| For a sense of the prevailing mood in Canadian politics, watch this Liberal party ad, featuring Mark Carney and former the Dr Evil, Mike Myers (pictured above). The two appear in Canada hockey shirts at an ice rink, where Carney interrogates Myers about his Canadian credentials with a series of pop culture questions, before Myers responds: “Let me ask you, Mr Prime Minister: will there always be a Canada?” Carney replies: “There will always be a Canada.” “All right!” says Myers. “Elbows up!” That’s a reference to the hockey shorthand for “protect yourself” that has become a rallying cry for Canadian efforts to fight back against Donald Trump – and probably as close to as universally popular a political slogan as you are likely to find in 2025. “It got 10m views in less than 24 hours, which is unheard of in Canadian politics,” Leyland Cecco said. “Politics is secondary – but everyone is talking about the US tariffs, and Trump’s 51st state threat. The hockey stuff would be written off as too cute in any other election, but this time, it works.” Why has Carney called an election now? In theory, Carney could have waited until October, the deadline for the next election. But in calling a snap vote for 28 April, he has bet on seeking a mandate as Donald Trump’s tariffs start to bite. “He has opted for the shortest possible campaign,” Leyland said. “Party insiders and analysts think he has the momentum. The country doesn’t really know who he is – and that could go either way in a longer campaign, so let’s harness the goodwill now.” Another factor may be the peculiar circumstances of his prime ministership: he is only the second person to hold the job without being a member of parliament, a position that leaves him vulnerable to attack as absent from the real business of government. After parliament was prorogued – suspended – when Trudeau announced his resignation, it was due to return yesterday, “and Carney would have been dealing with a hostile parliament ready to bring the government down, and the bad optics of not being able to attend himself”, Leyland said. “The Liberals have looked at the writing on the wall, and decided to seize the moment.” What has Carney done as prime minister so far? “More than half of Carney’s speech announcing the election was dedicated to the idea that Canada is under attack,” Leyland said. “He said: ‘Donald Trump wants to break us so America can own us.’ That would have been unfathomable not long ago.” He also sought to present his brief tenure so far as evidence of his ability to act decisively, setting out work on security arrangements with Australia, France and the UK, discussions on a new trading arrangement with the EU, an end to the unpopular carbon tax and plans for legislation to remove federal barriers to internal trade. The motif that he returned to as he described these measures: “We are stronger together.” “He’s moved really fast,” Leyland said. “He made symbolic trips to France and the UK, in a nod to that part of Canada’s history, and he’s pivoted the party towards the centre. The carbon tax was a very unpopular policy, and now gas prices are going to drop pretty significantly a couple of weeks into the campaign. That was a key Conservative attack. For someone who is not a career politician, he’s done some very political things.” In the Globe and Mail, columnist Robyn Urback described his pilfering of Poilievre’s policies as “the other guy’s ideas, without the other guy”. How have the odds shifted in recent weeks? From 2023 until 15 February, CBC News’ polling analysis gave the Liberals a chance of less than 1% of winning a majority. Now, the same projection gives them a 78% chance of victory. And opinion poll averages that had the Liberals 23 points behind the Conservatives two months ago now put them a sliver ahead. “It’s hard to communicate the head-spinningly unprecedented nature of this swing,” Leyland said. That shift is down to two things: the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the unpopular Liberal prime minister of more than nine years – who then enjoyed a sudden renaissance just as he passed the baton; and Donald Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric, however ludicrous, about absorbing Canada as a 51st US state. “It looked for a long time like Trudeau had stayed too long,” Leyland said. (See this January analysis piece for more on the logic for that view.) “Now, with the way it’s played out, it looks like it may have been the best possible timing to leave.” How have the Conservatives responded? With difficulty. Pierre Poilievre’s appeal to his party’s base was to a large extent predicated on the degree to which his style resembled Trump’s, whether in insulting nicknames for opponents or relentless attacks on the media. That brand of politics won him the endorsement of Elon Musk. Now it looks more like an albatross. Poilievre has sought to reposition himself as Trump’s hostility to Canada has increased, and said he would strongly oppose American tariffs; he has also tried to argue that “the lost Liberal decade has made our economy weaker and more divided, just like Trump wanted”. But a measure of the Conservatives’ tricky political position can be found in a shift in their slogan – and how problematic it still is: from “Canada is broken”, which now sounds alarmingly sympathetic to Trump’s analysis, to “Canada first” – which still inevitably reminds voters of the parallels between the two leaders. Still, Leyland added: “I don’t want to write Poilievre off. He is a very effective retail politician, good with crowds, and his message resonated for a long time. This is an election where the campaign could really matter.” Poilievre has not been helped by an interview given to the rightwing US outlet Breitbart by the Conservative premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, in which she said that the tariff war had hurt Poilievre and added: “I would hope that we could put things on pause, is what I’ve told administration officials. Let’s just put things on pause so we can get through an election.” “She really hurt his campaign,” Leyland said. “Poll after poll asking who is best equipped not to sell Canada out to the US finds Carney way ahead. That issue is the biggest challenge Conservatives face.” What about the other parties? The Liberal resurgence has been bad news for the smaller parties, too, with both Bloc Québécois, the pro-independence regional party, and the progressive leftwing New Democratic party (NDP) both seeing a sharp decline in support. For Bloc Québécois, the problem is rooted in Quebec’s heavy reliance on trade with the US – and in a sense that defending Quebecers’ identity, or even seeking independence one day, rely first on a robust freedom from US influence. “The biggest jump in Canadian patriotism has been in Quebec,” Leyland said. “The usual feeling is that you need a strong Bloc if you feel Quebec’s interests are under threat. Now the fear is that without a strong federal government, everyone’s in trouble.” The NDP, meanwhile, is haemorrhaging support to the Liberals. One hypothesis is that many of its previous supporters prefer the NDP, but now see that preference as outweighed by the threat from Trump. “People are abandoning the NDP,” Leyland said. “But they will still hope that criticisms of Carney for tacking toward the centre will land, and some voters decide that parliament needs a stronger left voice.” Even if the momentum appears to be firmly with Carney, there is still time for that to change. “He has never really been seriously tested as a politician, so the debates [on April 16 and 17] will be very closely watched,” Leyland said. “And it’s possible that he won’t show the endurance needed for a relentless campaign. You can imagine him coming off as too technocratic. The shift towards the Liberals is remarkable – but it is by no means a coronation.” | 