| | | | Tuesday, April 9, 2024 | | With so many pitcher injuries around baseball right now, I'm trying to figure out the best way to react as a Fantasy analyst. Scott White had some thoughts on what the latest injuries to Eury Perez, Shane Bieber, and Spencer Strider mean for the Fantasy landscape on Sunday, which you can check out here, and he focused mostly on what it means for those players, as well as what it might mean for Fantasy drafts next season. | | But I'm more trying to figure out how to approach the position right now. Or, rather, for the rest of the season, though I'm inclined to just treat "right now" and "the rest of the season" as more or less the same thing at this point. If every pitcher is going to get hurt, does it even make sense to worry about the long-term? Shouldn't we just live in the moment? | | That's an overreaction, but I do think there's something to be said for worrying about the long-term value of any given pitcher a lot less than what they're doing right now. Which is part of why I decided to be pretty aggressive with some of the early-season breakout pitchers out there, as I wrote Monday afternoon. I've moved Jared Jones, Bryce Miller, and Mackenzie Gore all into my top-48 pitcher rankings, pretty significant moves for all three after just two starts. | | You can read about my thoughts on that trio, what they've done so far to justify a move up, and why I'm willing to buy in when I'm usually fairly slow to move early-season breakouts up here. It may blow up in my face, of course; Jones may walk six in his next start, or Gore's velocity may collapse, or Miller's new splitter may stop being effective. But, with so much attrition at the position already – including a new elbow injury for Framber Valdez Monday, because why not – the best way to make it through this season might be to aggressively play the hot hand to try to replace the studs we've already lost – not to mention the ones we'll surely lose in the future. | | If you were able to add any of Jones, Gore, or Miller on the waiver-wire in the first couple of weeks, you've got pitchers I think can truly be difference makers this season. I don't necessarily see any similar difference makers on the wire Monday, unfortunately, but there are a few helpful pitchers out there from yesterday's action. In the rest of today's newsletter, we'll talk about some of those, and then break down all the rest of the news and performances you need to know about from Monday's action as we continue to try to pick up the pieces from a tough start to the season. | | | | Monday's top waiver targets | | | | Tyler Anderson, SP, Angels (26%) – Even when he's at his best, as he was Monday, Anderson is never an especially exciting pitcher. He had just three strikeouts Monday against the Rays despite throwing seven shutout innings, for example. However, he's doing his crafty best so far, limiting hard contact and walks, just like he did when he was very good in 2022 with the Dodgers. His team context is not nearly as valuable as it was back then, but we've seen this formula work for Anderson in the recent past. | | Spencer Turnbull, SP, Phillies (49%) – Turnbull joined the sweeper revolution this spring, and so far it looks like a legitimate weapon for him. He's racked up a bunch of weak contact through his first two starts, and Monday against the Cardinals he used it as his primary pitch, throwing it 38% of the time and picking up six swinging strikes with it. It's been a few years since we've had much occasion to be interested in Turnbull, but with 13 strikeouts to one walk in his first 11 innings this season, maybe this new pitch is a good reason to pay attention. I'd be surprised if he was a must-start pitcher moving forward, but we can't ignore him after this start. | | Will Benson, OF, Reds (55%) – Benson hits the ball hard, he's a very good athlete, and he's playing a lot in a very good home park thanks to a bunch of injuries on the Reds roster. He's also striking out entirely too much, sporting a 36% strikeout rate through his first 39 plate appearances, which isn't ideal. Still, it's a very Fantasy friendly profile, as shown by his homer-and-steal combo Monday, and he could legitimately be a 20-homer, 30-steal guy if he plays every day this season. | | | | Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers (64%) – I've mostly written about Turang as a speed specialist, but it's worth considering that he might be a bit more than that. He had three hard-hit balls Monday, including his first homer of the season. Turang is never going to be a power hitter, but he has upped his average exit velocity to 89.2 mph this season from 85.5 mph in 2023, and he was pretty consistently an average-or-better hitter at relatively young ages in the minors, so there could be something here. The speed is still the main attraction as he has seven steals in nine games, but if he can just be an average-ish hitter, that makes the whole profile a lot more enticing. | | Ty France, 1B, Mariners (45%) – The power hasn't been there yet for France, who has just one extra-base hit despite hitting .379 through the first eight games of the season. But it feels like it's just a matter of time before he starts hitting the ball over the fence, because he's hitting it extremely hard right now – 95.7 mph average exit velocity and a 63.2% hard-hit rate are off-the charts marks. France went to Driveline to work on his bat speed this offseason, and we're seeing signs that it paid off, even if it hasn't shown up in the box score. Add him before it's too late. | | Graham Ashcraft , SP, Reds (49%) – I'm gonna be honest with you here: I'm not buying it with Ashcraft. I'll list him here because, well, there weren't a lot of viable waiver-wire targets from Monday's game, and he did have six strikeouts and 16 whiffs, the second-highest total of the day among all pitchers for the latter category. However, he also gave up a ton of hard contact en route to five earned runs on nine hits. He always feels like a pitcher who should be better than he is, but he just hasn't gotten the kind of consistent whiffs or weak contact you'd expect from his wicked stuff. Against the right matchups, he