With the Colts looking like a disaster right now and Taylor nursing a lingering ankle injury, it seems entirely possible that's what could happen. | | But it isn't a fait accompli. Maybe the Colts will opt to shut Taylor down, but I have a hard time believing interim coach Jeff Saturday, in his first ever high-level coaching opportunity, is going to welcome a tank the way some think he might. If Taylor is able to play, I'm going to guess they're going to play him, and I'm going to guess he's going to remain the focal point of the offense. | | True, it may be a bad offense, but Taylor is still averaging 88.8 total yards from scrimmage in what has been a pretty bad offense all season long, so I'm not sure that'd be enough to make him a Fantasy non-entity. If he's healthy enough to play, I'm going to have a hard time not ranking Taylor as an RB1 – it just might be as a low-end RB1 rather than, you know, the RB1. | | Which is all to say, I don't think it makes much sense to just move Taylor for the sake of moving him. His value has never been lower than it is right now, so if you're moving him for someone like D'Onta Foreman, it just isn't worth it. If you could get Dameon Pierce , that probably makes more sense – Pierce isn't nearly as talented as Taylor and is in a terrible offense of his own, but at least he's healthy right now. That's enough to make that a trade worth doing, though I think you're sacrificing some possible upside. | | If you're thinking about trading Taylor, at the very least, make sure you consult Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart to see how you should be valuing him. And I spoke with Dave on today's Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast about Taylor's trade value and asked him for some buy-low and sell-high candidates in trades, so make sure you check that out -- plus, today's newsletter has more trade targets for you to consider this week. | | But first, let's check out Heath Cummings' position previews for Week 10: | | | 🔍Week 10 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | "I'm always more skeptical of matchups than most, at least as it pertains to Fantasy Football projections. A big part of that is injuries, and how teams evolve over the course of a season. Week 10 provides at least three examples of teams that we really shouldn't be too confident in either way when it comes to matchups.
"The first is Kirk Cousins against the Buffalo Bills . When healthy, the Bills have one of the best defenses in the league and Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback all season who has scored 20 Fantasy points against them. At the same time, Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer both missed Week 9 and are uncertain for Week 10." | On a bye: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones , Zach Wilson
Injuries: Josh Allen (elbow), Ryan Tannehill (ankle), Matt Ryan (shoulder) and Carson Wentz (finger).Number to know: 2.5% -- Tom Brady 's touchdown rate still hasn't rebounded. This is just the second year of his career below a four percent rate. I will continue to bet on regression.Matchup that matters: Trevor Lawrence @KC (26th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: " Jimmy Garoppolo . Garoppolo has been a borderline starter for the past month and we still haven't seen him with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk all 100% at the same time. We should get our first look in Week 10 against a Chargers defense that has been a mixed bag against quarterbacks this season. The 49ers should be able to run all over the Chargers, which is a little scary for Garoppolo but also increases his touchdown upside."Stash: "Deshaun Watson. Watson is still a couple of weeks away from returning, but he has top-five upside when he comes back and we're close enough to his return to stash him, especially if your QB has already had his bye." | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | "We've become comfortable with the idea of running back committees by now. But even in a league full of committees, the Lions' situation has become unique.
"For one thing, D'Andre Swift has had a terrible time staying healthy and the only thing that has saved his Fantasy managers was some insane efficiency early in the year. . And yet, with all those moves, it's hard to find anyone who came out ahead for Fantasy purposes." | On a bye: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, Michael Carter, James Robinson, Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake.Injuries: Aaron Jones (ankle), Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Ezekiel Elliott (knee), Damien Harris (illness), Gus Edwards (hamstring), Chuba Hubbard (ankle), J.K. Dobbins (knee), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Joshua Kelley (knee), Kyren Williams (ankle), Mark Ingram (knee), J.D. McKissic (neck) and Damien Williams (ribs). Number to know: 27 -- Jeff Wilson saw 27 snaps in Week 9 to Raheem Mostert's 24. He also out-touched Mostert 12 to 9.
