HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Still united? Some observers feared Brexit would spark a domino effect — and indeed, the far right has backed a Frexit in France and a Swexit in Sweden. But those voices have largely been silenced, perhaps after dire predictions of what awaits Britain when it leaves the EU on March 29, 2019. Experts say smaller countries have instead focused on coalition building with like-minded states to stand out among giants like France and Germany. There's also been a fresh political impetus to pursue social and economic reforms, such as the French attempt to further centralize the eurozone. Still, populists in France and Austria are reportedly working together to dominate next year’s European Parliament elections, which could change — or dismantle — the EU from the inside.

Searching for their voice. There’s encouraging news for federalists: A poll conducted last month revealed that the bloc enjoys the highest levels of support among Europeans since 1983. Before the Brexit vote, only 37 percent said they believed their voice counted in the EU; after the referendum, that figure jumped to 48 percent. Still, most Europeans continue to believe they have the biggest say at home: Around 63 percent agree their voice counts at the national level rather than in the EU.

Growing pains. Given its political difficulties with current member states, the EU appears to have paused expansion efforts, which might lead to unintended consequences: For example, Serbia’s pro-European president, Aleksandar Vucic, has lost some incentive to mend fences with Kosovo in one of the Continent’s more bitter ongoing conflicts. Meanwhile, stalled membership for Turkey — thanks largely to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies — might result in even more antagonistic relations between Erdogan and his European peers.

Fear not, Euro-skeptics. Critics of deeper European integration have used the term “federalism” as a pejorative, warning of a powerful European superstate with a heavy-handed central government with the ability to trump national laws. But observers say any association of countries into a hierarchy of states akin to a “United States of Europe” isn’t feasible. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker suggested last year that they further centralize his role but met a cold reception from European leaders.

WHAT TO READ

What Happens Next if Theresa May's Brexit Deal Passes? by Jennifer Rankin and Lisa O’Carroll in The Guardian
"Nobody knows whether the British parliament will support this deal. Some EU member states may also raise problems, although all players have agreed that the true hurdle lies in London, not EU capitals.”

Is Europe Falling Apart? by Michael Hirsh in Foreign Policy
“According to Harold James, a Princeton University historian who specializes in Europe, what both the Italy and U.K. cases ‘really show is how absolutely impossible it is to try to leave the EU. And what bad things would happen if you try to do that.”’

WHAT TO WATCH