can be useful, but I'm not recommending him enthusiastically here. | | | | News and Notes | | Framber Valdez was scratched with elbow soreness. He was set to start Monday against the Rangers, but he complained of soreness near the top of his elbow after playing catch Sunday, and he's set to visit doctors to get the issue checked out. Astros manager Joe Espada did note that, "the fact we didn't put him on the IL is a good sign," but I'll wait for a more expert opinion before I breathe a sigh of relief. Hopefully it's nothing, but you can't blame me for being pessimistic, can you? | | Gerrit Cole played catch without issue Monday. It's the first time he's done any throwing since he was diagnosed with nerve irritation in his right elbow. He's not eligible to return until late May, and at this point, anything I get from him is a bonus. | | CJ Abrams has missed three straight due to a bone bruise on his left pinky but hopes to return to the lineup on Tuesday. He was able to do a bunch of baseball activities during pregame warmups, hopefully a sign that he's going to be fine. | | Jordan Romano threw a live batting practice Sunday. The Blue Jays are still determining what the next steps will be, but if he goes on a rehab assignment, he could be back soon from his elbow injury. | | Josh Jung was moved to the 60-day IL, which makes sense. He's expected to miss 8-10 weeks with a broken wrist. | | Tommy Edman was cleared by a doctor Monday to begin baseball activities. There is no timetable for his return to action, and I'd be surprised if we saw him before May after he missed much of spring training. | | Lars Nootbaar was not activated Monday and will instead resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A on Tuesday. He could be back within a few days if all goes well. | | Willson Contreras was originally in the Cardinals lineup Monday and then was once again scratched due to lingering hand soreness. Manager Oliver Marmol said he's confident Contreras will return Tuesday. | | Justin Verlander will throw a bullpen Wednesday and will have another minor-league rehab start this weekend. He gave up six earned runs in his first rehab start Sunday, but his velocity was down just 0.8 mph from last season on his fastball, a good sign as he works his way back. | | Edward Cabrera is scheduled to make his third rehab start with Triple-A on Wednesday, while Braxton Garrett is scheduled to make a second rehab start Friday at Triple-A. Ryan Weathers, AJ Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer might all be pitching for their jobs with those two on the verge of returning. | | Taijuan Walker will begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A on Thursday, and will probably need several turns through the rotation before he comes back from his shoulder issue. | | Jonathan India was scratched from the lineup after being hit with a ball in his left leg during batting practice. Hopefully it isn't going to be a serious issue, as X-rays were negative and he is considered day to day at this point. He took some batting practice swings after the injury. | | Nick Lodolo is set for his season debut Saturday against the White Sox. He's 74% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues and is worth targeting ahead of Turnbull and Ashcraft, in my opinion. | | Michael Conforto was out of Monday's lineup due to a minor side issue. | | Justin Foscue was placed on the IL with a left oblique strain. The Rangers have had some bad injury luck in the early going here. | | Chase Silseth was placed on the IL with elbow inflammation and Jose Soriano will take his place in the rotation. Soriano probably won't be relevant for Fantasy outside of very deep leagues. | | The Twins recalled Jose Miranda but he's mostly expected to be a part-time player. He impressed as a rookie in 2022 but then came crashing back to earth last year. There's some post-hype sleeper potential here, but he needs to prove himself again. | | The Red Sox signed prospect Ceddanne Rafaela to an eight-year extension worth $50 million, which buys out his arbitration years and the first two years of free agency. Rafaela hasn't done much so far in his MLB career, sporting a .672 OPS in 48 games, but he's a defensive wiz with plenty of athleticism, and this is a pretty strong vote of confidence. | | Monday standouts | | Luis Castillo, Mariners @TOR: 5 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – The dome was closed at the Rogers Centre Monday night, so we can't blame the cold for this one. I know that seems flippant, but I just can't bring myself to express much concern about Castillo, whose stuff mostly looks like we expect it to and who has hardly given up a ton of loud contact. We've seen stretches like this from Castillo – most notably in 2021, when he had an ERA north of 7.00 as late as June 1 – and he always figures it out. Why wouldn't he this time? | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks @COL: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – This was the highest Gallen's velocity has been through three starts, which is a promising sign, even if the results themselves were kind of mixed. It's worth remembering that he was pitching in Coors Field, and basically ditched his slider and changeup in this one and still got solid results. I still have my concerns from Gallen's first couple of starts, but I have no complaints about this one. | | Blake Snell, Giants vs. WAS: 3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Well, he didn't exactly hit the ground running, but Snell's velocity was more or less fine, considering his delayed start, so I don't really have any concerns here. Sure, missing Spring Training might just wreck Snell's season, and maybe this mediocre start was our first sign of that. But even when Snell is going well, he's prone to these weird, inefficient, ineffective outings from time to time. No concerns from me. | | Jesus Luzardo, Marlins @NYY: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 4 K – Luzardo wasn't good in this one, and he has yet to get through six innings in any of his first three starts, which isn't a great sign. I don't love that 17:9 K:BB ratio, either. But he's