Matchup that matters: David Montgomery vs. DET (20th vs. RB)Waiver add: "Latavius Murray. Murray has scored a touchdown in three of four games with the Broncos, and I don't believe Chase Edmonds is a threat to that role. There isn't a running back on the waiver wire who I want to start this week, but Murray is the closest."Stash: " Rachaad White. This run offense is too bad to start two running backs for Tampa, but White is slowly taking more and more work, and there's some speculation the lead role could be his sooner rather than later." | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | "We generally use 65% roster rate as the cut off for waiver wire sections and Darnell Mooney is rostered in 66% of league as of Tuesday evening. It should go without saying that he's a must-add, even if I wouldn't call him a must-start just yet.
"For now, I think you should view Mooney as a mid-range No. 3 wide receiver on a weekly basis. Since Justin Fields took off in Week 5, Mooney has performed as WR33." | On a bye: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd , Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson.Injuries: Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Ja'Marr Chase (hip), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Mike Williams (ankle), Romeo Doubs (ankle), Marquise Brown (foot), DeVante Parker (knee), Josh Reynolds (back), Corey Davis (knee), Jahan Dotson (hamstring), Marquise Goodwin (groin), Nico Collins (groin), Russell Gage (hamstring), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Treylon Burks (toe), Christian Watson (chest), Randall Cobb (ankle), D.J. Chark (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee) and Noah Brown (foot).Number to know: 75 -- Combined receiving yards for Michael Pittman in two games with Sam Ehlinger under center.
Matchup that matters: Christian Kirk @KC (19th vs. WR) Waiver add: " Mecole Hardman. What Hardman has done over the past three weeks feels very much like what Clyde Edwards-Helaire was doing at the start of the season. For the most part, the role and the volume do not seem like a Fantasy starter, but the offense is so good that you can ride the hot streak for as long as it lasts. On the optimistic side, Hardman set season-highs in targets, catches, and yards in Week 9. On the other hand, Edwards-Helaire had 20 touches for 94 yards and two scores in Week 4 and has played fewer snaps in every subsequent game."Stash: "Wan'Dale Robinson. There's little doubt that Robinson is the Giants' most talented pass catcher and it's very common to see rookies get a boost in opportunity after the team's bye. A role worth 7-9 targets a week is still possible if everything clicks in the second half with Daniel Jones." | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "Cole Kmet didn't make my top-three tight waiver wire options below. It's not because I don't want to add him. It's partially because there are two really good options available, and also because I don't quite trust Kmet;'s volume there yet, especially with the possibility that Chase Claypool's role could grow. | | "Week 9 showed us the usage we need for Kmet -- six targets, five catches, 41 yards and a couple of touchdowns." | On a bye: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.Injuries: Mark Andrews (shoulder), Darren Waller (hamstring), David Njoku (ankle), Daniel Bellinger (eye) and Cameron Brate (neck).Number to know: 9 -- Despite joining the VIkings mid-week, T.J. Hockenson caught all nine of his targets for 70 yards.
Matchup that matters: Cade Otton vs. SEA (32nd vs. TE)Streamer: " Greg Dulcich. He's only played three weeks, but Dulcich currently ranks as TE3 on the season at 12.1 FPPG and he's only scored one touchdown. Russell Wilson seemed to really get going in the second half of the Broncos most recent game and that coincided with him targeting Dulcich. Hopefully the chemistry built over the bye and we see the rookie establish himself as the No. 2 option in the offense." | | *My TE Rankings | | Week 10 Trade Talk | | Looking to make a trade ahead of the stretch run? Make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart so you know how to make the right offers. | | Three to buy-low | | Chris Godwin – It's entirely possible Godwin just won't be healthy at any point this season, or maybe the Buccaneers offense is just irreparably broken. But you have a chance to trade for Chris Godwin – Chris Godwin! – coming off a stretch of four games where he is averaging nearly a dozen targets, and he'll cost you much less than a WR1. In his first two seasons with Tom Brady, Godwin averaged 2.27 and 1.94 PPR points per target; he's at 1.1 over the past four games. He's an obvious buy. | | Josh Jacobs – The past two games have been a bit frustrating for Jacobs, who looked like he was joining the ranks of the truly elite prior to that. He's starting to lose some of his vice grip on playing time, with 55% and 69% of the snaps in the past two games, and this Raiders offense just hasn't been as good as we thought it would be. Still, Week 7 was a blowout and he still got 20 of 23 RB touches in Week 8, so I'm not sure much has changed here from