earned a longer leash than three starts before we start to worry about Luzardo, especially with his stuff mostly looking fine. That being said, I would like to see his velocity tick back up, as he's been down around 1 mph with his fastball so far. | | Jose Berrios, Blue Jays vs. SEA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Just like the guys ahead of him have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to slow starts, Berrios is enough of a known commodity that it doesn't make much sense to react to a strong start. That cutter he was working on this spring has mostly been a non-factor in the early going, so we can't even really point to much tangle that has changed beyond a mild increase in velocity. He's a very solid innings eater, but I don't see much reason to think Berrios has taken some big step forward. | | Bailey Ober, Twins vs. LAD: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – This was exactly the kind of bounceback we needed to see from Ober against a very tough Dodgers lineup. And, even though he was rolling, I can't exactly blame the Twins for pulling him when they did to avoid seeing more of that lineup for a third time. He'll pitch deeper into games more regularly moving forward, so I'm viewing this as an unambiguously positive sign after Ober's disastrous debut last week. | | Mitch Keller, Pirates vs. DET: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – This was another nice bounceback that should help soothe some of your concerns after two poor starts in a row to open the season. Keller isn't an ace, but I have faith in him to solve whatever issues arise throughout the season, and he's a solid SP4 type in the long run, even if it might be a bumpy ride at times. | | Nestor Cortes, Yankees vs. MIA: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – The Marlins are a pretty cake matchup right now, but that made it even more important for Cortes to have a strong start after he looked pretty pedestrian in his first two starts. His velocity is still down from last season, a red flag after he dealt with shoulder issues, but at least in this one, it didn't matter. I'm still a little wary, but Cortes saved himself from being dropped in countless leagues with this outing, at least. | | Charlie Morton, Braves vs. NYM: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K – At least in Roto leagues, I think I'm ready to just drop Morton at this point. He hasn't been terrible to open the season, but I just don't really see much upside here anymore, given how much his control has regressed the past few seasons. He's going to hurt you in WHIP, and I'm expecting his ERA to end up over 4.00 before long, which basically means he's a volume play for strikeouts and wins. I wouldn't just drop him for anyone, necessarily, but if you're in one of the 30% of CBS Fantasy leagues where Mackenzie Gore is still available, I'd make that swap. | | Triston McKenzie, Guardians vs. CHW: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – I'm rooting for McKenzie, but I just don't see a lot to be optimistic about right now. His velocity was down 1.1 mph on his fastball, and he only got six whiffs against a White Sox team that should be overmatched against pretty much every competent pitcher without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. With just four strikeouts in nine innings so far this season, I'm just not sure McKenzie is a good bet to recapture that 2022 upside. | | Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds – De La Cruz is a hilarious player. He has a .961 OPS after his two-homer game Monday – one of them was an inside-the-parker on a misplayed fly ball for what it's worth – while striking out 42% of the time. And he's on a roughly 90-steal pace after adding his sixth in 10 games, too. He's a player defined by extremes, and while he obviously needs to strike out a lot less than he has so far, he's also fun as heck, and a super valuable Fantasy option even without the rough edges being sanded down. | | Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – Spring Training ain't real life. Langford had two hits, a run, and an RBI Monday, and he desperately needed a good game, because he's still hitting just .256/.298/.326 in his first 10 career games. The good news is, Langford is showing solid plate discipline and elite athleticism despite his early struggles, so I hardly think he's been overwhelmed so far. I have faith he'll figure things out before long as he figures out how to put his tools into play more consistently. | | Anthony Volpe , SS, Yankees – The good news is, Volpe has made huge strides with his plate discipline so far, cutting his strikeout rate down to 21.4% through 10 games after he struck out 27.8% of the time as a rookie. And his reworked swing has generated a ton of line drives, a significant improvement over the fly-ball heavy swing that led to his dreadful batting average last season. But despite hitting a homer Monday, I do worry that Volpe has potentially gone too far in the opposite direction that might make it tough for him to hit for much power – he's barely pulling the ball now, and his quality of contact metrics like expected wOBA on contact have gone in the wrong direction. If he keeps running (three steals, one CS in 10 games), it might not matter, but I'm not necessarily sure I buy the apparent breakout here. | | Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies – I'm not sure I buy it, but I'd be remiss if I continued to ignore McMahon's ridiculous start to the season. He went 3 for 5 Monday against the Diamondbacks to raise his season line to .415/.468/.610, and he's hitting the ball a lot harder in the early going while also cutting his strikeout rate to 23.4%, which would be the lowest mark of his career. I suspect it's just a hot streak for the 29-year-old, but he merits a mention here, at least. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Eye on College Basketball | Only 8 teams remain in the fight for the UEFA Champions League trophy. Watch as the battle continues today with Arsenal taking on Bayern on CBS and all matches streaming on Paramount+.
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