when things were going well besides some variances. Jacobs may not be a contender for the No. 1 RB spot, but I'm still viewing him as an RB1. | | Devonta Smith – Boom or bust wide receivers tend to be undervalued in Fantasy – just take a gander at Tyler Lockett's ADP compared to where he finishes every season in Fantasy for proof. Smith's past two games have been pretty disappointing – 7.3 and 4.2 PPR points – especially since A.J. Brown has been dominant and the Eagles offense generally has kept rolling. Smith is getting left behind, and there may be some concerns that is going to be the reality moving forward. More likely, Smith has just been on the bad side of variance lately, just like he was on the good side when he went for 44 yards on five targets but found the end zone in Week 6. Smith has four games with at least 15 PPR points, with as many as 28.9 in his best games. The down games are frustrating, but the upside is worth chasing if you can get Smith coming off the down games. | | One to buy-high | | Rondale Moore - Moore was forced to play most of his snaps on the outside of the formation in the first game with DeAndre Hopkins , and it was predictably terrible for his Fantasy value - 5-foot-7 wide receivers generally don't win on the outside in the NFL. In the past two games, however, Moore has been used much more often out of the slot, and he's responded with 15 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Moore looked like the perfect complement to Hopkins in this offense, an underneath-oriented receiver with big-play ability with the ball in his hands, and that's exactly what he's been when healthy this season - even including his one-catch showing in Week 7, Moore is averaging 13.3 PPR points per game over his past five; he's at 15.6 if you take out Week 7. I'm viewing him as pretty much a must-start WR2 in PPR scoring right now. | | Three to sell-high | | Tony Pollard – The Fantasy community wants to see Pollard get a significantly larger role, but even with Ezekiel Elliott out in Week 8, Pollard played 31 snaps – not far from his 29.5-snap average for the season. And Cowboys RB coach Skip Peete told reporters during the bye week, " I think that's probably his max as far as total play count." Peete continued: "When he had that long run on that third-and-1, as soon as he got to the sideline, he said, 'Coach, I'm done. I'm done for the game. Done. I got no more.'" Whether we like it or not, the Cowboys are committed to Elliott, who is expected back this week, and that should return Pollard to his complementary role. He's super-valuable for the Cowboys in that role, but he was averaging 10.2 PPR points per game prior to Elliott's injury. He's a supremely valuable handcuff, but it's worth seeing if someone might believe he's more than that. | | Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson had an awesome Week 9 in his return from the IR, but that was mostly because he got into the end zone twice. Without that, it was 53 yards from scrimmage on 14 touches while splitting touches with two other running backs. It's not unreasonable to think he played a somewhat limited 39% snap share because he was coming back from the injury, but I'm also concerned that might just be the norm moving forward. Patterson is a punishing, physical runner who notably broke down as last season went on and then made it through three games before getting hurt, and it might be in the Falcons best interest to keep him in a timeshare. He'll still be useful, but if someone in your league is viewing Week 9 as more of a floor than a ceiling outcome, it's a perfect time to try to move Patterson. | | Greg Dulcich – I think Dulcich is probably going to be a top 12 tight end the rest of the way, but it's worth keeping his impressive start in perspective. He has one game out of three with more than five targets, and while I love his 13.2-yard average depth of target, he probably won't be able to sustain his current 71% catch rate – league-wide, passes thrown between 12-14 yards down the field are caught 58% of the time. Dulcich might just be an outlier there, in which case, he might just be a top three tight end moving forward, but we've been fooled by that kind of talk before. He's good, but probably not great, and his value may never be higher. | | One to sell-low | | D'Onta Foreman – Foreman's Week 9 – 23 yards on seven carries, two catches for -2 yards – looked a lot more like what I expected to see from him than his massive Week 8. You can't discount that Foreman rushed for 118 yards in consecutive games, but this is still a bad offense, with Foreman expected to be in a timeshare with Chuba Hubbard likely back this week. Foreman can be useful in that context, but he's unlikely to be a must-start back, and very well could be completely irrelevant for Fantasy – remember how little we cared about the backs in Carolina when Christian McCaffrey was hurt last season. What's scary is, this offense might actually be even worse. | | | | | | | | Fantasy Football Today | | The Early Edge | Want to dominate your league and earn Fantasy Football bragging rights? 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